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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

Bengals @ Eagles TNF information

Just sharing the info I get. I have not developed a lean either way, yet. This info is good and you will not find it elsewhere.

The last time Philadelphia and Cincinnati met was the last time an NFL game ended in a tie prior to this season. When the NFL made the Bengals and Eagles the matchup for the final Thursday game of the year, I’m guessing they expected Philadelphia to be the team fighting for a playoff spot. Despite this game only having playoff ramifications for Cincinnati, it should still be very interesting — the Eagles still have a number of players who have played well, but wherever there is a good Eagle, there will be a solid Bengal ready to put up a fight.

This week it’s a battle of strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness, but here we will focus on the strengths going head-to-head.

Evan Mathis vs. Geno Atkins

While most of the Eagles’ offensive line went down with an injury, one player has remained since Day 1. That is left guard Evan Mathis who is by far our highest ranked guard in 2012. In the pass game, this former Bengal has yet to allow a sack, and has a Pass Blocking Efficiency of 97.7; third-best for left guards in the league. Where he really stands out is in the run game, where he has a Run Block Rating of +1.6 or higher in nine of 13 games. On top of that, he is also the top-rated guard in screen blocking.

The Bengals like to move their defensive tackles around a lot. That means the NFL’s top tackle, Geno Atkins (who lines up at the right defensive tackle spot on 51.8% of plays), will get to face off with the league’s top guard often. Over the last five weeks Atkins has been dominant in pass rushing, with a sack in each of those games and an average of eight pressures per game. In the run game he leads all defensive tackles in run stops with 24, and has the second-highest Run Stop Percentage at 11.3%. If you ever want to spend a game focusing on an elite battle on the inside of the line, this is the time to do it.

Jason Avant vs. Leon Hall

The Eagles have become rather thin at receiver, with DeSean Jackson out for the year, and Jeremy Maclin now questionable for this game. Their best receiving option is Jason Avant who is coming off of back to back great games. Over that time, he has been targeted 14 times, and has 11 catches for 212 yards. The play of Avant was helpful in landing Nick Foles in our Team of the Week for Week 14.

The problem is Foles has yet to face a secondary like the Bengals, where the top seven defensive backs in terms of snaps have positive coverage ratings. Avant lines up in the slot on 86.7% of his snaps, which is the second-highest rate in the league. Over the last several games in the Bengals nickel defense, Adam Jones has come on the field to take Leon Hall’s place, while Hall moves over to line up in the slot. As a slot cornerback, Hall has allowed just 0.74 Yards per Coverage Snap which is the fourth-lowest in the league and over the last five games, he has allowed three catches or fewer in each game. If Hall can shut down Foles’ favorite target, then the Eagles won’t get very far in the pass game.

Bengals Offensive Line vs. Eagles Defensive Line

While a lot has gone wrong for the Eagles’ defense this year, they still have one of the better pass rushes in the league; as a team, their Pass Rushing Productivity of 26.9 ranks seventh. Defensive end Brandon Graham has been their most productive pass rusher with four sacks, six hits and 22 hurries on just 150 pass rushes. Philadelphia also has five defensive who have logged positive pass rush ratings on the year.

They go up against a Bengals team with an offensive line that is carrying a Pass Blocking Efficiency of 87.9 (which ranks behind only Denver), led by tackles Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith. Over the last three games Whitworth has allowed just a single hurry and the greatly improved Smith has yet to allow more than four pressures in a game. At guard they have a young combination of second-year player Clint Boling and rookie Kevin Zeitler, both of whom rank in the Top 6 in terms of PBE for guards. Andy Dalton has a quarterback rating of 98.3 when he is not under pressure, and 54.2 when he is, which doesn’t include his 32 times sacked.

Old Post 12-13-12 08:07 PM
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bbaffert
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Posts: 7067

More info to help guide you

Cincinnati @ Philadelphia

This week's Thursday night game pits against each other two teams at opposite ends of the NFL spectrum. In the thick of the AFC playoff hunt, 7-6 Cincinnati returns from a Week 14 choke-job loss to Dallas. 4-9 Philadelphia has accepted a lost season, auditioning young pups while vets ride the bench. Playing spoiler, those pups pulled off an upset of NFC playoff-contending Tampa Bay last week. The Bengals have two major on-paper advantages in this game. One lies in the defensive trenches. The other is in Cincinnati's passing game. ... Since the Week 7 firing of DC Juan Castillo, the Eagles have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 130-of-186 throws (69.9 percent) for 1,508 yards (8.11 YPA), and an 18:0 TD-to-INT ratio. It's a seven-game sample that bodes well for No. 11 overall fantasy passer Andy Dalton as a back-end QB1. He should be locked into two-quarterback league lineups. ... Philly's defense has been toasted for 12 catches, 229 yards, and three TDs by opposing No. 1 receivers Vincent Jackson and Dez Bryant the past two weeks. A.J. Green is better than both, and should have no trouble running by RCB Nnamdi Asomugha, and out-physicaling LCB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Fantasy owners need to confidently shake off Green's season-worst Week 14 game (3-44-0) and start him as a top-five WR1 on Thursday. The Eagles have allowed the third most passing touchdowns in the league.

Dalton's two-game target distribution since Mohamed Sanu suffered a year-ending foot fracture in the Bengals' Nov. 30 practice: Green 21, Andrew Hawkins 16, Jermaine Gresham 13, BenJarvus Green-Ellis 9, Marvin Jones 7. ... Replacing Sanu at No. 2 receiver, Jones flashed playmaking ability with 82 yards on four Week 14 touches. The fifth-round rookie isn't a realistic standard-league fantasy option, but Jones is a prospect to monitor. ... Finally seeing a deserved uptick in snaps, Hawkins has been a 70-percent player in Cincinnati's offense since Sanu's injury. Coming off a 6-44-1 line against Dallas, Hawkins is worth a look from owners scrambling for WR3 options. He has a favorable matchup versus rookie slot corner Brandon Boykin. ... Philadelphia is 22nd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, giving Gresham an average to below-average Week 15 matchup. Heavily utilized as a blocker and on pace for under 800 yards, Gresham typically pays fantasy dividends only when he scores red-zone touchdowns. Four of Gresham's five TDs this season have occurred on plays inside the opponent's 20-yard line. ... The Eagles rank a middling 17th against the run. Having totaled at least 100 yards in four straight games, Green-Ellis has been sprung for long gains at a career-high rate over the past month behind an at-times dominant Bengals offensive line. Green-Ellis is a respectable, if relatively low-upside flex play in Week 15.

Stringing together back-to-back competent performances, Nick Foles has completed 59 of his last 90 throws (65.6 percent) for 676 yards (7.51 YPA), and a 3:0 TD-to-INT ratio. He scored a fourth touchdown on last week's molasses-slow red-zone scramble. Foles has exhibited promising traits with a live arm and instinctive pocket mobility, although he's in for his toughest test yet versus Cincinnati's AFC-best front four in Week 15. While Philly's offensive line has improved recently, it hasn't faced an opponent capable of knifing through the interior like Geno Atkins' Bengals. Foles is a two-quarterback league option and nothing more. ... Foles' target distribution through five appearances: Jeremy Maclin 39, Riley Cooper 28, Brent Celek 22, Jason Avant 18, Clay Harbor 17, Bryce Brown 16, Damaris Johnson 9. ... Despite his team-high target numbers, Maclin has been maddeningly inconsistent with yardage totals of 93, 0, 55, 38, and 104 in Foles' five games. Maclin's featured role with DeSean Jackson (ribs) and Celek (concussion) sidelined keeps him in the WR3 conversation in a plus matchup with Bengals 34-year-old LCB Terence Newman. ... Cooper has been Philly's first-team "X" wideout in Jackson's absence, with Maclin moving to Z. Primarily a blocker and red-zone specialist, Cooper has failed to clear 40 yards in his two starts.

The Eagles have used a three-wide, shotgun-heavy offense in Foles' last two starts, thrusting slot man Avant into an every-down role. Pro Football Focus charted Avant with 71-of-76 snaps (93.4 percent) in last week's loss to Tampa Bay. Avant has made some nice catches en route to 212 yards the past two weeks, but he'll have the most difficult matchup among Philadelphia receivers if the Bengals play "sides" at cornerback, as they usually do. In Cincy's passing-down defense, Pacman Jones mans right corner with Newman on the left and top CB Leon Hall in the slot. Avant would draw Hall on the majority of Thursday's snaps. ... Weeks 12-13 hero Bryce Brown will likely be benched in many fantasy leagues against the Bengals, following last week's clunker in Tampa. It's important to note that no one runs on the Buccaneers, however. The Bucs allow 78.2 rushing yards per game, fewest in the league by more than a dozen. Whereas Tampa Bay's top-ranked run defense tilts its nose tackle in a cocked stance to tie up multiple blockers, freeing the linebackers to blow up run plays, Cincinnati's 11th-ranked group utilizes a more aggressive, up-field style geared toward rushing the passer and causing backfield penetration. The penetration would be greater cause for concern if Brown lacked speed to beat linebackers to the perimeter. But Brown has speed in spades, and Foles' improvement should only help the efficiency of the run game going forward. Start Brown on Thursday night as a high-upside, if moderately high-risk RB2.

Score Prediction: Bengals 23, Eagles 17

Old Post 12-13-12 08:08 PM
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bbaffert
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Cincinnati plays at Philadelphia this week on Thursday Night. Benjarvus Green-Ellis is coming off an 89 yard rushing day vs. Dallas, preceded by three straight 100-yard efforts. He is definitely someone to target as a RB2 this week. The Eagles gave up 128 yards rushing to Doug Martin last week and have allowed a rushing touchdown in back to back games. The changes made on defense by the Eagles have not yet yielded a noticeable improvement in their run defense. For those starting AJ Green, this is a good match up for you. Andy Dalton is a decent start. There is a strong probability that we will see him return to his multiple touchdown pass ways. He has seven multiple touchdown pass efforts in 13 games this year.

Nick Foles passed for 382 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Buccaneers, who continue to give up passing yardage like a last place team. Foles will have more difficulty against the Bengals strong pass rush this week, so don’t expect another big yardage game. The early word is that LeSean McCoy (concussion) will not be ready to return this week, which means another week of Bryce Brown carrying the load. He struggled to get off the ground last week, but it was also against the number one rush defense in the league. I expect the Eagles to utilize Brown more this week. In my opinion he’s a good RB2 start. Jeremy Maclin (groin) may not be available this week, which would open the door for Riley Cooper and Jason Avant to see increased snaps. Avant is coming off a 100-yard game last week. He and Cooper are desperation flex options against Cincinnati. One or both could be decent, but it’s not a foregone conclusion.

Old Post 12-13-12 08:30 PM
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more info to help you decide

Passing Game Thoughts: Second year QB Andy Dalton has built upon his fine rookie season to become a top 10 fantasy QB this season. He’s fortunate to throw to one of the most talented WRs in the league in A.J. Green and an up and coming tight end in Jermaine Gresham, but he’s also made very good use out of lesser known types like Andrew Hawkins and rookies Mohammad Sanu and Marvin Jones. Jones has moved into a significant role with Sanu lost for the season and contributed last week when Green was mostly held in check. Expect A.J. to have a bounce-back game as he can dominate just about any cornerback in the league with his size, speed and sure hands.

Prior to last week it seemed the Eagles’ defense had lost interest in what has become a lost season for the team. Opposing teams have thrown for 25 passing TDs against them, but last week they held a decent Buccaneer passing attack in check. Andy Dalton and company will be looking to once again deflate the spirit of the Philadelphia secondary that’s giving up the sixth most fantasy points to Quarterbacks.

