StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

The FoxDen Forum : Powered by vBulletin version 2.3.0 The FoxDen Forum > Sports Handicapping, Trends, and Stats > Need some math help
Search The Fox Den Forum:

Subscribe to this Thread


Last Message   Next Message
    
Author
Message    Post A Reply
bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 6969

Need some math help

say i have numbers that give winners at this rate in cbb, not ats, that would be a no brainer and a miracle, but SU game winners.

line %win SU
7-9.5 87%
10-13.5 88%
14+ 97%

also
moneyline %win
over -800 97%

how can these be used to profit?
i am thinking teasers/parlays somehow but not sure. I want to know mathematically. Anyone have a clue. What is the best strategy. These are over 1000's of games so the confidence level is very high.

My early thought is special teasers that would get these lines pretty much even.

So 4 teams at 13 pts at let us say 92% win rate. Is this profitable?

Or 3 teams at 10 pts at say 88% win rate. Is this profitable? I think is becomes -130 on that.

Or 3 team parlay of over -800 teams winning 97% each team. Would pay 30% profit if wins.

Maybe these are really tough math problems.

Anyone know?

Old Post 01-14-13 05:39 PM
bbaffert is online now Click Here to See the Profile for bbaffert Click here to Send bbaffert a Private Message Edit post   Report post
bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 6969

on the ml i found this

-800 to -850 89%
-850 to -950 90%
-950 to -1000 91%

those are the percents that have to hit to break even. so with the percents above it is possible to make a small profit betting the ml's su. I hate to do that though. I wont. I am guessing with the parlay the profits would increase but not sure how much.

Old Post 01-14-13 05:45 PM
bbaffert is online now Click Here to See the Profile for bbaffert Click here to Send bbaffert a Private Message Edit post   Report post
bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 6969

with a 90% chance of hitting one team the chance of hitting a 3 team ml parlay is 72.9.

hmm, how did they get the 72.9?

Old Post 01-14-13 05:53 PM
bbaffert is online now Click Here to See the Profile for bbaffert Click here to Send bbaffert a Private Message Edit post   Report post
bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 6969

Required win percentage = Amount risked / (Amount risked + Amount of win)

the formula for finding what percent you have to win to make ml profit.

how do you work this into a formula for multiple teams?

Old Post 01-14-13 05:57 PM
bbaffert is online now Click Here to See the Profile for bbaffert Click here to Send bbaffert a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Tex
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 3932

.90x.90x.90= .7290




give a man a fish, you feed him for a day, teach a man to fish, he'll sit in a boat and drink beer all day"

Old Post 01-14-13 06:03 PM
Tex is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Tex Click here to Send Tex a Private Message Edit post   Report post
bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 6969

55% winning capper forumula

Two-team parlays: First figure out the winning percentage of the two-teamer 55% (win percentage on each game of the parlay) x 55% = 30.25%. So our formula is now 30.25% x 13/5 (return on a win) then subtract 69.75% (chance of losing the parlay) x 1 (loss on a losing parlay) to get a profit expectation of 8.9%.

Three-team parlays: Odds of winning the three-teamer: 55% x 55% x 55% = 16.6375%. The formula is thus 16.6375% x 6 (return on winning parlay) subtract 83.3625% x 1 to get a profit expectation of 16.463%.

so, how the hell do i use this now for ml parlays? I think this is the formula?

Old Post 01-14-13 06:06 PM
bbaffert is online now Click Here to See the Profile for bbaffert Click here to Send bbaffert a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Tex
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 3932

How about just posting some test and see the results.

Also you have to consider what a three team parlay with that high of moneyline pays..

Trust me, the big boys have done the math and its in their favor..

Would be interesting to follow up though




give a man a fish, you feed him for a day, teach a man to fish, he'll sit in a boat and drink beer all day"

Old Post 01-14-13 06:06 PM
Tex is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Tex Click here to Send Tex a Private Message Edit post   Report post
bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 6969

Thanks Tex, kinda tricky with all the moving parts.

I would think that with a winning percentage that would be profitable betting the ml's su it could be just turned over into ml parlays and become more profitable.

Same thing with special teasers of 3 or 4 getting them down to even or very close.

It would be nice to have the math though, telling me which is the more profitable way to go at this. I may work on it more later. Brain kinda just froze up for now.

Old Post 01-14-13 06:21 PM
bbaffert is online now Click Here to See the Profile for bbaffert Click here to Send bbaffert a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Tex
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 3932

My point is the payout for 3 teams at ml of -800 is only 42 on 100. So, for everyone you lose you have to hit 2.5.

they know all this, so there are no easy winners.




give a man a fish, you feed him for a day, teach a man to fish, he'll sit in a boat and drink beer all day"

Old Post 01-14-13 10:23 PM
Tex is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Tex Click here to Send Tex a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Post A Reply
  
  Last Message   Next Message

Quick Links: