StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

The FoxDen Forum : Powered by vBulletin version 2.3.0 The FoxDen Forum > Sports Handicapping, Trends, and Stats > nba playoffs
Search The Fox Den Forum:

Subscribe to this Thread
Pages (2): [1] 2 »

Last Message   Next Message
    
Author
Message    Post A Reply
doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3374

nba playoffs

By: LT Profits Sports Group | www.sbrforum.com

The 2013 NBA Playoffs begin in about a week on Saturday, April 20th, and as we usually like to do at this time of year, we have gone back and analyzed each round of the playoffs individually over the last 10 years, and this week we are presenting our results for the first round.

All results discussed in this article are based on the closing odds from Pinnacle Sports for every NBA Playoff games since the 2003 Playoffs which followed the 2002-03 season. The first round should have the most mismatches, and indeed, blindly betting on favorites in the first round has been fairly profitable in those last 10 years going at 225-192-18, 54.0 percent against the spread.

As you might expect, these first round favorites have been even better bets at home, going an extremely solid 180-149-14, 54.7 percent ATS, and the first round home chalk was right around that 10-year average last season going 19-16-1, 54.3 percent ATS. The one-seeds and two seeds combined to go 7-3, 70.0 percent ATS as home favorites in the opening round last year, but more on that later.

Now one method for betting the NBA Playoffs that has gained popularity over the years is the Zigzag Theory, which says to bet on the team that lost the previous game since that team should play with a greater sense of desperation in the following game. Well, the Zigzag as a whole has lost its juice, probably because it has become too popular and books have adjusted, and thus this method is just 177-164-18, 51.9 percent the last 10 playoff seasons.

However, the NBA betting breakdown of the Zigzag over that time is actually interesting as it has gone a solid 104-89-10, 53.9 percent ATS if the team that lost its last game is now home, but only 73-75-8 ATS if the zigzagging team is now on the road.

As for the totals, they say that defense wins championships and the performance of the ‘under’ in the last 10 first rounds helps bear that out as it has gone a slightly profitable 450-395-24, 53.3 percent. Very interestingly though and contrary to the Zigzag Theory for point spreads, the ‘under’ is a lucrative 203-156-8, 56.5 percent in the first round if the teams went ‘under’ in the previous game.

Now let us take a look and the various trends for each individual seeding matchup in the first round since the 2003 Playoffs.

1-seed vs. 8-seed: Bookmakers are not dumb and they have shaded the lines of the one-seeds enough that they have gone just 52-47-4, 52.5 percent ATS in the first round overall, so the Miami Heat and either the Oklahoma City Thunder or San Antonio Spurs will not be obvious bets every game this season.

This round matchup has been dominated by the home teams, regardless of who is home, as these homers have gone 61-38-4, 61.6 percent ATS overall! The one seeds are a scintillating 33-19-3, 63.5 percent ATS at home including 4-1 last season, but the eights have done very well as hosts also going 28-19-1, 59.6 percent ATS.

This has been a good matchup for the home standing Zigzag as home teams off a loss are a combined 29-19-2, 60.4 percent ATS overall. As you might expect, the one-seeds have been brilliant in that role at 10-3-1, 76.9 percent ATS, but the eight-seeds are also profitable at 19-16-1, 54.3 percent ATS at home off a loss.

The favorites are a nice 56-42-4, 57.1 percent ATS in this round, and believe it or not, that includes the eight-seeds going 8-3, 72.7 percent as favorites! The one-seeds are 48-39-4, 55.2 percent ATS in the chalk role.

2-seed vs. 7-seed: Unlike the one-seeds, the two-seeds have performed very well blindly in the first round over the last 10 years at 58-39-8, 59.8 percent ATS overall. Last year’s two-seeds, the Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder, went a combined 6-3, 66.7 percent ATS in the first round on their way to an eventual meeting in the NBA Finals.

The Zigzag theory has not worked well in general in this series, going only 38-42-8 ATS overall. It has however held up well for the two-seeds, as they are 15-7-4, 68.2 percent ATS off of a loss. The seven-seeds, on the other hand are an awful 23-35-4 ATS in that circumstance.

As you may have gathered by the overall record of the two-seeds in this round, it has not really mattered if they were favorites (49-34-5, 59.0 percent ATS) or if they are underdogs (9-5-3, 64.3 percent ATS).

3-seed vs. 6-seed: This series has been practically a coin flip with the three-seeds going 57-53-2 ATS overall. The two three-seeds in the playoffs this season are going in opposite directions coming in, as the Indiana Pacers out of the East are floundering after once looking like the biggest threat to Miami, while whoever gets the three-seed in the West between the Denver Nuggets and the Memphis Grizzlies will be coming in on a roll.

Besides not much going on from an overall standpoint in this series, the teams have not had too much of a home court advantage either with the three-seeds going 32-28-1 ATS and the six seeds going 25-25-1 ATS on their respective home courts.

One thing that has worked well in this series, at least for the three-seeds, is the Zigzag Theory. Three-seeds are 21-16-1, 56.8 percent ATS off a loss overall in the opening round including an excellent 12-6-1, 66.7 percent ATS when the Zigzag comes at home.

Perhaps the best bet of all though in the opening round three-seed vs. six-seed series has been the ‘under’, as it is a lucrative 60-46-6, 56.6 percent over the past 10 seasons. Furthermore, the under is 31-18-1 for a fabulous 63.3 percent in this matchup if the teams went ‘under’ in their previous game.

4-seed vs. 5-seed: Now theoretically, these four-seed vs. five-seed matchups should be the most evenly matched of the playoffs, and that has indeed been the case since 2003 with the losers seeded five-seeds holding the razor thin 58-56 ATS advantage. The two four vs. five matchups last season were par for the course with the Clippers and Grizzlies going the full seven games in the West and the Celtics and Hawks going six games in the East.

This has been another series where the home court advantage has been no help from a betting standpoint as the five-seeds are 28-26 ATS at home while the four-seeds are 30-30 ATS in their own buildings.

Finally, one would think that the Zigzag Theory would work best in this four seed vs. five seed matchup, as logically this series features the two teams that are closest in talent and thus should be the hardest series to go on a winning streak. . Well, that has not been the case, as the Zigzag is just 50-45-2, 52.6 percent ATS overall, and the Home Zigzag is just 28-26-3 ATS.

Old Post 04-18-13 11:36 AM
doubled1511 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for doubled1511 Click here to Send doubled1511 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3374

Allen Moody
Sports Gambling Guide


2013 NBA Playoff First Round Betting Trends
The NBA regular season is rapidly winding down and most of the playoff spots have been wrapped up, with a few teams still fighting for position. Every year around this time I like to look at betting trends that have developed in the playoffs and for the most part, we've seen a continuation of the majority of them from one year to the next. There are always exceptions, however, but there haven't been any large trend reversals taking place in the past few years.

Because the first round of the NBA playoffs are different, in that you will often find teams hovering near .500 playing the elite teams in the league, it's always good to look at first round betting trends separately, as opposed to just looking at the post-season in general.

Looking at our customary breakdown since the start of the 2007-08 playoffs, we'll see the following:
Home Favorite of 2.5 or less points: 12-9
Home Favorite of 3 to 5.5 points: 37-29
Home Favorite of 6 to 9.5 points: 28-32-2
Home Favorite of 10 to 14.5 points: 11-13
Home Favorite of 15 or more points 1-1
Smaller home favorites of less than six points have been decent wagers over the past five years, going 49-38 or 56.3% against the spread, but once you get to spreads higher than that there is a definite drop off, although not enough of a drop off to consider betting the other way.

Moving to the road teams we'll see the following betting trends:
Road Favorite of 2.5 or less points: 4-8-1
Road Favorite of 3 to 5.5 points: 14-7-1
Road Favorite of 6 to 9.5 points: 1-6
Road Favorite of 10 to 14.5 points: 1-0
The road favorites have either been feast or famine, as they have either done very well ATS or very poorly depending on the category being looked at. Combined, road favorites are pretty much a 50-50 proposition and blindly betting on them or against them would show a flat-bet loss, which is exactly what the sportsbooks want to see.

Totals
Going ahead and jumping into totals, we'll see that games have gone under more often than not, as all games are 89-125-4, which translates to 58.4% of the games going under. Moving ahead to our totals breakdown:
Total of 169.5 or less: 0-1
Total of 170 to 179.5: 9-19-1
Total of 180 to 184.5: 19-17
Total of 185 to 189.5: 22-25
Total of 190 to 194.5: 16-27-1
Total of 195 to 199.5: 11-11
Total of 200 to 204.5: 5-14
Total of 205 to 209.5: 1-5-2
Total of 210 to 214.5: 4-2
Total of 215 to 219.5: 1-1
Total of 220 or more: 1-3

Here, we see some definite betting trends when it comes to totals and the various groupings. The first thing that jumps out at you is the strong tendency of the games with posted totals of under 180 to go under. Basically, if the oddsmaker is telling you to expect an extremely low-scoring game, that's what you're going to get.

The next thing that stands out is the exact opposite situation, where the posted totals are 200 or more, and the tendency those games also have of going under the total, with a combined over/under record of 12-25 or 32.4%.

Old Post 04-18-13 11:47 AM
doubled1511 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for doubled1511 Click here to Send doubled1511 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3374

Allen Moody
Sports Gambling Guide

The second round of the playoffs obviously has fewer games to analyze than the first, but there definitely have been some noticeable betting trends that have stood out in the second round, often in direct contrast to the first round and what has taken place there.

Using my Stat Attack NBA 2012-13 program, I discovered that the home teams were definitely getting the best of the visiting teams, going 74-36 straight up and a solid 66-42-2 ATS.

Breaking it down, home favorites were an impressive 60-30-1 against the spread, while home underdogs were a poor 6-12-1. Common sense would appear to dictate that underdogs in the second round should perform better--as most of the weaker teams should have been eliminated in the first round--but that hasn't been the way things have panned out and it's one of the reasons that makes sports betting such a fascinating endeavor.

Looking at our customary breakdown:
Home Favorite of 2.5 or less points: 15-5
Home Favorite of 3 to 5.5 points: 12-9-1
Home Favorite of 6 to 9.5 points: 26-16
Home Favorite of 10 to 14.5 points: 7-0

Home favorites performed well in all categories, especially as extremely small or larger favorites. It was a bit surprising to see double-digit favorites doing so well, as you would think large underdogs in the second round would put up a better fight, but they've lost by an average of more than 20 points.

Home Underdog of 2.5 or less points: 2-8
Home Underdog of 3 to 5.5 points: 1-3
Home Underdog of 6 to 9.5 points: 3-1
Home Underdog of 10 to 14.5 points: 0-0-1

The larger home underdogs, of six or more points did well, although the sample size is just five games, but the smaller home dogs were pretty bad, going just 3-11.

Totals
Switching over to totals, we'll see that all games have gone 57-51-2, which is a direct contrast to the first round, where games fell under the number more often than not.

Moving ahead to our totals breakdown:
Total of 170 to 179.5: 13-7
Total of 180 to 184.5: 7-11
Total of 185 to 189.5: 10-10
Total of 190 to 194.5: 11-9
Total of 195 to 199.5: 3-10
Total of 200 to 204.5: 3-1
Total of 205 to 209.5: 5-1-1
Total of 210 to 214.5: 5-1-1
Total of 215 to 219.5: 0-1

There are definitely two clusters that jump out and grab your attention; the totals less than 179.5, as well as the group of games that had a posted total of at least 200, which are a combined 13-4-2. The interesting aspect of 180 to 184.5 grouping is that games with a total of 183 to 184.5 were 1-6, meaning that all games with a total of 182.5 or less were 19-12, a bit more than 60% over.

Old Post 04-18-13 11:47 AM
doubled1511 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for doubled1511 Click here to Send doubled1511 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3374

Allen Moody
Sports Gambling Guide

NBA Totals in the Playoffs
The NBA playoffs have a reputation for being a time when teams pick up the defensive intensity and play hard-nosed basketball. Few shots go uncontested, as it's better to send somebody to the free throw line with a hard foul than it is to let them have an easy breakaway.

If the premise holds true, we would expect to see most of the totals going under, so we'll take a look at history and see if there's any merit to that trend.

The first thing we'll do is look at regular season vs. post-season numbers. If we go all the back 20 years, we'll find that in regular season games overs are 11162-11102-277 against the spread, meaning that 50.1% of the games went over. Teams averaged 98.4 points per game compared to just 95.0 points per game in the playoffs. As a result totals were 720-797-27 in the playoffs, which is 47.5%.

Moving to the past 15 years, we see that regular season games were 8559-8463-248, making the overs come through 50.3% of the time, while teams averaged 97.0 points per game. Once the post-season rolled around, totals were 542-613-27 (46.9%) and scoring went down to 94.1 points per game.


Going back to the past 10 years, we'd see that regular season games were 5988-6028-159, seeing them drop below 50% for the first time, as teams averaged 97.7 points per game. The post-season numbers were 386-422-19 (47.8%) with scoring down to 95.1 points per game.


Things get a bit more interesting when we look at the past five seasons, as regular season games were 3010-3064-74 (49.6%), as teams scored 99.7 points per game. In the post-season, games were 184-218-11, which is just 45.8%, as scoring dipped to 95.5 points, a drop of 4.2 points per game from the regular season.


Finally, if we look at the past three regular seasons, we'd see scoring at 100 points per game, which is a bit surprising, as there seem to be more defensive-minded teams than ever, and totals were 1787-1858-43, which is 49%, the lowest of any figure. In the playoffs, scoring dropped to 96.1 points and totals were 113-127-8, or 47.1%, which is a bit of an increase from the five-year glance.


Changing Totals
While scoring goes down slightly and more games do go under the total than not in the playoffs, the oddsmaker does factor that into the playoff lines a bit, but the public has a big influence on the numbers, as well.

We'll use the New Orleans Hornets and Los Angeles Lakers from the 2010-11 season as an example. The two teams met four times during the regular season and three times the over/under was 188.5 and the other time the number was 190.5.


When the teams met in the playoffs, the over/under for the first game was just 182.5 and the game easily went over the total with a final score of 109-100. The total for the next game was up to 187, but this time the game easily went under the total with a final score of 87-78.


This time there was a knee-jerk reaction the other way, as the total plumeted to 180 for Game 3 and it went over with a final score of 100-86. The total was set at 183.5 for the fourth game and remained close to that for the remainder of the series.


Don't be afraid to go against the grain when you see a big move in the total from one game to the next. You would have been 10-7, or 58.8%, going against moves of four or more points over the past two seasons.

Old Post 04-18-13 11:56 AM
doubled1511 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for doubled1511 Click here to Send doubled1511 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Toby13
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2010
Posts: 9395

Thanks d1511.




TOBY

Old Post 04-18-13 03:19 PM
Toby13 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Toby13 Click here to Send Toby13 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3374

The NBA playoffs begin this weekend with first round action in the Eastern and Western Conferences.

Here is a look at some NBA playoff trends to consider for the first round.






Home Favorites

When it comes to betting in the NBA playoffs there is no doubt that the public likes to take the home teams. The public has done well betting small home favorites but big home favorites have been a loser. In the past five years home favorites of 5.5 points or less are 48-38 against the spread. When the number gets to six points or more the home chalk is not as good as they are 40-46-2 against the spread. What this means in the first round is that you have to be a little choosy when it comes to laying big points on the home teams.

Road Favorites

What about taking road favorites in the NBA playoffs? This sounds like a better idea but the numbers don’t work out well enough. In the past five years the road favorites in the first round of the playoffs are just 20-21-2 against the spread. It is pretty much a wash when it comes to betting road favorites in the NBA playoffs.

Totals

What if you just forget about the sides and focus on totals in NBA playoffs betting at Diamond sportsbook? Far too many gamblers simply look at the sides and forget all about the totals. And we have some good trends to consider with totals in the NBA playoffs. In the past five years if you simply bet every NBA playoff game under the total you would have cashed over 58% of the time. And that is by blindly taking every game under in NBA betting.

And when the total is really low, 179.5 or less, the numbers are even better as 20 of the 30 games with low totals have gone under with one push. And if you think that high totals mean games going over the total you would be wrong. About 2/3rd of the games with totals of 200 or more in the past five years in the NBA playoffs have gone under.

Old Post 04-18-13 08:46 PM
doubled1511 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for doubled1511 Click here to Send doubled1511 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3374

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
Boston at New York, 3:00 ETABC
Boston: 1-8 ATS off a loss by 15+ points
New York: 19-7 ATS at home after winning 3 of their last 4 games

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
Golden State at Denver, 5:30 ETESPN
Golden State: 1-10 ATS away off BB ATS wins
Denver: 12-1 ATS at home with a total of 210+ points

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
Chicago at Brooklyn, 8:00 ETESPN
Chicago: 16-6 ATS away with a total of 180 to 189.5 points
Brooklyn: 2-10 ATS at home playing with revenge

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
Memphis at LA Clippers, 10:30 ETESPN
Memphis: 20-10 ATS off a home win
LA Clippers: 7-0 Over as a home favorite of 6 points or less

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
Atlanta at Indiana, 1:00 ETTNT
Atlanta: 5-14 ATS playing their second game in five days
Indiana: 13-2 Under off 4+ ATS losses

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
LA Lakers at San Antonio, 3:30 ETABC
LA Lakers: 5-15 ATS as a road underdog
San Antonio: 10-1 ATS off a home loss

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
Milwaukee at Miami, 7:00 ETTNT
Milwaukee: 7-15 ATS revenging a loss by 10+ points
Miami: 27-13 ATS off a home game

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
Houston at Oklahoma City, 9:30 ETTNT
Houston: 0-8 ATS away off BB SU losses
Oklahoma City: 15-6 ATS off a SU loss

Old Post 04-19-13 01:03 AM
doubled1511 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for doubled1511 Click here to Send doubled1511 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3374

Making Money on Home Teams During the NBA Playoffs
Carlo Campanella
Sportspic.com

How important is home court advantage in the NBA? Well, the NBA Playoffs begin on April 20, but if they started today ALL 16 Playoff teams would own winning home records. In fact, even with the extremely long, 82 game Regular season basketball schedule where individual games aren't as important as in the 16 game NFL season, or as they are in the NBA Playoffs, but we still find 22 of the 30 NBA teams (73.3%) playing above the .500% win percentage on their home courts.

During the 2012 NBA Playoffs the home team posted a 58-26 SU record, or winning 70% of the Playoff games! These numbers show that it's tough to win on the road in NBA basketball, and even tougher to win on the road during the NBA Playoffs. I did some handicapping research and found 2 very profitable betting strategies that will build your bankroll during the NBA Playoffs. These betting strategies should be used as handicapping tools when you're analyzing the daily Playoff games.

The Basketball postseason lasts 2 months, so there are several betting strategies that can be wagered on several times during the NBA Playoffs. One of the most interesting situations comes "Playing on" Home Favorites after they lost a Playoff game as a Home Favorite. Handicapping basketball statistics and results tells us that it's tough to win on the road, so it must be extremely difficult to win back-to-back games on the road, especially during the Playoffs. That betting strategy would have been profitable during last year's NBA postseason when the L.A. Clippers faced Memphis. The Clippers opened the series by winning by a point, 99-98, at Memphis as point Dogs. However, professional bettors knew that it would be tough for the Clippers to win back-to-back road games, and it was, as the Clippers eventually lost Game #2, 105-98, as Memphis won and covered the 3 point spread.

Don't be scared away from backing larger home Favorites because they lost their previous Playoff game, as these "bigger Favorites" offer very profitable betting opportunities. Just as the Clippers upset Memphis, the Orlando Magic shocked Indiana in Game #1, 81-77, as 9 point Dogs. However, the shock didn't last long, as the classier Pacer team rebounded for the 15 point win, 93-78, in Game #2, easily covering the 9.5 point spread! A loss during the Playoffs can end a team's season, so a loss often "wakes" the better team up and they win the next game with authority.

Another betting strategy is to "Play on" Playoff Home Favorites after they won their previous game as a Road Favorite. If a team is favored to win on the road, and does win that Playoff game of the road, then they are clearly the better team. So it would reason that this better team will win again at home when they get home court advantage. This betting situation came up during last season's NBA Playoffs when Oklahoma City defeated an aging Lakers crew in L.A for Game #4, 103-100, as 2 point favorites. Professional bettors loaded up in Game #5, when Oklahoma City returned home as 7 point favorites. The Thunder dominated on their own court, beating the Lakers by 16 points, 106-90.

Astute basketball bettors should use these home team betting strategies when analyzing each day's Playoff games. As you can see, home court is an advantage during the NBA postseason and you should look for situations where the home team has added benefits, such as losing at home the night before, to wager on!

Old Post 04-19-13 01:05 AM
doubled1511 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for doubled1511 Click here to Send doubled1511 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
mikemac243
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2008
Posts: 1317

Thanks for posting this....

Good read. GL in the playoffs!

Old Post 04-19-13 12:27 PM
mikemac243 is online now Click Here to See the Profile for mikemac243 Click here to Send mikemac243 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3374

First Round Cheat Sheet
VegasInsider.com

Eastern Conference


(1) Miami vs. (8) Milwaukee

-- Miami (66-16 SU, 46-36 ATS)
-- Milwaukee (38-44 SU, 37-55 ATS)
-- Heat won season series, 3-1
-- Heat covered two of four meetings
-- The 'under' cashed three times

(2) New York vs. (7) Boston

-- New York (54-28 SU, 46-34-2 ATS)
-- Boston (41-40 SU, 36-42-3 ATS)
-- Knicks won season series, 3-1
-- Knicks covered three times, including twice at Boston
-- The 'under' cashed three times

(3) Indiana vs. (6) Atlanta

-- Indiana (49-32 SU, 42-39 ATS)
-- Atlanta (44-38 SU, 37-43-2 ATS)
-- The two teams split four meetings
-- Home team won each time, while Pacers won last two matchups
-- The 'over' hit in final three meetings, including twice at Indiana

(4) Brooklyn vs. (5) Chicago

-- Brooklyn (49-33 SU, 39-40-3 ATS)
-- Chicago (45-37 SU, 36-46 ATS)
-- Bulls won season series, 3-1
-- Bulls covered three times, including twice at Brooklyn
-- The 'under' cashed in three of four meetings

Western Conference


(1) Oklahoma City vs. (8) Houston

-- Oklahoma City (60-22 SU, 49-31-2 ATS)
-- Houston (45-37 SU, 41-40-1 ATS)
-- Thunder won season series, 2-1
-- Thunder covered two of three meetings, including two blowouts at home
-- The 'over' went 3-0 in season series

(2) San Antonio vs. (7) L.A. Lakers

-- San Antonio (58-24 SU, 39-41-2 ATS)
-- Los Angeles (45-37 SU, 34-45-2 ATS)
-- Spurs won season series, 2-1
-- Lakers covered twice, including Sunday's must-win contest at home
-- The 'under' hit all three times

(3) Denver vs. (6) Golden State

-- Denver (57-25 SU, 49-32-1 ATS)
-- Golden State (47-35 SU, 42-39-1 ATS)
-- Nuggets won season series, 3-1
-- Nuggets cashed three times, including twice at home
-- The 'over' hit in three of four meetings

(4) L.A. Clippers vs. (5) Memphis

-- Los Angeles (56-26 SU, 45-37 ATS)
-- Memphis (56-26 SU, (46-34-2 ATS)
-- Clippers won season series, 3-1
-- Clippers covered three times, including twice in Memphis
-- The 'under' hit in final three matchups

Old Post 04-20-13 05:20 AM
doubled1511 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for doubled1511 Click here to Send doubled1511 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3374

NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Preview: Round 1
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

The Eastern Conference playoffs are a complicated sandwich of sorts. On top you have the Miami Heat and on the bottom the Milwaukee Bucks. But in between is one of the tightest and most competitive groups in years.

Teams seeded No. 2 through No. 7 have just as much of a chance to make the conference finals as the clubs ranked above or below them. The Knicks, Pacers, Nets, Bulls, Hawks and Celtics are all capable of beating each other on any given night. That parity should open up value in the series prices and Eastern Conference futures market.

No. 1 Miami Heat vs. No. 8 Milwaukee Bucks

Season series: Heat won 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U

Series prices: Miami -6,000, Milwaukee +4,000

Why bet Miami: Why not? The Heat are hands down the class of the NBA and have been waiting for this moment since hoisting last year’s Larry O’Brien Trophy. Miami continued to build on its NBA-best record despite resting LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh over the final weeks of the schedule, and kept covering thanks to a deep and experienced bench.

Why bet the Bucks: Milwaukee has known its first-round opponent for some time now and has had plenty of tape to hammer out a game plan for the Heat. In their one win over Miami, the Bucks were able to force 22 turnovers. They rank second in the NBA in forcing turnovers (16.1) while the Heat coughed the ball up 14 times a night – fourth most in the league.

No. 2 New York Knicks vs. No. 7 Boston Celtics

Season series: Knicks won 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U

Series prices: New York -400, Boston +300

Why bet the Knicks: The Celtics were one of the few Eastern Conference playoff teams the Knicks beat up on, with N.Y. going 3-1 SU and ATS. New York defeated Boston by an average of more than 13 points in its three wins over the Celtics. The Knicks are also expected to have Tyson Chandler and Kenyon Martin back for the playoffs.

Why bet the Celtics: Boston has used a platoon of athletic guards – Avery Bradley, Courtney Lee and Jordan Crawford – to replace Rajon Rondo, giving the Celtics scoring depth off the bench. Boston also heads into the postseason with a heavy heart following the bombings at the Boston Marathon. The Celtics could step up as inspiration for a city in need of some good news.

No. 3 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 6 Atlanta Hawks

Season series: Split 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U

Series prices: Indiana -600, Atlanta +400

Why bet the Pacers: Indiana earned the No. 3 seed in the East despite having its star forward Danny Granger for just five games all season. The Pacers are a tough out at home, where they went 30-10 SU (22-18 ATS). They rebound well and play tight defense – two key components for any successful postseason run.

Why bet the Hawks: Indiana limped into the postseason with just one win in its final six games. The Hawks, who are a tough road team - 23-18 ATS - could steal a game or two in Indianapolis. The teams split their four games SU and ATS this year but Atlanta has been the better wager, going 10-4 ATS in their last 14 head-to-heads.

No. 4 Brooklyn Nets vs. No. 5 Chicago Bulls

Season series: Bulls won 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U

Series prices: Brooklyn -165, Chicago +145

Why bet the Nets: Brooklyn is peaking at the right time and a lot of that is due to Deron Williams. After playing much of the season injured, Williams is feeling good and was filling it up down the home stretch. The Nets were stellar in tight games this season, boasting a 9-4 SU record in games decided by three points or less and were 5-0 in overtime affairs.

Why bet the Bulls: Chicago has played its best ball against Eastern Conference playoff teams. The Bulls were 12-7 SU and 14-5 ATS versus teams seeded No. 2 through No. 7. The case isn’t completely closed on Derrick Rose’s possible return, but Chicago has managed to get along without him. The grimy Bulls are more than comfortable playing at the Nets’ slow-motion pace.

Old Post 04-20-13 05:21 AM
doubled1511 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for doubled1511 Click here to Send doubled1511 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3374

NBA Western Conference Playoff Preview: Round 1
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

It was a wild ride in the Western Conference and the fun won’t end with the regular season. Oklahoma City edged out San Antonio for the top seed while the L.A. Lakers, expected to run the table in the conference, squeaked into the No. 7 spot on the final night of the season.

The L.A. Clippers, Denver and Memphis have all looked like title contenders at times this year and Golden State and Houston are as dangerous as any team with their high-powered offenses. Needless to say, there are more surprises in store for the West during the postseason.

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 Houston Rockets

Season series: Thunder won 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 3-0 O/U

Series prices: Oklahoma City -2,000, Houston +1,200

Why bet the Thunder: Oklahoma City lost just seven games at home and went 27-14 ATS as a host this season. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are a handful for Houston’s porous defense and combined to average just under 50 points in the three games with the Rockets. Houston’s up-and-down game leads to a league-high 16.4 turnovers a game.

Why bet the Rockets: Houston can explode offensively and finished second in the NBA with 106 points per game. The Thunder have struggled in close games, going just 3-6 SU in contests decided by three points or less. And don’t forget about former OKC guard James Harden, who averaged more than 29 points in the three games versus his former club, including a 46-point performance in their last meeting.

No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers

Season series: Spurs won 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 0-3 O/U

Series prices: San Antonio -1,600, Los Angeles +1,000

Why bet the Spurs: San Antonio lost only six games at home all season while L.A. was terrible on the road, going 16-25 SU and 15-25-1 ATS. Spurs PG Tony Parker is going to be a handful for the Lakers’ unathletic duo of Steven Blake and Steve Nash, who is less than healthy. San Antonio shoots better than 79 percent from the foul line, L.A. shoots an NBA-worst 69.2 percent. No Kobe. Who makes the tough shots?

Why bet the Lakers: Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard is the best frontcourt tandem in the league and should push the Spurs around under the basket. Los Angeles was the second-best rebounding team in the NBA while San Antonio finished second last on the glass in the West. Lakers get Games 3, 4 and 6 at Staples Center, where they have lost just once since the All-Star break (13-1 SU, 7-6-1 ATS).

No. 3 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 6 Golden State Warriors

Season series: Nuggets won 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U

Series prices: Denver -600, Golden State +400

Why bet the Nuggets: Denver was the best home team in the NBA, going 38-3 SU and 28-13 ATS inside the thin air of the Pepsi Center. The Nuggets dominate the boards, ranking tops in the league in rebounding, especially on the offensive glass. Denver is tough to game plan for with seven active players averaging nine or more points. The Nuggets rolled into the postseason, losing only two of their final 10 games.

Why bet the Warriors: Golden State can bust a game wide open with its 3-point threats, topping the NBA from distance at 40.3 percent. Stephen Curry has been insane since his All-Star snub, averaging 26 points since the break. Andrew Bogut is getting back into shape and could be a problem for Denver down low, especially if Kenneth Faried continues to miss time.

No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies

Season series: Clippers won 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U

Series prices: Los Angeles -185, Memphis +145

Why bet the Clippers: Los Angeles brings momentum into the postseason, having won seven straight to end the year (5-2 ATS). The Clippers have the mental edge over Memphis, having won the season series and eliminated the Grizzlies in last year’s playoffs. L.A.’s athletic frontcourt of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan made life tough for Memphis leading scorer Zach Randolph last spring. The Clips thrive on turnovers, leading the league in steals and forcing opponents to cough the ball up 16.1 times per game.

Why bet the Grizzlies: Memphis’ slowed-down pace could keep the Clippers’ fastbreak in check and limit turnovers. The Grizzlies were the best team in the West at limiting turnovers, coughing the ball up just 14 times a game. Memphis has excelled in tight games, going 4-1 in overtime and 6-4 in games decided by three points or less. The Clippers were 0-2 in OT and just 3-5 in games decided by three or less.

Old Post 04-20-13 05:21 AM
doubled1511 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for doubled1511 Click here to Send doubled1511 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3374

NBA Playoff Primer
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com

With help from our trusted well-oiled database, let's examine four time-tested proven theories that have lined our pocket during the opening round of playoffs. All results are since 1991 unless noted otherwise.

Here's what the machine has to say...

No. 8 Seeds Are Behind The 8-Ball

For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the post-season. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.

Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they've lost over 70% of time (45-114) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks, the 2007 Golden State Warriors and last year's 2012 Philadelphia 76ers were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and advance to Round Two of the playoff.

And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch out of the match with alarming regularity, going 3-23 SU and 7-19 ATS, including 1-13 SU and 2-12 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a loss of 14 or more points in their last game.

Upset Losers Are Winners

No, it's not an oxymoron. Instead, it's a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.

That's confirmed by the fact that they are 56-35-4 ATS, a rock solid number. If they were upset at home in this round and return home they improve to 52-14 SU and 39-24-3 ATS, including 24-1 SU and 18-6-1 ATS when squaring off against a No. 6 or lower seed.

Don't be afraid of these chalkbusters. That's because they don't lose their composure. Instead they almost always elect to dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.

Double-Digit Dogma

Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 28-16-2 ATS in this role, including 17-8-1 ATS versus a non-division foe.

And if these same guys are involved in a game with the Over/Under total set at 193 or higher they zoom to 15-3 ATS.

Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.

And Down Goes Frazier

The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That's evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are wobbly and oftentimes one punch away from being counted out.

With glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 6-30 SU and 11-25 ATS away from home this round, including 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in lid-lifters.

Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are 3-23 SU and 7-19 ATS on their way to the canvas.

Golden Trend

The Golden State Warriors are 12-1-1 ATS as dogs or favorites of less than 3 points in the first round of the playoffs, including 8-0 ATS when taking 8 or less points.

Old Post 04-20-13 05:22 AM
doubled1511 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for doubled1511 Click here to Send doubled1511 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3374

What Bettors Need to Know: Celtics at Knicks, Bulls at Nets
By Covers.com

Boston Celtics at New York Knicks (-6.5, 190)

Carmelo Anthony won the league's scoring title and is in the discussion for the MVP award, but the superstar forward has a more pressing goal entering the postseason. Anthony has led his teams past the first round of the playoffs only once, and he will attempt to double that number when the No. 2 seed New York Knicks host the Boston Celtics on Saturday in Game 1 of their best-of-seven series. New York won the season series, 3-1.

While the Knicks were white-hot at the end of the season, winning 13 straight and 15 of 16 before Anthony and other key players took the final two games off, Boston staggered down the stretch. The Celtics dropped 11 of their last 16 while stars Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce took turns sitting out and trying to get healthy. Two of the losses - both by double digits - were against the Knicks in a six-day span last month. Boston won at New York in January, a game that ended with Anthony trying to confront Garnett before he boarded the team bus.

ABOUT THE CELTICS (41-40): Garnett (ankle) sat out 10 of the last 13 games, including the two losses to New York in late March. Given that he's Boston's most reliable source of offense among its big men and the team's best interior defender, his health is paramount for the Celtics. Pierce, who likely will be matched up against Anthony, missed three of the last eight games with his own ankle issues. He has also directed the offense at times after point guard Rajon Rondo suffered a season-ending knee injury in late January. Forward Jeff Green has assumed a larger offensive role since Rondo's injury and scored a combined 46 points in the last two meetings with the Knicks.

ABOUT THE KNICKS (54-28): Anthony bounced back from a knee injury in March with a torrid April, becoming the first player to score at least 35 points in six consecutive games. He averaged 25.3 points in four games against Boston but also put up 103 shots and connected on only 34.9 percent. Sixth man J.R. Smith was also magnificent during the 13-game run, putting up five 30-point games during that span, including 32 in a 100-85 victory at Boston on March 26. The Knicks received great news when ailing center Tyson Chandler pronounced himself 100 percent healthy for the playoffs. The 2011-12 Defensive Player of the Year had missed 16 of the last 20 games with a neck issue.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in Celtics’ last five overall.
* Celtics are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Knicks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. NBA Atlantic foes.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. New York's 54-28 record is the best by the franchise since 1996-97.

2. Boston, which has only one win over a .500 team since March 8, has advanced past the first round of the playoffs in each of the last five seasons.

3. The Knicks signed F Quentin Richardson earlier in the week. He has had altercations with both Pierce and Garnett in the past.


Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets (-4.5, 181.5)

The Brooklyn Nets have made a stunning transition since departing New Jersey and will open their first playoff series in six years when they host the Chicago Bulls on Saturday. The Eastern Conference series opener is the first major professional sports playoff game held in Brooklyn since the 1956 World Series, when the Dodgers played at Ebbets Field. The Bulls are playoff regulars, making their fifth straight appearance despite being without Derrick Rose the entire season.

Chicago has dealt with a series of injuries while playing well enough to land the fifth seed. The Bulls feel all the hurdles have prepared them for the postseason. “We’ve been thought a lot,” center Joakim Noah said. “We’ve been through a lot. There were a lot of distractions. There was a lot of adversity. A lot of injuries. Regardless of what was thrown at us, we fought hard through it all.” The fourth-seeded Nets had to convince point guard Deron Williams that the franchise was ready to rise to keep him in the offseason and now feel primed to win a series. “It’s good for us – the first season in Brooklyn to be in the playoffs,” Williams said. “That was the goal, and we accomplished that goal. But we’ve still got a ways to go.” Chicago won three of the four regular-season meetings.

ABOUT THE BULLS (45-37): Chicago overcame the loss of Rose, who suffered a major knee injury in last season’s playoffs, to again be part of the postseason. Noah has been bothered with injuries and was laboring down the stretch but plans to gut it out in the playoffs. “During the game, he feels fine,” Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau said. “I think he’s hopeful that he’ll get better and better as we go along. It’s the type of injury where he’s going to have to try to manage it as best as he can.” Chicago was third in the NBA in scoring defense (92.9) and will attempt to slow the pace against the Nets. Boozer averaged 21.3 points and 10.7 rebounds in three games against Brooklyn this season.