Running Game Thoughts: Former Patriot BenJarvus Green-Ellis isn’t going to “wow” anyone on film. He’s a solid grinder that hits the holes hard and gets the yards that are blocked for him and at times, a little more. BJGE follows in a long line of move-the-chains type runners that have thrived in the Marvin Lewis era. He’s benefitted from a young and under-rated o-line anchored by the resurgent play of top 10 pick RT Andre Smith.

The Eagles much maligned “wide 9” defense should be susceptible to Cincinnati’s power running scheme that looks to punch the ball up the middle of the defense. However, the unit despite all of the critics has performed more than adequately allowing 119.3 ypg and a mere 7 rushing TDs on the season.

Projections:
Andy Dalton: 285 yds passing 2 TDs
Andrew Hawkins: 45 yds receiving
A.J. Green: 90 yds receiving, 1 TD
Marvin Jones: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jermaine Gresham: 65 yds receiving
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 75 yds rushing, 1 TD / 10 yds receiving
Brian Leonard: 20 yards rushing / 15 yards receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: Michael Vick has almost fully recovered from his concussion, but as all of you are likely aware the starting gig belongs to rookie Nick Foles for the rest of the season. That decision was made before last week’s game, but Foles went out and earned it anyway with the best performance of his professional career. Foles threw for 381 yards and 2 TDs, including the last second game winning TD pass to Jeremy Maclin. Foles also ran for a score as well. Maclin had his best game since Foles’ took over and his owners will hope the momentum carries over to the short week. Unfortunately for Foles and the Eagles, TE Brent Celek will be out on Thursday night leaving backup Clay Harbor as the only option at the position.

The Bengals pass rush lead by DE Geno Atkins has been devastating this season, leading the league with 42 sacks. They have knocked opposing QBs around on a weekly basis and Nick Foles may be in a ton of trouble behind a banged up subpar o-line. The Bengals are allowing only 225 passing ypg and only 14 passing TDs on the season ranking the team in the top 10 amongst passing units.

Running Game Thoughts: Bryce Brown shined in his first two career starts, but struggled mightily against Tampa’s top ranked run defense last week. The Eagles gave him only 12 carries with their passing attack leading the way and with Dion Lewis taking a bigger role as a result. Brown gained over 300 yards and scored four times in his first two games while hitting the hole decisively and showing off his rare combination of size and speed, so a bounce back effort should be in order after his limited involvement last week. Starter LeSean McCoy could return soon based on recent reports so Brown owners will want to take advantage of perhaps his last opportunity as the bell cow in the backfield.

Projections:
Nick Foles: 225 pass yds, 1 TD, 1 Int.
Damaris Johnson: 40 rec yds
Riley Cooper: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Jeremy Maclin: 80 rec yds
Clay Harbor: 30 rec yds
Bryce Brown: 105 rush yds, 1 TD / 25 rec yds

Prediction: Bengals 27, Eagles 14

Old Post 12-13-12 08:42 PM
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bbaffert
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All I see is Cincy, Cincy, Cincy.

The biggest factor IMO is
Cincy has NFL BEST 42 sacks this season.

Phily has given up 3rd to last 41 sacks this season.

You have to ignore Phily last week. They played a horrible D in TB and still were not that impressive.

Expect Cincy to force a fumble and pick at least one. Not a good night for Phily.

Cincy -4 is the play here.

Also like teaser Cincy/Detroit.

Old Post 12-13-12 08:57 PM
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ryanjep


Registered: Oct 2007
Posts: 431

just a few more pieces of info

eagles are 0-11 lifetime ats against the bengals and 3-7-1 straight up.

evan mathis did not practice this week and from what i've heard is questionable for the game. I have to wait closer to game time to hear if he is going to start or not.

Old Post 12-13-12 09:16 PM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

almost a shed bet, i do not think I made it clear. Cincy -4 all the way. just a solid better than average play though. everything lines up for cincy, nothing for phily

Old Post 12-14-12 01:16 AM
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bbaffert
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Posts: 7067

Cincy -4 W

NFL 20-7

Old Post 12-14-12 03:50 PM
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pointmagic
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 5645

You have been on fire in the NFL the last few weeks. Nice work.

Old Post 12-14-12 04:15 PM
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