StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

The FoxDen Forum : Powered by vBulletin version 2.3.0 The FoxDen Forum > Sports Handicapping, Trends, and Stats > Sony Open/volvo Golf This Week
Search The Fox Den Forum:

Subscribe to this Thread


Last Message   Next Message
    
Author
Message    Post A Reply
bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

Sony Open/volvo Golf This Week

Figured I would start the thread. Last week the cappers here were right on. I will say I made a few bucks giving out DJ as winner. I stole it from cbssports expert analysis. They were right on the money, I will post what they say this week when they update. espn had some decent info that I posted so here it is for the Sony.

Horse for the Course

Michael Collins, ESPN.com senior golf analyst: Brian Gay
Dude hasn't missed a cut here since 2000! He's got three top-10s, and his worst finish was a tie for 54th. I'd say that's a pretty solid horse for this course. This is not a bomber's course which plays perfectly for a guy whose average off the tee is only 278 yards.

Farrell Evans, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Davis Love III
At 48, DL3 is ancient by regular tour standards, but he can still play, especially at tour stalwarts like Waialae, where he shot a 60 in the first round of the 1994 Sony Open. He would finish second that year and since then he's had four top-5s in the season's first full-field event.

Bob Harig, ESPN.com senior golf writer: Jerry Kelly
A regular at Waialae, Kelly hasn't missed the tournament in years and has six top-10s, including a victory, in his past 13 appearances.

Kevin Maguire, ESPN.com senior golf editor: Zach Johnson
Waialae Country Club doesn't favor the bombers, which is perfect for the short-hitting Johnson, winner of the 2009 Sony Open in Hawaii.

Birdie Buster

Michael Collins: Michael Thompson
After missing the cut in his first try in 2011, the lessons he learned were put to really good use and resulted in a tie for sixth last year. Expect another solid week from this Alabama alum still on a high from another national championship.

Farrell Evans: Tommy Gainey
Golf's blue-collar man had a tie for sixth at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. His game is sharp, and he's ready to play as many as it takes to earn his first trip to the Masters.

Bob Harig: Dustin Johnson
He doesn't have much time to regroup after his win at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, but he comes in on a roll and seemingly geared up for a big season after his seventh PGA Tour victory.

Kevin Maguire:Patrick Reed
The Monday qualifier extraordinaire doesn't have to go that route this week now that he's got his tour card for 2013. Coming off his Q-school performance, expect a fast start to the season for Reed.

Super Sleeper

Michael Collins: Ben Kohles
Two starts, two wins last year on the Web.com Tour, so what else would we expect other than a top-5 finish on his first start as a member of the PGA Tour? He's not the longest hitter out there, but on this par-70 course, you don't have to be.

Farrell Evans: Luke Guthrie
In 2012, the 22-year-old former Illinois star won twice on the Web.com Tour in just 10 starts. Those back-to-back victories came after four top-10s in his first five starts after turning pro in the summer. He had a tie for fifth at the John Deere Classic and now he's a rookie on the biggest stage in golf. So don't be surprised to see him contend this week at the Sony.

Bob Harig: Russ Cochran
The Champions Tour player Monday qualified for the event, which is a victory in itself. He's using the opportunity to gear up for next week's Champions Tour opener on the Big Island.

Kevin Maguire: Tim Clark
After battling injuries and what will surely be talk about the anchor ban, Clark's had success at the Sony Open in the past, finishing T-2 as recently as 2011.

Winner

Michael Collins: Steve Marino
Coming off a year of injury where he only made six starts and missed four of those cuts, Marino is ready to do something only one other player has done (Jerry Kelly in '02) since this became the Sony Open in 1999 ... make this event his first PGA Tour victory.

Farrell Evans: Dustin Johnson
If DJ can win Sony, he will have played 126 holes in seven days. His caddie, Bobby Brown, might not love slogging that heavy staff bag around Waialae, but his boss will have a nice, easy stride while shooting four sub-70 rounds to get his eighth career win.

Bob Harig: Charles Howell III
Making his 13th straight appearance in the tournament, Howell is determined to get off to a fast start and qualify for the Masters. He tied for second last year and has six top-5s in the tournament.

Kevin Maguire: Tommy Gainey
Despite never playing well at the Sony Open, the man who led the PGA Tour in 2012 in total driving (combining ranks for both distance and accuracy) is coming off a strong showing at Kapalua and will ride that wave all the way to his second PGA Tour victory.

Old Post 01-09-13 05:18 PM
bbaffert is offline Click Here to See the Profile for bbaffert Click here to Send bbaffert a Private Message Edit post   Report post
bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

golf channels picks

Group 1: Keegan Bradley: On top of his stellar play in windswept Kapalua, he had a good start last season in the Aloha Swing starting with a middle-of-the-pack 16th-place finish at the TOC and a T-13 showing at Waialae. He also was sixth last year in par-5 performance, a key to the game this week.

Group 2: Charles Howell III: A horse for the course. He has a killer history at the Sony Open, with SIX top FIVES since he began competing in this event in 2002. Last year, he tied for runner-up honors (as he also did in 2007). I also look to his strong end to last season, where he closed with three consecutive top-15 finishes.

Group 3: Brian Gay: He opened his 2012 season at Waialae with a T-6 finish, one of four consecutive top 25s here. He also wrapped up the year on a high note in November with a fourth-place finish at Disney.

Group 4: Stephen Ames: He was off to a great start last year here, opening with rounds of 67-68-67, but a Sunday 75 pushed him down to a T-46 finish. Over the years he has picked up a nice paycheck at the beginning of the season, with five top-20 finishes and three top 10s since 2001.

Jason Sobel

Group 1: Zach Johnson: After a week on brutally long Kapalua, he'll be back in his comfort zone on a tighter, shorter Waialae track.

Group 2: Charles Howell III: He's been due at this one ever since getting gutted by Paul Goydos. Bonus: He often plays well in the early part of the season.

Group 3: Rory Sabbatini: Don't ask me why, but I can see a handful of title contentions for Sabo this year.

Group 4: Justin Leonard: This is the year he finally gets back in the winner's circle - and this ball-striker's course is a good place for it, especially if the wind blows.

Rex Hoggard

Group 1: Webb Simpson: If not for last week's two false starts at Kapalua, which featured play being voided on consecutive days, Simpson could have conceivably started the week at the Sony Open looking to become the year's first back-to-back champion.

Group 2: John Huh: 2012 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year got off to a decent start at Kapalua, and despite an equipment change to begin his sophomore campaign he is poised to pick up where he left off.

Group 3: Russell Henley: Tough to pick a guy making his third career Tour start, but he was a two-time winner on the Web.com Tour last year and has the game (he was 24th in GIR last year) to compete at Waialae.

Group 4: Brad Fritsch: The only Web.com Tour graduate to improve his position with a tie for seventh at Q-School needs a fast start, like the rest of the Q-School/Web.com Tour category, to make the most of the abbreviated season.

Ryan Lavner

Group 1: Carl Pettersson: Strangely streaky player at Waialae, and I'm hoping this year he breaks the trend. Since 2004, he has alternated a top-25 finish with a missed cut. Last year, he was T-2. Hope for more of the same this week, following up a solo eighth at Kapalua.

Group 2: Tim Clark: In 12 career rounds at the Sony, Clark has shot in the 60s in all but three rounds. He was T-2 here two years ago, and Clark's control game will always play well at a claustrophobic layout like Waialae.

Group 3: Brian Gay: Hasn't missed a cut at Waialae since 2000, has shot in the 70s only twice in his past 16 rounds there, and has been in the top 25 each of the past four years, including a T-6 there last year. Easy money.

Group 4: Patrick Reed: Ended his 2012 campaign with three top 25s in his last four starts, and then navigated through the final stage of Q-School to earn his card for this season. One of the game's most intriguing up-and-comers.

Old Post 01-09-13 05:57 PM
bbaffert is offline Click Here to See the Profile for bbaffert Click here to Send bbaffert a Private Message Edit post   Report post
threegs


Registered: Sep 2009
Posts: 257

Thanks for starting this, Mike. Quick turnaround from the ToC this week and it took a while for the books to get the lines out.

Volvo Golf Champions Tourney Matchups:
L. Oosthuizen -145 over E. Els
P. Lawrie -105 over P. Casey

To win:
F. Molinari 15-1
N. Colsaerts 20-1
T. Bjorn 30-1

Sony Open Tourney Matchups:
M. Leishman -115 over S. Stallings
J. Senden -115 over R. Palmer
Z. Johnson -115 over C. Howell III
J. Blixt +115 over T. Clark

To Win:
M. Kuchar 15-1
J. Senden 40-1
L. Guthrie 40-1

Good Luck!

Matchup Results to Date
All Tours: 4-2 +1.49 units

Old Post 01-09-13 10:47 PM
threegs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for threegs Click here to Send threegs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
threegs


Registered: Sep 2009
Posts: 257

Sony Open First Round Matchups:

J. Senden -105 over C. Howell III
B. Cauley (-0.5) -125 over S.M. Bae
R. Moore (-0.5) -110 over C. Kirk
W. Simpson (-0.5) -125 over K.J. Choi

Good Luck!

Old Post 01-09-13 10:48 PM
threegs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for threegs Click here to Send threegs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

This guy had the winner last week and stricker for top 5

Pick to Win

Matt Kuchar

Odds: 16 to 1

World Ranking: 21st

One of the best ball strikers on Tour, Kuchar finished well at the Tournament of Champions with a 71 and 69 in his last two rounds. Kuchar finished T5 at this tournament in 2011 and though he hasn't always played that well at this tournament, he's usually sharp at the beginning of the year (five January top 10s in the last three years is pretty incredible). I expect Kuchar to get things going in a big way this weekend after a nice warm-up at Kapalua.


Lock for Top 10 finish

Carl Pettersson

Odds: 20 to 1

World Ranking: 32nd

He's coming off a great 8th place performance at the Tournament of Champions and he finished T2 at this course last year. He drove the ball really well at Kapalua (34 of 45 fairways hit) and Waialae (where the Sony Open is played) is a course that values fairways hit.

Sleeper

Jerry Kelly

Odds: 80 to 1

World Ranking: 254th

Kelly led the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and as we noted with Pettersson, that's going to be a, pardon the pun, driving factor in determining a winner this weekend. Plus, Kelly has a history at the Sony Open. He's finished in the top 30 in six of his last seven outings there, highlighted by a third place finish in 2008. The journeyman ended the year hot (T9 and T4 in his last two events) and I expect him to pick up right where he left off.


Bet I Love

Bud Cauley (+800) to finish in the top five

World Ranking: 67th

Everybody's favorite sleeper, I know, but his rise to prominence is a legitimate thing. He finished T29 here last year and made 11 of his last 12 cuts on Tour last year. An already stellar week for the Crimson Tide of Alabama is about to get a little bit better.

Old Post 01-09-13 10:58 PM
bbaffert is offline Click Here to See the Profile for bbaffert Click here to Send bbaffert a Private Message Edit post   Report post
BIV2


Registered: Mar 2007
Posts: 477

I look at CBSports also.

Wanna Play Mark Wilson & Fowler but my site gives no odds for them. also no odds for like all of the above expert picks mentioned . jeez I may Play field at +120 .
I can get oostie at +400 and molinari at +1200. I always Like F Molinari..
Lots of players I would consider but they fall under the Field for me..

taking Molinari +1200

I hope its just because of the 2 day in between that I have missing odds for lots of players.

Good luck

Biv

Old Post 01-09-13 11:09 PM
BIV2 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for BIV2 Click here to Send BIV2 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
BIV2


Registered: Mar 2007
Posts: 477

SONY

Got some odds

Taking Senden +4500 And Gay +3500

good luck all

Old Post 01-10-13 12:44 AM
BIV2 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for BIV2 Click here to Send BIV2 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bear
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 737

Guys. BOL this week.

European Tour Volvo to win:
F Molinari: 13-1
Paul Lawrie: 24-1

PGA, Sony Open:
Bud Cauley: 35-1
Tommy Gainey: 75-1
The Field: 8-1*

*In regards to the field bet, I rarely take this. However, I feel at
this numer there is great value. There are 100+ golfers not listed with odds. I will take that at 8-1, thank you. I got those odds at Heritage for those wondering. This tournament is in Hawaii, so there is plenty of time to get this play in.

Old Post 01-10-13 11:21 AM
Bear is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bear Click here to Send Bear a Private Message Edit post   Report post
bostonshamrock
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 2090

good luck guys

my 2 this week at sony open to win

KEEGAN BRADLEY +1000

MATT KUCHAR +1200

Old Post 01-10-13 03:05 PM
bostonshamrock is online now Click Here to See the Profile for bostonshamrock Click here to Send bostonshamrock a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Post A Reply
  
  Last Message   Next Message

Quick Links: