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Bear
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 737

PGA Tour/Euro Tour/Champions Plays

Quite a slate this week. Last week I was able to cash the field at 8-1. I also picked up some Russell Henley after round 1 at 22-1 but I did not post that one. All in all a good week.

Here are my picks for this week:

PGA Tour:
Luke Guthrie: 90-1 Henley winning last week only inspired the young guns.

Patrick Cantlay: 60-1 See above

European Tour, Abu Dhabi:
Justin Rose: 16-1 One of the best. I like the value here even with whats his name and his new Nike sidekick in the field

Champions Tour:
Michael Allen: 18-1 This is a young gun on the old guys tour who had 12 top tens in 22 events in 2012 including 2 wins. He should be in the mix on the final day.

Good luck

Old Post 01-16-13 06:01 PM
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mikeb104
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 7510

Go get em. Might have to tail.


Thanks




"Not everything you read on the internet is accurate"- Abraham Lincoln

Old Post 01-16-13 07:30 PM
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GEORGE456


Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 205

Wow Bear.. your site is way better then mine with golf. I had the field at 4-1 but R. Henley wasn't even part of it. I think he went off at 60-1 pre t-ment. Good Luck this week.
I took a shot with Elkington this week at 22-1. First event and I know he's pumped for it.

Old Post 01-16-13 08:34 PM
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Bear
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Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 737

come on aboard mike.

george, the field odds in my opinion were excellent. they only offered odds on 33 players which left 111 possibilities to hit the field bet at 8-1. Sometimes odds are posted for overall winners after 1st and 2nd round, but not always. For what its worth, I use heritage. I even called them last year to get odds on a particular player that didn't have odds and they obliged and put odds up an hour later.

Old Post 01-16-13 10:10 PM
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BIV2


Registered: Mar 2007
Posts: 476

Hi All

Playin.. Zach Johnson +2250 Humana

Dhabi
Ernie Els +2700 & Justin Rose +1200.

Good luck

Old Post 01-16-13 11:35 PM
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BIV2


Registered: Mar 2007
Posts: 476

adding Francesco Molinari +2250

Old Post 01-16-13 11:41 PM
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threegs


Registered: Sep 2009
Posts: 257

Tournament Matchups:
Abu Dhabi:
G. Coetzee -115 over B. Grace

Humana:
S. Gardiner -105 over S. Langley
J. Walker -115 over B. Gay
B. Snedeker -115 over T. Clark

To Win:
Abu Dhabi:
J. Rose 15-1
G. Coetzee 40-1
A. Hansen 50-1

Humana:
M. Kuchar 15-1
Z. Johnson 30-1
J. Senden 40-1

Good Luck!

Results to Date
Tournament Matchups: 8-4 +2.87 units
Round Matchups: 1-3 -2.20 units

Old Post 01-17-13 01:32 AM
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threegs


Registered: Sep 2009
Posts: 257

Humana First Round Matchups:

P. Mickelson -120 over T. Clark
G. Ogilvy -125 over G. Woodland
B. Haas -120 over H. English

Good Luck!

Old Post 01-17-13 01:33 AM
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Bear
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 737

3G'S

? FOR YOU

WHY THE COETZE LOVE? I DON'T KNOW MUCH ABOUT HIM, BUT I DO KNOW B GRACE IS A WORLDLY PLAYER. NOT DOUBTING, JUST ASKING.

Old Post 01-17-13 01:35 AM
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threegs


Registered: Sep 2009
Posts: 257

Bear,

Coetzee has 5 top tens in his last 9 tourneys dating back to October. He also was 6th in this tourney last year, but more importantly for these tournaments outside of Europe, I look for someone who has done well in the region.

Here is Coetzee in the UAE: 22nd, 6th, 5th, 25th all since December 2011. Inconsistent? Sure, but this is someone that has played here multiple times.

Grace missed the cut here last year which will knock him down somewhat for me as well. Although he does have a 6th place finish in the UAE in November.

Of course, Coetzee will probably crap the bed now, but that is my reasoning.

Good Luck

Old Post 01-17-13 02:00 AM
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Bear
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Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 737

thanks bud. i know about most guys in the US but not all the euro's.

sound rasoning.

i will tail here.

Old Post 01-17-13 02:42 AM
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 45838

Bear

thanks for the share, i use this info
GL

Old Post 01-17-13 09:24 AM
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Bear
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Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 737

Thanks for the nudge 3G's on Coetze. I woke up to a winner. Nice to see Rose in 1st place after round 1 as well.

I have some one more add for the overall on the pga and 3 1st round matchups.

PGA Overall: Tim Clark: 15-1

PGA 1st Round:
Harris English -110 over Bill Haas
Chris Kirk +100 over Carl Petterson
Robert Garrigus -110 over Bo Van Pelt

Recap of All plays:

PGA TOUR 1st round matchups:
Harris English -110 over Bill Haas
Chris Kirk +100 over Carl Petterson
Robert Garrigus -110 over Bo Van Pelt

PGA Overall Winner:
Tim Clark: 15-1
Luke Guthrie: 90-1
Patrick Cantlay: 60-1


European Tour, Abu Dhabi:
Justin Rose: 16-1

Champions Tour:
Michael Allen: 18-1

Old Post 01-17-13 01:44 PM
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Bear
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Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 737

Just something to note on the matchups for the PGA Humana tournament this week that can provide an edge in daily matchups on day 2 and 3. Most often the daily matchups have players in the same group or at least going off near the same time therefore they play in simlar conditions - which seems fair.

However this week is a big pro am event and they are spread over three courses, La Quinta (LQ), Palmer Private (PP) and Nicklaus Private (NP). At my book (heritage) they did not take into account that these guys were playing different course and therefore provided some matchups where player A was player the PP and player B playing the NP. I didn't check this before my plays today and I certainly will before tomorrow to see if I can find an edge. It appears the scoring is far better on the NP course than the PP course. You might take note if you are making any plays for tomorrow. This info should provide us with a small edge. If I have time, I will try to check back later with more definitive stats, but now you have the knowledge to check it out for yourself.

Old Post 01-17-13 09:38 PM
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Bear
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Posts: 737

To continue.from.my earlier post about the difficulty of the corses:
11 of the top 16 scores came on the NP course today, while only 3 of the top 16 came from.the PP course.
11 of the worst 22 scores came on the PP couse versus only 3 of the bottom 22 coming on the NP couse.
To avoid confusion the other.scores came from Laquinta which did not offer any players matchups - on heritage at least.

Therefore, I am going to tailor my round 2 and round 3 matchups to players on NP tomorrow and.Sat versus players on PP. I will make an effort to post my round 2 matchups before they go off the board starting at 10 am EST.

Old Post 01-18-13 01:45 AM
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bostonshamrock
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Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 1928

good stuff here bear- thanks, just looking at some 2nd rd matchups now- do you know who is playing what course tomorrow? i cant seem to find it anywhere

Old Post 01-18-13 04:28 AM
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Bear
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Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 737

http://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/humana-challenge-in-partnership-with-the-clinton-foundation/tee-times.html

LONG LINK I KNOW. those are the t times with courses.
BOL

Old Post 01-18-13 05:21 AM
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bostonshamrock
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Posts: 1928

thanks

Old Post 01-18-13 12:48 PM
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Bear
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Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 737

round 2 matchups:

these are based on the info i provided last night.

charlie wi +120 over jimmy walker
sean o'hair +110 over greg chamlmers

Old Post 01-18-13 03:16 PM
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Bear
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note* both o'hair and wi are on the NP course today. their opponents are on the PP - the more difficult course.

Old Post 01-18-13 03:17 PM
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