ABOUT THE NETS (49-33): Shooting guard Joe Johnson struggled against Chicago’s pesky defense and averaged just 13 points. Williams averaged 19.8 points and 6.8 assists against the Bulls while center Brook Lopez averaged 22 points. This version of the Nets might be new to the postseason but they feel they can make an impact. “I think we know how good we can be,” Brooklyn interim coach P.J. Carlesimo said. “We’ve had the roster intact at different times. We just need everybody healthy. The playoffs are a different animal – everything starts over.” Power forward Reggie Evans is a difference-maker on the boards and has grabbed 10 or more rebounds in each of his last 18 appearances.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in Nets’ last five overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Bulls’ last six road games.
* Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Three of the four regular-season meetings were decided by four or fewer points. Chicago won the other contest by 11 points.

2. Bulls C Joakim Noah (foot) has suffered a setback and is doubtful for Game 1.

3. The Nets last won a playoff game on May 16, 2007, when they beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Old Post 04-20-13 06:27 AM
doubled1511 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for doubled1511 Click here to Send doubled1511 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3374

What Bettors Need to Know: Warriors at Nuggets, Grizzlies at Clippers
By Covers.com

Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets (-7.5, 210.5)

The Denver Nuggets are on the shortlist of NBA title contenders due in part to their overwhelming homecourt advantage. The Nuggets will put that advantage to the test when they host the Golden State Warriors on Saturday in the opener of a first-round playoff series. Golden State had to battle until the last few minutes of the regular season to secure the No. 6 spot but enters the playoffs with little experience. The Nuggets will have their depth tested in the first round.

Denver lost leading scorer Danilo Gallinari for the rest of the season to a knee injury earlier this month and fierce rebounder Kenneth Faried went down with an ankle sprain in the final week. The Nuggets are listing Faried as questionable for Saturday but might need to have a backup plan for keeping David Lee off the boards. The Warriors had their own injury scare when Andrew Bogut went down with a sprained ankle, but the big man returned for the season finale on Wednesday and should be in the starting lineup for Game 1. Bogut’s presence in the paint is essential on the defensive end.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (47-35): Golden State is heading to the playoffs for the first time since 2007 and Bogut is the only starter with any postseason experience. Veterans like Jarrett Jack, Carl Landry and Richard Jefferson will come off the bench to support first-timers Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Lee. The Warriors have survived all season by playing an up-tempo pace that stops at the 3-point line, where Curry set the single-season record for made 3-pointers with 272. Thompson finished third in the league with 211 3-pointers and Jack offers a third reliable option from deep, which opens space on the inside for Lee to operate. Lee was the lone All-Star representative but Curry has taken over in the second half of the season and is becoming a star. The lanky point guard hit 11 3-pointers in a game at Madison Square Garden in February and knocked down nine at Los Angeles on April 12 to make his run at Ray Allen’s record possible over the last two games. Staying in front of Denver’s guards on defense, or at least forcing them to move toward Bogut in the middle, will be the big test for Curry in the series.

ABOUT THE NUGGETS (57-25): Denver went 38-3 at home and could probably match Golden State 3-point attempt for 3-point attempt if it wanted. Instead, the Nuggets force the pace and get all the way to the rim. Faried is one of the team’s best finishers in the paint but certainly not the only one. Faried went out three minutes into a win over Portland on Sunday and Denver still averaged 116 points in its final three contests, including the date with the Trail Blazers. The Nuggets will go 10 or 11 players deep with or without Faried and Gallinari and will use their altitude and depth to wear out the Warriors in the first two games. Denver took both of the meetings at home in the regular season by 11 points apiece. Curry went for 29 points in the last meeting on Jan. 13 but the Nuggets had nine players score at least eight points and outscored Golden State in the paint 58-32.

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Nuggets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Pacific foes.
* Over is 4-0 in Nuggets’ last four overall.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Lee led the NBA with 56 double-doubles, becoming the first Warriors player to lead the league in the category since Wilt Chamberlain in 1963-64.

2. Denver took three of the four meetings during the regular season, with the lone setback coming at Golden State on Nov. 29, 106-105.

3. Curry has hit 56.3 percent of his 3-point attempts in 12 career games against the Nuggets.


Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers (-5, 178)

The Los Angeles Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies engaged in a hard-fought playoff series last year and the Western Conference first-round series between the two teams should be just as competitive this time around. Game 1 is Saturday in Los Angeles between two clubs that each won 56 regular-season games to set franchise marks for victories in a season. The Clippers won the season series 3-1. Last season’s playoff series went seven games with Los Angeles prevailing.

The fourth-seeded Clippers won their last seven games while fifth-seeded Memphis won nine of its last 11 games. The Grizzlies win with defense and the Clippers are familiar with what looms. “We know that team very well,” guard Chauncey Billups said. “They’re going to play hard. They want to out-execute you. They want to pound you and rebound and throw it to their bigs inside and we’ve just got to be ready for them.” Memphis center Marc Gasol minimized the payback aspect of facing the Clippers. “We want to win,” Gasol said. “We want to win four games. We want to get into the second round. It is not about revenge.”

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (56-26): Memphis held an NBA-best 71 opponents under 100 points and led the NBA in scoring defense at 89.3 points per game. The Grizzlies are the first team to hold opponents under an average of 90 points since the 2005-06 campaign, when both Memphis and San Antonio did so. Gasol averaged 16.8 points and nine rebounds against the Clippers this season and power forward Zach Randolph averaged 14.8 points and 12 rebounds. Point guard Mike Conley has the tough task of dueling with All-Star Chris Paul. That didn’t go so well in the four regular-season meetings, when Conley shot just 30.2 percent while averaging 10.3 points and 5.8 assists.

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (56-26): Paul averaged 16.3 points and 8.7 assists in three games against Memphis. Sixth man Jamal Crawford had 29 points in one of the victories but had just two points on 1-of-10 shooting in Los Angeles’ lone loss. He averaged 14 points against the Grizzlies. Power forward Blake Griffin had some struggles against Randolph while averaging 13.8 points and seven rebounds. Los Angeles would like to get a big series from center DeAndre Jordan, who shot 65.5 percent against the Grizzlies while averaging 9.5 points and seven rebounds. Los Angeles topped 100 points against Memphis in one of the four games and scored 99 in another.

TRENDS:

* Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
* Under is 9-1 in Grizzlies’ last 10 overall.
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The teams split the two regular-season meetings at the Staples Center.

2. Memphis went 24-17 on the road this season, the first time the franchise has ever posted a winning mark.

3. The Clippers set a franchise mark with a 32-9 home record.

Old Post 04-20-13 06:28 AM
doubled1511 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for doubled1511 Click here to Send doubled1511 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3374

Boston at New York
Boston: 1-8 ATS off a loss by 15+ points
New York: 19-7 ATS at home after winning 3 of their last 4 games

Golden State at Denver
Golden State: 1-10 ATS away off BB ATS wins
Denver: 12-1 ATS at home with a total of 210+ points

Chicago at Brooklyn
Chicago: 16-6 ATS away with a total of 180 to 189.5 points
Brooklyn: 2-10 ATS at home playing with revenge

Memphis at LA Clippers
Memphis: 20-10 ATS off a home win
LA Clippers: 7-0 Over as a home favorite of 6 points or less

Atlanta at Indiana
Atlanta: 5-14 ATS playing their second game in five days
Indiana: 13-2 Under off 4+ ATS losses

LA Lakers at San Antonio
LA Lakers: 5-15 ATS as a road underdog
San Antonio: 10-1 ATS off a home loss

Milwaukee at Miami
Milwaukee: 7-15 ATS revenging a loss by 10+ points
Miami: 27-13 ATS off a home game

Houston at Oklahoma City
Houston: 0-8 ATS away off BB SU losses
Oklahoma City: 15-6 ATS off a SU loss

Old Post 04-20-13 06:32 AM
doubled1511 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for doubled1511 Click here to Send doubled1511 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3374

MILWAUKEE (38 - 45) at MIAMI (67 - 16) - 4/23/2013, 7:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 36-46 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) second half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 27-46 ATS (-23.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 47-36 ATS (+7.4 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 85-71 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 50-37 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
MIAMI is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
MIAMI is 26-16 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 6-6 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 8-4 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


BOSTON (41 - 41) at NEW YORK (55 - 28) - 4/23/2013, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 47-35 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games this season.
NEW YORK is 46-30 ATS (+13.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 9-8 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 11-6 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


GOLDEN STATE (47 - 36) at DENVER (58 - 25) - 4/23/2013, 10:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 49-34 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games this season.
DENVER is 34-25 ATS (+6.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
DENVER is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games this season.
DENVER is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in home games second half of the season this season.
DENVER is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
DENVER is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DENVER is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
DENVER is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 7-4 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 7-4 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


MILWAUKEE vs. MIAMI
Milwaukee is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games

BOSTON vs. NEW YORK
Boston is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Boston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New York is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Boston
New York is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Boston

GOLDEN STATE vs. DENVER
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games

Old Post 04-23-13 04:35 PM
doubled1511 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for doubled1511 Click here to Send doubled1511 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3374

NBA Playoffs: Tuesday's East Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat (-14, 197)

Heat lead series 1-0

LeBron James fell two assists short of his ninth career playoff triple-double in Game 1 on Sunday. The Miami Heat still won by 23 points. The Heat will be looking to make it a 2-0 cushion in the best-of-7 series when they host the eighth-seeded Milwaukee Bucks again on Tuesday. James went 9-for-11 from the floor and made or participated in a series of highlight drives and dunks in the second half that the Bucks could not answer.

Miami’s starters rarely played together over the last couple weeks of the regular season, but any rust wore off by the time the third quarter got underway in Game 1. The Heat looked like a well-oiled machine while the Bucks struggled to get anything from anyone other than Brandon Jennings or Monta Ellis. The two guards combined for 48 points but could not get their big men involved. Milwaukee is the only playoff team with a sub-.500 record but was confident enough going into the series for Jennings to predict a win in six games. For that to happen now, the Bucks will need to take four of the next five.

ABOUT THE BUCKS: Milwaukee’s biggest advantage was supposed to be on the glass, where they have Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova up front. Instead, the Bucks were outrebounded 46-31 by a Miami team that ranked last in the NBA in rebounding average during the regular season. Ilyasova was a non-factor, scoring two points on 1-of-7 shooting and attempting only one 3-pointer. Milwaukee could stand to slow things down a bit and move the ball instead of settling for jumpers off the dribble from Jennings and Ellis. The Bucks starting frontcourt of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Ilyasova and Sanders combined for 18 field goal attempts while Jennings and Ellis put up 39 in Game 1.

ABOUT THE HEAT: Miami has won 38 of its last 40 games and has shown no sign that it is ready to slow down. James’ efficient performance was the standard for the whole team, with no one attempting more than Ray Allen’s 13 field goals. Chris Bosh did what Ilyasova has done so well at times, stepping out and going 3-for-4 from beyond the arc, and Chris Andersen provided energy to go along with 10 points and seven rebounds in 16 minutes off the bench. “All I care about is the win,” James said after the game. “I didn’t even know my stats. I just knew that we were playing efficient offensively besides the turnovers.” Those turnovers were the one thing keeping Milwaukee in the game in the first half, but the Heat cleaned that up after the break.

TRENDS:

* Heat are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record
* Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.
* Bucks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Miami 3-point specialists Allen and Shane Battier combined to go 3-for-15 from beyond the arc in Game 1.

2. James has had three career playoff games with at least 25 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists - the most in NBA history.

3. Milwaukee did not help itself by going 12-for-20 from the free throw line in Game 1.


Boston Celtics at New York Knicks (-6.5, 185.5)

Knicks lead series 1-0.

The Knicks got 36 points from Carmelo Anthony in Saturday's 85-78 victory, but their defense made the difference. New York trailed by seven points late in the third quarter but limited Boston to only eight points in the fourth quarter. The Knicks forced eight turnovers in the final 12 minutes and 21 overall. "We've been playing like this since Rondo went down, so it's not an issue," Celtics center Kevin Garnett said in downplaying the point guard's absence. J.R. Smith, who on Monday was named the league's Sixth Man of the Year, has 15 points for the Knicks in the series opener.

ABOUT THE CELTICS: Boston appeared to have the Knicks right where they wanted them through three quarters, controlling the tempo and forcing Anthony into difficult shots. Garnett and Paul Pierce each missed multiple games down the stretch due to ankle injuries, so fatigue may have been a factor. The lack of bench production certainly was a concern the Celtics, who got a combined four points and zero field goals from their reserves. Jeff Green carried the offense for most of the game, scoring 26 points, but he was limited to two free throws in the fourth. Coach Doc Rivers expects more from Garnett in Game 2. "We've got to get Kevin more involved," he said.

ABOUT THE KNICKS: Although Smith typically provides the spark off the bench, New York received huge contributions from veteran reserves Jason Kidd and Kenyon Martin. Kidd, forced into a bigger role due to the ankle injury suffered by starting point guard Pablo Prigioni, had eight points, five rebounds, three assists and three steals. Martin also came up big, supplying 10 points and nine rebounds after sitting out the final five games of the regular season with an ankle injury. "When you got Jason Kidd on the floor who's been in as long as he's been in, and Kenyon, I mean it makes a world of difference," Knicks coach Mike Woodson said. "That was the whole reason for adding those guys to our team."

TRENDS:

* Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Under is 5-1 in Knicks’ last six home games.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Boston's eight fourth-quarter points tie a franchise record for its fewest in a quarter in a playoff game.

2. New York limited the Celtics to 25 second-half points, matching the franchise mark for fewest points allowed to an opponent in the postseason.

3. The Knicks are hopeful Prigioni will return Tuesday. They were 16-2 with him in the starting lineup.

Old Post 04-23-13 04:35 PM
doubled1511 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for doubled1511 Click here to Send doubled1511 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3374

Warriors at Nuggets: Game 2 Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets (-8, 207)

Nuggets lead series 1-0

The first three quarters of Game 1 were all about a pair of young teams getting their feet wet in the playoffs. The final period was when both the Denver Nuggets and the Golden State Warriors really came alive. The Nuggets will try to take a commanding 2-0 lead when they host the Warriors in Game 2 on Tuesday. Golden State battled back in the fourth quarter despite losing David Lee early in the period and will have to figure out a way to win without him going forward.

Lee, who was the team’s lone All-Star and led the league in double-doubles during the regular season, went down with a hip injury in Game 1 and is expected to miss the remainder of the playoffs. The veteran forward was playing his first career postseason game and had helped the Warriors gain an advantage on the glass with 14 rebounds in 29 minutes before exiting. With Lee out of the paint, Andre Miller took over in the final quarter for Denver. The veteran point guard scored 18 of his 28 points in the final frame and drove for a layup with 1.3 seconds left to give the Nuggets a 97-95 victory.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: An MRI taken after the game on Saturday revealed a torn right hip flexor for Lee, ruling him out for the rest of playoffs. That leaves a big hole in the frontcourt for Golden State, which had thrived with Lee working alongside Andrew Bogut. Those two helped the Warriors build up a 55-45 rebounding advantage in Game 1. With Lee out, Carl Landry will likely move into the starting power forward spot, tightening the defense a tad but shortening the bench and leaving the team without its best inside scorer and weak-side rebounder. Golden State could put even more of the offensive burden on the backcourt trio of Curry, Klay Thompson and Jarrett Jack. Curry went 1-for-10 in the first half on Saturday but finished with 19 points and nine assists and helped the Warriors score 31 points in the fourth quarter. His 3-pointer with 14 seconds left tied it at 95. Golden State was the top 3-point shooting team in the regular season but struggled to 8-for-22 from beyond the arc in Game 1 and will need to pick that pace up to survive without Lee.

ABOUT THE NUGGETS: Denver will be looking to take full advantage of Lee’s absence with the return of Kenneth Faried, who missed Game 1 with a sprained ankle. Faried averaged 11.5 points and 9.2 rebounds in the regular season and is one of many Nuggets able to finish strong on the break and battle in the paint. Denver leaned on Miller in the fourth quarter and the veteran rewarded that trust with strong play on both ends of the floor. Miller led a reserve corps that totaled 49 points, helping to make up for a less impressive effort from the starters. Point guard Ty Lawson was held to 12 points on 6-of-15 shooting and four assists. The Nuggets went 38-3 at home during the regular season and were counting on their team athleticism to wear the Warriors down in the fourth quarter. Getting Faried back should help Denver push the pace right from the start on Tuesday.

TRENDS

* Warriors are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a loss.

* Over is 4-1 in Nuggets' last five overall.

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Denver.

* Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The Warriors are 3-18 in 21 games without Lee over the last three seasons.

2. Golden State turned the ball over 18 times in Game 1, leading to 18 points for the Nuggets.

3. Faried has averaged 11.7 points and 10.9 rebounds in seven career games against the Warriors.

Old Post 04-23-13 04:36 PM
doubled1511 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for doubled1511 Click here to Send doubled1511 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3374

Tuesday Playoff Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The home teams dominated the series openers in the first round of the NBA playoffs this past weekend. Three teams look to take 2-0 advantages on Tuesday night, including the top two seeds in the East (Heat and Knicks). Meanwhile, the Nuggets attempt to extend their lengthy home win streak against a Warriors' squad down one of their stars. We'll begin in South Florida with the defending champs seeking another blowout.

Bucks at Heat (-14, 197)

There was no reason to believe Brandon Jennings' bold statement prior to this series that the 38-44 Bucks would knock off the Heat in six games. Miami proved in the series opener again that crazy predictions won't faze last season's title-holders, as the Heat blasted Milwaukee, 110-87 to cash easily as 13-point favorites. Past Jennings and Monta Ellis, the rest of the Bucks combined for just 39 points, while Miami chased Milwaukee in the second half with a 58-point outburst.

Erik Spoelstra's improved to 12-3 ATS the last 15 games with the victory in the series opener, including the fifth cover in the previous six opportunities at home. After the Bucks covered the first two meetings with the Heat, Miami's defense has stiffened up by not allowing more than 94 points to Milwaukee in each of the last three meetings.

The Bucks are listed as a double-digit underdog for just the second time this season tonight, while failing to cover five of their last seven times as a road 'dog. Playing away from Milwaukee has been a struggle for Jim Boylan's team recently, losing 10 of their past 11 road contests, with the lone victory coming in the season finale at Oklahoma City as Kevin Durant sat out. The 'under' is profiting on the highway recently for the Bucks, cashing in seven of the last 10 outings.

Celtics at Knicks (-6½, 185 ½)

New York hasn't won a playoff series since 2000, as the Knicks took a positive step forward by grabbing Saturday's Game 1 over the Celtics, 85-78. Boston put up 29 points in the opening quarter, but the C's limped to just 25 points in the second half, including an eight-point spot in the final 12 minutes. The Knicks didn't shoot well from the floor (40%), as New York leaned on the league's leading scorer to carry them to victory.

Carmelo Anthony lifted the Knicks with a game-high 36 points for just his second playoff victory in a New York uniform. The Celtics' bench was one of the main reasons for the horrific offensive performance thanks to a four-point output from Courtney Lee, Jason Terry, and Jordan Crawford on 0-7 shooting from the floor (Lee converted four free throws). The New York bench shined as Sixth Man of the Year J.R. Smith pumped in 15 points, while Kenyon Martin contributed 10 points.

The Knicks have taken four of five meetings from the Celtics this season, while Boston has now lost eight straight games in the role of a road underdog (3-5 ATS). New York is riding an 11-game winning streak at Madison Square Garden since losing to Oklahoma City on March 7, as Mike Woodson's team has covered nine times in this stretch.

Warriors at Nuggets (-8, 207)

Denver slipped by Golden State in the series opener, 97-95 as Andre Miller's layup in the final seconds gave the Nuggets their 24th straight home victory. The Warriors managed to cash as 7½-point underdogs, but lost David Lee to a hip injury that will sideline the power forward for the rest of the postseason. The Nuggets fell to 1-4 ATS the last five games, as Denver tries to take control of this series heading back to Oakland on Friday.

Past Miller's 28 points, the Nuggets needed to scratch and claw as many points as possible from Ty Lawson, Wilson Chandler, and Corey Brewer, who combined to score 33 points on 15-of-43 shooting from the floor. Denver's three-point shooting ranked 25th in the league and it showed in Game 1, as the Nuggets connected on just 3-of-16 attempts from downtown. The game finished 'under' the total of 211½, but that also tied into the fact that things tipped off at 3:30 local time in Denver.

The Warriors played three games without Lee in the regular season and covered in both opportunities as an underdog at New Orleans and New York. The Nuggets will get a huge boost in the paint as Kenneth Faried is expected to return to the lineup after missing a week with a sprained ankle. Golden State has covered five of its last six games, but own a 4-10 ATS record the last 14 opportunities in the road 'dog role.

2013 NBA Playoffs

Milwaukee lost 16 of last 22 games; can they even win a game in series? Bucks upset Heat 104-85 at home Dec 29, forcing 20 turnovers (+15), but lost other four meetings by 7-13-11-23 points, with under 3-0-1 in last four series games. Heat shot 55.9% from floor, also went 27-33 on foul line in easy Game 1 win. Bucks were -9 with Jennings on court, -14 in 15:00 he sat out; other than Jennings/Ellis, Milwaukee shot 37% for night, not good enough. Miami's bench was just 3-16 behind arc in Game 1, if they shoot better here, game could be even uglier.

Knicks won last four games with Celtics, by 3-15-19-7 points, making 35-74 behind arc in three games in this arena (16-56 in Boston). Celtics have 4th-best defensive 3-point %age, have more playoff experience on their side, but they're without Rondo, which killed them in second half of Game 1, when they were outscored 18-8 in 4th quarter and scored 25 points in whole second half. Four of five series games this year stayed under the total. You look at the first two Game 2's last night, and both visitors played much better than they did in Game 1. All Celtics really wanted was split in NYC, can still get that here.

Denver won four of five vs Golden State this season, with only loss a game they led 60-51 at half; they're 39-3 at home; they won by 11-11-2 in three home games vs Warriors this season. Golden State is in playoffs for only second time in last 19 years, now Lee is out for season with a torn hip flexor- he had 10 points, 14 boards in opener. Landry will be an able replacement for Lee, but Warriors' problem is who will be sub for Landry on second unit? Denver is 6-1 since Gallinari got hurt; they've got 58 wins because they're very deep. Nugget starters were 0-11 from arc in opener; 37-year old Miller bailed them out with 28 points.

Armadillosports.com

Old Post 04-23-13 04:37 PM
doubled1511 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for doubled1511 Click here to Send doubled1511 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Post A Reply
  
Pages (2): [1] 2 »   Last Message   Next Message

Quick Links: