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jbr_njc
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Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 1290

Why Washington Redskins Covers

The Redskins are one of the hottest teams in the league entering the playoffs. After a 3-6 start, it appeared that they would be just playing for pride the rest of the way. They werenít having any of it, going on to win each of their final seven games to win the NFC East and earn a first-round home game. They have gone a perfect 7-0 against the spread in the process.

Seattleís strength offensively is a rushing attack that ranks 3rd in the league at 161.2 yards per game. Washington counters with the 5th-ranked run defense in the NFL at 95.8 yards per game.

The Redskinsí strength on offense is a rushing attack that ranks 1st in the league at 169.3 yards per game. If the Seahawks have one weakness defensively, itís their ability to stop the run. They are giving up a whopping 4.5 yards per carry this season.

This play falls into a system that is 47-20 (70.1%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against road favorites (SEATTLE) Ė after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.

Seattle is just 3-5 straight up and 3-5 against the spread on the road this season. The Seahawks are 22-43 against the spread off a win against a division rival since 1992. Washington is 7-0 against the spread after playing a home game this season. The Redskins are 7-0 against the spread in their last 7 games following a win, and 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.


I believe with all this being said I believe the redskins match up well with seattle. Redskins strength is the run and seattle struggles with the run and seattle strength is there run but playing a tough redskin run defense. I will take

Redskins +3

Old Post 01-01-13 06:25 PM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

I REALLY like your write up. I love it when someone goes through the trouble of putting this much information about a game. Especially when it is good information, well thought out. Thank you.

Old Post 01-01-13 06:45 PM
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bbaffert
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Posts: 7067

something else to look at

"In a line that performed well Breno Giacomini (-5.2) was something of a weak link. Thatís something of a shame considering how he has improved himself in the second half of the season, grading positively in the seven games that proceeded this one.

Unfortunately, whether it was Chris Long or William Hayes, he had trouble stopping either man turning the corner on him. With some poor run work that saw him struggling to stop defenders get across his face, Seattle are left hoping this was an aberration and that heíll return to his more solid self come playoff time.

Only time will tell."

If he falters again vs Washington it might be important. It may be something to figure out who he will be dealing with against Washington and if they are good.

Old Post 01-01-13 06:51 PM
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bbaffert
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another situation to look at

Mebane Makes Presence Felt

There are plays where you watch Brandon Mebane (+2.5) and you think heís practically unstoppable. A big unit of a man, he tends to line up on the shoulder of the center and then sets about trying to wreak havoc from there. Matched up predominantly with Scott Wells, itís safe to say he won the majority of his battles, finishing the day with three defensive stops and a handful more plays where his impact redirected runners. Heís one to most definitely watch in the playoffs.

Might be smart to see who he matches up against on Washington and if they are solid enough to keep him at bay.

Old Post 01-01-13 06:55 PM
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bbaffert
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some redskins notes on dallas game

The Other Guy

If anyone was still overlooking Alfred Morris (+4.3) coming into this game, itís safe to say thatís not the case anymore. With RG3 slowed, his fellow rookie torched the Dallas defense on the ground en route to season-highs of 200 yards and three touchdowns on 33 carries. While you have to acknowledge the option game and the running abilities of his quarterback in his success, Morris certainly displayed the traits of an elite running back. He forced five missed tackles, gained 106 yards after initial contact, and used his speed to get to the edge on several long runs. And if you werenít impressed enough with his speed and power, those runs also included some masterful cutbacks, like the one on his 32-yard fourth quarter TD run that left safety Eric Frampton diving for air.

As the Redskins enter the playoffs, they hope they can get more out of their quarterback, who despite some impressive runs was clearly hobbled. But this kind of performance shows that they can certainly rely on their other prized rookie.

Lock Down Duo

While Romo will deservedly receive most of the blame for his and the Cowboy offenseís poor showing, credit the Washington cornerbacks, who made life extremely difficult for the Cowboy receivers all night. DeAngelo Hall (+1.7) went toe-to-toe with Dez Bryant and more than held his own, breaking up three passes and limiting the dynamic WR to four catches on eight targets. Not to be outdone by Hall was Josh Wilson (+2.6), who gave up just two receptions for 13 yards and picked off an underthrown pass, while producing a hit and hurry in five snaps rushing the passer. Aptly, Romo had a QB rating of just 8.3 when throwing in Wilsonís direction. Not bad for a guy whom QBs had a rating of 102.3 when targeting on the season.

Elder Statesman

In a must-win divisional game, itís interesting that some of the most impactful plays came from a 37-year-old linebacker, one that finished as our second-worst graded ILB this season. The Redskins clearly focused their defensive game plan on disrupting Romo, and London Fletcher was a significant part of that. He blitzed a season-high 16 times, mostly through the A-gaps, and came up with two sacks and an additional three pressures against a team that made some feeble attempts at handling the blitz. This performance doesnít make up for his dismal play this season, though, and again he didnít do much outside of the pass, with no stops in the run game despite a team-high nine tackles.

