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doubled1511
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Registered: Sep 2011
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ncaa picks

David Chan

Texas Tech vs. Kansas
Pick: Kansas

Situational Analysis

Texas Tech is 10-17 SU overall, and just 1-7 on the road. It's coming off a 72-63 win over TCU on the 2nd.

Kansas is 25-4 SU overall, and 16-1 at home. It's coming off a 91-65 win over West Virginia on the 2nd. Ben McLemore had 36 points.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Texas Tech is just 6-12 ATS as an underdog this year, and 2-6 ATS on the road.

Note that Kansas is 9-6 ATS at home, 4-2 ATS when playing with one or less days rest, and 9-7 ATS vs. conference opponents.

Pick Analysis

These teams played on January 13th, and Kansas would hammer Texas Tech 60-46. The Red Raiders continue to struggle in this matchup, and I expect an even bigger lopsided affair this time around. This is a big game for the home side, which can not afford to let up even a tiny bit as the regular season winds down, as take note that the Jayhawks are tied atop the Big 12 and in a real dog fight with Kansas State. Texas Tech has lost 28 in a row to Top 25 teams, and that streak of futility gets extended tonight; consider a second look at Kansas in this one!

Old Post 03-04-13 05:19 PM
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doubled1511
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Jimmy Boyd

Texas Tech +24½

Conference play is hard on teams, even top tier teams like Kansas. You should always play against favorites of 20 points or more like Kansas when they are off a win against a conference rival. This system is 95-59 (61.7%) over the last five seasons.

This matchup also falls into a system to play on underdogs of 10 or more points like Texas Tech when they are revenging a home loss. This scenario happens a lot in college basketball and over the last five seasons we have seen an 809-615 (56.8%) success rate. Those numbers tighten up to 192-130 (59.6%) when the teams are playing with one or less days of rest.

Playing on only one day of rest, the Jayhawks are in a situation where they may take their foot off the gas against Texas Tech. The season is winding down and Kansas is ready for a few days of rest before they begin to prepare for the Big 12 conference tournament.

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Rob Vinciletti

Baylor -1½

Baylor has won 17 of 19 vs losing teams and has a solid 63 RPI Ranking while playing the 29th toughest schedule in the country. They won by 5 here last season beat Texas at home earlier in the season despite shooting just 35%. Baylor is 5-1 this season after shooting less than 40% from the field and Texas is 5-14 vs winning teams and has lost 14 of 17 vs top 100 RPI Teams this year. Texas has not played too well on defense of late allowing opponents to shoot over 50% in back to back games for the first time this season. Look for Baylor to emerge with a win and cover

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Ray Monohan

Baylor -1½

I am not sure you can trust Baylor the way they keep letting you down but they are the more talented team and the more desperate team too. They probably can’t afford to lose another game this season and definitely need this one to get right before a home battle against Kansas that will probably decide their season. They are 6-4 ATS on the road this season and beat Texas already once this season - in overtime at home. The Bears are 4-0 ATS against the Longhorns of late and 17-5 ATS against teams with a losing record. If they play well there is no way the Longhorns can stay with them.

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Dave Cokin

Baylor at Texas
Pick: Texas

Baylor and Texas collide tonight in Austin, and this sure looks like two teams traveling in somewhat opposite directions right now. The Longhorns have been tabbed as a disappointment this season by some, but I think that's a bit ridiculous. They're an incredibly young team and they had to endure playing most of the season without their most talented player. Texas has improved lately and I like the guts the team has shown in a few recent contests. On the other hand, there's little I can say that would qualify as positive about Baylor. The Bears have a very talented roster, but they're just a flat out dumb team at times. They have also played themselves out of the NCAA Tournament by losing four of their last five. The Bears are still capable of climbing back into the conversation with a win here and against Kansas, plus a run in the Big 12 tourney. But based on the most recent performances, that's pretty difficult to envision right now. On paper, Baylor ought to win this game. But this is not a team I'm going to endorse currently, and I can see the Longhorns squeezing out a satisfying home win. Texas plus the points gets the nod.

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Paul Leiner

100* Cincinnati +10

50* Baylor -2

Old Post 03-04-13 05:27 PM
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