say i have numbers that give winners at this rate in cbb, not ats, that would be a no brainer and a miracle, but SU game winners.
line %win SU
over -800 97%
how can these be used to profit?
i am thinking teasers/parlays somehow but not sure. I want to know mathematically. Anyone have a clue. What is the best strategy. These are over 1000's of games so the confidence level is very high.
My early thought is special teasers that would get these lines pretty much even.
So 4 teams at 13 pts at let us say 92% win rate. Is this profitable?
Or 3 teams at 10 pts at say 88% win rate. Is this profitable? I think is becomes -130 on that.
Or 3 team parlay of over -800 teams winning 97% each team. Would pay 30% profit if wins.
-800 to -850 89%
-850 to -950 90%
-950 to -1000 91%
those are the percents that have to hit to break even. so with the percents above it is possible to make a small profit betting the ml's su. I hate to do that though. I wont. I am guessing with the parlay the profits would increase but not sure how much.
Two-team parlays: First figure out the winning percentage of the two-teamer – 55% (win percentage on each game of the parlay) x 55% = 30.25%. So our formula is now 30.25% x 13/5 (return on a win) then subtract 69.75% (chance of losing the parlay) x 1 (loss on a losing parlay) to get a profit expectation of 8.9%.
Three-team parlays: Odds of winning the three-teamer: 55% x 55% x 55% = 16.6375%. The formula is thus 16.6375% x 6 (return on winning parlay) subtract 83.3625% x 1 to get a profit expectation of 16.463%.
so, how the hell do i use this now for ml parlays? I think this is the formula?