Outside of Fletcher, the Washington defense played well enough to win and looked strong in coverage, but otherwise underwhelmed on the front seven. Theyíll have to improve if they want to do better than one-and-done in the playoffs.

Old Post 01-01-13 06:57 PM
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jbr_njc
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one other factor is what seattle always calls the 12th man. Well in Washington on sunday night even RG3 had a hard time hearing the play call. I believe wilson is good but I believe he is going to have to call his own game the crowd is going to be roaring very loud. Redskins have not had a home play off game since 1999 and this is going to be against a rookie qb which is going to be nervous about playing in the play offs..

Old Post 01-01-13 07:42 PM
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Primetime21


Registered: Nov 2011
Posts: 368

Aren't both qb's rookies and nervous?

Old Post 01-01-13 09:21 PM
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jbr_njc
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one is on the road guess i should have said that but yes both will be nevous

Old Post 01-01-13 09:33 PM
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jbr_njc
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I have done a little more research to this game RG3 has only thrown 1 int at home this season while the defense has 10 ints this season. While the seahawks has a ratio of 9 tds 8 ints away from home. Here are the passer rating for each team and there defense passer rating as well.

Redskins Off
Attempts 201
Comp 129
Yards 1551
TDS 10
INT 3** 2 of them are from Cousins
Passer Rating of 98.1

Seahawks Off
Attempts 229
Comp 146
Yards 1614
TDS 9
INTS 8
Passer rating 83.1

Redskins Def
Attempts 291
Comp 178
Yards 2110
TDS 14
INTS 10
Passer rating 85


Seahawks Def
Attempts 263
Comp 156
Yards 1738
TDS 9
INTS 6
Passer rating 80.9

Old Post 01-02-13 03:49 AM
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Primetime21


Registered: Nov 2011
Posts: 368

Since week 6 on the road 7-2 TD/int ratio. Trending upwards not downwards.

Old Post 01-02-13 04:05 AM
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jbr_njc
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Primetime who are you talking about???? I think you might be talking about RG3 on the road? Seahawks since week 6 is 8TDS to 5 ints

Old Post 01-02-13 04:20 AM
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jbr_njc
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I know I am probably jumping on them to hard. The Redskins did something in there bye week that has changed there season around. Since there bye week at home they have a passer rating of 118.3 and a def passer rating of 72.2. on the road they have a passer rating of 115.2 and def is 80.5

Old Post 01-02-13 04:29 AM
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Primetime21


Registered: Nov 2011
Posts: 368

week 7 @ sf 0-1
week 8 @ det 2-1
week 12 @ mia 2-0
week 13 @ chi 2-0
week 15 @ buf 1-0

pardon my math. 7-2.

would you prefer we go total TD's both road and home from week 6? this one calls for an abacus

RW 21 passing TD's, 4 int's. 4 rushing td's 2 fumbles lost.

I just don't see a less than healthy RG3 winning this.

Old Post 01-02-13 06:10 AM
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jbr_njc
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Ok my math was wrong last night yes since week 6 you are right seahawks 7tds 2 ints. I still think it is going to be a good game. I am just glade everyone thinks seahawks is going to win. Which I believe the Redskins is one of the hottest teams going into the play offs. RG looked a lot better last week than he did the week before and if he does that this week I believe he will almost be at 100 percent. Here is your qb rating since week 6

Seahawks
Att 145
Comp 92
Yards 1080
TDS 7
int 2
Passer rating 96.3

Old Post 01-02-13 02:20 PM
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Primetime21


Registered: Nov 2011
Posts: 368

We agree that it'll be a great game but differ on outcomes :)

Old Post 01-02-13 05:11 PM
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playtowin
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Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 8329

Home dogs of 1 to 3 pts are 27-18 Since 1978 & 10-4 L 4 yrs.
Home dogs are 13-4 Since 1978 1st round.

Old Post 01-02-13 09:49 PM
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jharmon64


Registered: Feb 2009
Posts: 203

Home dogs

Great stuff playtowin, thanks for posting.

This is the only exciting game to watch this weekend.

Personally I think it's a coin flip, and the odds makers appear to agree.




"It's not about what you're capable of, It's about what you're willing to do." - Mike Tomlin

Old Post 01-03-13 12:21 AM
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playtowin
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Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 8329

Series: Wash 8-5 SU / 7-6 ATS / 6-7 O/U
Average Score: Wash 18.5 / Sea 17.3

Old Post 01-03-13 12:32 AM
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