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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

White Boy Wasted - Texans/NE - Bet THE SHED!!

Yep, time to take my meds. I have learned there is a 3 pill combo that can get me thru just about anything. I need it now but going to try to make it another hour.

I know what is going to happen, we all do. NE is going to smoke my beloved Texans. I have looked high and low for a reason but there is not one. Heck, if anything, with Gronk back this is just horrific for Houston from all standpoints. Texans will lose by over 2 TDS. I hate to say it but it is true. They match up horribly with NE, just like last time when I picked NE -3.5 as a shed wager. Nothing has changed. Texans do not have the players to deal with this team.

I cannot let my heart override this great play. It is going to be a bloodbath.

NE -14 BET THE SHED (I know it is not 14 but that would be a more fair number, maybe -17 or -20, suxs to be a Texans fan today.

GL!

Old Post 01-13-13 07:27 PM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

some ****

J.J. Watt and Antonio Smith vs. Patriots Run-Blocking

We just keep pouring the accolades on for J.J. Watt this season, and for good reason. He became the first player ever to top the 100-point PFF grade mark and ran away with our Defensive Player of the Year award in a season stacked with top-notch defenders. He didnít slow down once he reached the playoffs, terrorizing the Bengals offense with six quarterback pressures, two batted passes, and four run stops last week.

There were times against the Patriots in Week 14 when he was fighting a one-man war, hitting Tom Brady four times while the rest of his defense was repeatedly burned. A microcosm of Wattís hard-luck day came early in the fourth quarter, when he caught Danny Woodhead from behind and caused a fumble, only to have Brandon Lloyd fall on the loose ball in the end zone for a Patriots touchdown. Against the run, Watt battled back-and-forth with the New England linemen all day, yet was held to just one run stop in his only game all season without a positive run grade.

Whatever gains Watt had against New England were offset on the other side by the Texansí worst-graded defender of the game, Antonio Smith. Smith has the sixth-highest PFF grade of all 3-4 defensive ends this season, but his game isnít exactly balanced. His 47 quarterback pressures is second only to Watt at his position, but only a handful of Smithís peers have a worse Run Stop Percentage than his mark of 5.4.

His flaws in run defense were on full-display against the Patriots, particularly with 2:18 left in the third quarter, when Logan Mankins absorbed Smithís rush and shoved him to the ground, leaving a big hole for Stevan Ridley to easily pick up the first down. On 3rd-and-4 with 7:28 left in the fourth, Smith was aggressively rushing the passer when Ridley ran right by him for a 14-yard score.

Every starter on the Patriotsí offensive line earned a positive run blocking grade this season, and Ryan Wendellís +24.2 mark led all centers. Mankins has also come on strong with a +9.5 run block grade in his past four games. Smith showed in Week 16 that he is capable of playing the run with four stops against Adrian Petersonís Vikings. He needs to bring that effort this week to see that Wattís next great performance isnít for naught.

Rob Gronkowski vs. Glover Quin and Danieal Manning

Amazingly enough, the Patriots were able to thrash the Texans defense without Rob Gronkowski, our highest-graded tight end this season. The big storyline before the game was that New England practiced with racquetball paddles to prepare for the Texansí ability to bat down passes, but New England may have just decided that it was easier to go over Wattís arms than between them. Brady threw 42.4% of his passes over 10 yards past the line of scrimmage ó a higher rate than his 33.3% for the season. He gained 177 of his 296 yards on such throws, often victimizing Houston safeties Glover Quin and Danieal Manning.

With 2:55 left in the first quarter, Quin bit hard of a play-action fake and left Lloyd wide open on a post-route for a 37-yard touchdown. Manning later incurred a costly third-down pass interference penalty on a deep route to Wes Welker in the second quarter. And with 11:04 left in the same quarter, Manning was slow to get over to cover a split-wide Aaron Hernandez. Brady snapped the ball quickly and hit his tight end for the embarrassingly easy score.

After surrendering 123 yards and a touchdown in Week 17, Quin rebounded to become one of Wild Card weekendís Secret Superstars. He allowed just 13 yards on six targets while covering Jermaine Gresham and Andrew Hawkins. Manning, however, has no such positive to point to. With 2:57 left in the game, he inexplicably let A.J. Green behind him and would have allowed a go-ahead touchdown if not for Andy Daltonís overthrown pass.

Gronkowski will challenge these safeties to cover every inch of the field. He leads all tight ends by far with 2.43 Yards Per Route Run. Heís third with 1.91 YPRR when lined up as a slot receiver. And heís dangerous on deeper routes, with 463 of his 790 receiving yards coming on passes over 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Hernanez hasnít been able to replicate last yearís breakout season, but this will be only the sixth time he and Gronkowski have started together. If this tight end tandem plays at the level they did last year, Houstonís defense could again find itself helpless to stop New Englandís offense.

Arian Foster vs. Patriots Front Seven

Arian Foster hasnít had the elite season that weíre accustomed to seeing from him. His 17.9 Elusive Rating is one of the lower marks among starting running backs, and heís last with 0.60 Yards Per Route Run a year after leading his peers with 2.35 in that category. However, as he reminded us against the Bengals last week, he is still the engine that powers the Texansí offense. Eighty of his 140 rushing yards against Cincinnati came after contact, and he caught all eight of his targets to keep the Houston offense moving. His 15-yard run with 6:35 left in the second quarter, with multiple cuts in traffic, was vintage Foster.

