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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

Some NFL info for this weekend

I am not a fan of trends but this one is kinda interesting. The thing that sticks out is SEATTLE is 5-1 vs playoff teams and 6-0 ATS vs these. The rest, I do not see much.

Record Versus Playoff Teams:
To determine which teams are overrated and underrated this postseason, let's look at how they've fared against other playoff teams in 2012 (first record is straight up; second is against the spread):


AFC Playoff Teams:
1. Denver - 2-3 (2-3 ATS)
2. New England - 3-3 (4-2 ATS)
3. Houston - 4-4 (4-4 ATS)
4. Baltimore - 3-4 (2-5 ATS)
5. Indianapolis - 3-3 (3-3 ATS)
6. Cincinnati - 2-3 (2-3 ATS)


NFC Playoff Teams:
1. Atlanta - 2-0 (2-0 ATS)
2. San Francisco - 3-2 (2-3 ATS)
3. Green Bay - 3-4 (3-4 ATS)
4. Washington - 2-3 (2-3 ATS)
5. Seattle - 5-1 (6-0 ATS)
6. Minnesota- 3-5 (3-5 ATS)

Old Post 01-08-13 04:46 PM
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bbaffert
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Posts: 7067

sea/atl stuff

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
Percentage of money on Atlanta: 51% (11,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 14-22 ATS since 2003 (11-17 since 2005).
Road Warriors: Playoff teams coming off a road win in Round 1 are 9-3 ATS in Round 2 since 2005.
Seahawks are 15-30 ATS on the road since 2006 if they're not coming off an away loss.
Seahawks are 2-11 ATS on the road vs. teams that average 24+ ppg since 2007.
Pete Carroll is 1-3 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.
Matt Ryan is 24-13 ATS at home.
Mike Smith is 17-6 ATS after a loss.
Opening Line: Falcons -1.
Opening Total: 45.5.
Weather: Dome.

Old Post 01-08-13 04:53 PM
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bbaffert
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hou/ne stuff

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
No surprise that the public is backing the host.
Percentage of money on New England: 72% (25,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Texans.
Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 14-22 ATS since 2003 (11-17 since 2005).
Patriots are 25-14 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.
Tom Brady is 146-48 as a starter (112-77 ATS).
Tom Brady is 16-6 in the playoffs (9-13 ATS).
Tom Brady is 19-26 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (9-19 ATS since November 2007).
Opening Line: Patriots -9.
Opening Total: 49.
Weather: .

Old Post 01-08-13 04:53 PM
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bbaffert
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balt/denver stuff

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
Lots of action on the Broncos.
Percentage of money on Denver: 71% (19,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.
Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 14-22 ATS since 2003 (11-17 since 2005).
John Fox is 7-3 ATS in the playoffs.
Peyton Manning is 8-0 SU and ATS vs. Ravens since 2004 (2-0 in playoffs).
Peyton Manning is 4-10 ATS in the playoffs (excluding games against terrible QBs: Jake Plummer, Trent Green, Rex Grossman).
Peyton Manning is 3-6 SU vs. 3-4 Defenses in the playoffs (6-4 SU vs. 4-3 Defenses).
Opening Line: Broncos -9.5.
Opening Total: 45.
Weather: .

Old Post 01-08-13 04:54 PM
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bbaffert
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gb/sf stuff

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
The Packers are a public dog.
Percentage of money on Green Bay: 70% (22,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Packers.
Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 14-22 ATS since 2003 (11-17 since 2005).
Aaron Rodgers is 43-23 ATS since 2009 (8-4 ATS as a favorite of 12+).
Aaron Rodgers is 22-11 ATS on the road as long as he's not favored by 6.5 or more points.
Aaron Rodgers is 10-6 ATS as an underdog.
49ers are 32-15 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.
Opening Line: 49ers -3.
Opening Total: 45.
Weather: .

Old Post 01-08-13 04:54 PM
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bbaffert
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Baltimore +9.5 at Denver -9.5

Ravens are 7-2 ATS past 9 vs. Denver
Broncos 4-1 ATS at home in playoffs since 2000
Broncos 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS past 9 home games
Broncos won 11 straight, 9-2 ATS
Broncos 12-0 SU, 10-2 ATS past 12 as favorite
Ravens 2-9 SU past 11 games as underdog
Ravens 0-16 SU as dog of 9 or more since 1994


Green Bay +3 at San Francisco -3

Packers 13-3 SU (12-3-1 ATS) past 16 vs. 49ers
Packers lost once here since 1980 (6-1 SU, 6-0-1 ATS)
Packers 12-3-1 ATS past 16 games as underdog
OVER is 7-1 past 8 49ers games overall


Seattle +2.5 at Atlanta -2.5

OVER is 5-1 past 6 meetings since 2002
Seahawks won and covered 3 straight road games
Seahawks 10-3 ATS past 13 games
UNDER is 6-1 past 7 Atlanta games
Seahawks 15-3-1 ATS past 19 games as underdog
UNDER is 9-2 past 11 Falcon games when favored
Falcons won 7 straight vs. NFC West teams
Falcons 3-7 ATS in playoffs since 2000


Houston +9.5 at New England -9.5

All four career meetings played OVER total
Texans 5-0 ATS past 5 games in January
Texans 6-1 ATS past 7 as underdog
Texans 7-2 SU past 9 vs. AFC East teams
Texans 3-0 ATS lifetime in playoffs
Patriots 1-6 ATS in playoffs since 2008

Old Post 01-08-13 05:03 PM
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bbaffert
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Adding this info

Interesting to me. Makes me lean to Seattle more.

Letdown Spot

Even though the Falcons posted a NFC-best 13-3 SU record, they were always priced behind teams like Denver, New England, Houston and San Francisco in the Super Bowl XLVII futures odds. Atlanta’s poor postseason history is to blame for that lack of respect. The Falcons have a reputation for falling on their faces in the opening playoff game.

Last year, they were trounced 24-2 by the New York Giants in the Wild Card Round. In 2011, Green Bay sent Atlanta packing with a 48-21 loss in the Divisional Round. And in 2009, the Falcons were defeated by the Arizona Cardinals in the Wild Card Round. In fact, Atlanta fans have to go all the way back to 2005’s win over the St. Louis Rams in the NFC Wild Card Game for the last time the Falcons got over the opening-game hump. Oddsmakers have set Atlanta as a 1-point home favorite hosting the Seattle Seahawks in its playoff opener Sunday.

Old Post 01-09-13 07:02 PM
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Tex
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Registered: Sep 2003
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"Oddsmakers have set Atlanta as a 1-point home favorite hosting the Seattle Seahawks in its playoff opener Sunday."


Did line open at 1 and go to three...




give a man a fish, you feed him for a day, teach a man to fish, he'll sit in a boat and drink beer all day"

Old Post 01-09-13 09:11 PM
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RDTrains
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Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 10869

From Covers

5 Dimes
01/06/13 8:07:42 PM -2.5(Open)-107 46(Open)-107


BetOnline
01/06/13 8:08:20 PM -1(Open)-130 45.5(Open)-110




Conroe, TX. Wishing I was retired.

Old Post 01-10-13 08:06 AM
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