Much of New Englandís success against Houston in Week 14 stemmed from holding Foster to 46 rushing yards on 15 carries. The Texan back didnít have any negative plays, save for a dropped pass, but he just didnít have many holes to run through. We can attribute that to the Patriotsí front seven, all of whom have earned a positive run grade this season.

Midway through November we were asking ourselves Whatís wrong with Vince Wilfork?, but the anchor in the middle of New Englandís line has since upped his game. He ranks fourth among all defensive tackles this season with an 8.7 Run Stop Percentage. On the second level, Brandon Spikes leads all inside linebackers with a +14.0 run defense grade, and Jerod Mayo has the second-highest Run Stop rate of all 4-3 outside linebackers with a 10.6 mark. If Houston is looking for a weakness in the Patriotsí run defense, targeting its rookies on the outside could be a start. Chandler Jones and Dontía Hightower both rank in their lower half of their positions with 5.0 and 6.8 Run Stop Percentages, respectively.

Despite the Patriotsí strength up the middle, the Texans still puzzlingly directed 22 of their 27 runs inside the tackles. Perhaps that was because Houston was missing itís best blocking tight end, Garrett Graham. Fullback James Casey instead lined up in Grahamís spot, earning just a -0.6 run block grade. With Graham in the lineup, Foster carried for a 4.7-yard average on runs outside the tackles against the Bengals versus 4.3 inside. Graham suffered a concussion near the end of that victory, and having him back healthy will perhaps encourage Houston to run more to the edges. Against a high-powered offense like the Patriots, the Texans need a successful ground game this time around if they hope to pull off the upset.


The only way Texans stay close is if Foster rushes for 200 yards, not going to happen. I love em to death but they can only run left and everyone knows that.

Old Post 01-13-13 07:41 PM
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bbaffert
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Posts: 7067

this sums it up very well

Bill Belichick has a famous knack for eliminating his opponent's most potent skill-position player, and his defense executed when New England held Foster to 46 yards on 15 runs (3.07 YPC) in Week 14. The Pats played top-nine regular-season run defense, permitting under 4.0 yards per carry, so clogging lanes and setting the edge comes natural to Belichick's group. Even better for the Patriots' chances of limiting Foster's impact would be grabbing an early lead and putting the game in overwhelmed Schaub's hands. ... Run-based and theoretically defensive-minded, the Texans are a rhythm team whose effectiveness is compromised when its rhythm is thwarted. The Pats can pound its enemy into submission with a power-zone run game, spread out defenses and attack college-style, or run the speed-no-huddle, limiting substitutions and tiring out an opponent. There isn't an offense in the league better equipped to throw an adversary off its game and take away its rhythm. From that perspective, this game is a mismatch heavily favoring the Patriots.

The Pats dismantled the Texans in the Week 14 game, and they did it without Rob Gronkowski. Not only is Gronkowski an unstoppable red-zone receiver, his run blocking reached new heights when healthy in 2012. To say Gronk's presence is worth seven points per game would probably be conservative. He's going to be an every-down player in the Divisional Round, and that's great news for Tom Brady and Stevan Ridley. It should worry the heck out of Houston. ... As alluded to in last week's Wild Card Matchups piece, the Texans' most glaring defensive weakness is inside linebacker play. The Bengals made a fruitless attempt to attack coverage-liability ILBs Barrett Ruud and Bradie James by targeting Jermaine Gresham on seven pass plays. Gresham, vastly inferior to Gronk and Aaron Hernandez, generated a pathetic seven yards on those seven targets, dropping three balls. The Pats likely took note of the Bengals' mishaps in their game-plan preparation, and where they occurred on the field. Hernandez, Gronkowski, and slot receiver Wes Welker can make good on the opportunities Gresham and Andy Dalton missed. ... Brady shredded Houston for four touchdowns, no picks, and 296 yards on 35 throws (8.46 YPA) in the aforementioned Week 14 beatdown. Texans slot cornerback Brandon Harris was Brady's primary whipping boy.


THAT HARRIS KID! They are going to swallow him up and spit him out. I hate it but it is what it is. Gronk/Hernandez are going to eat the Texans LB/S up, whatever they want they get. They only have to stop JJ WATT on D and even though he is amazing there is no other real source of danger. No Cushing. OUCH!

Old Post 01-13-13 07:44 PM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

Yep, it hurts but not so bad since I pretty much knew it was coming and hopefully some cashed.

---------------------

5-1 wk1
4-1 wk2
NFL Playoff Record
Shed Bets 3-0
Medium-Strong Bets 4-0
Small bets 0-2
2nd Half bets 2-0

Old Post 01-14-13 01:05 AM
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ANI-MAL
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Registered: Sep 2007
Posts: 779

nice work.




"When you lose, don't lose the lesson"
"Who feels it, knows it"

Hamma Plays:

Old Post 01-14-13 01:58 AM
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mikeb104
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Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 7535

Nice job. I think you and I were just about the only ones on the Pats. I should have posted it.



Good call




"Not everything you read on the internet is accurate"- Abraham Lincoln

Old Post 01-14-13 02:32 AM
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