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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

Two good early lines for next week

SF+4 vs NE
No matter what, NE is going to be drained from tonights game. If someone were to get hurt this line gets turned all around.

GB-3 vs CHI
Fade the Bears. Been waiting on this one for a while. I see -3 +100 which is solid.

Just tossing it out there. Early lines are normally good ones to get if you can. These will be two of my plays next week no matter what but it is a good idea to grab a little now and see how the line moves.

Old Post 12-11-12 12:34 AM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

This one stands out some

on initial inspection.

New Orleans -3 vs TB
TB cannot stop pass at all, ask Phily. Not as good as the other 2 and probably wont change much.

Old Post 12-11-12 12:41 AM
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mikeb104
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Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 7535

I think NE splits their next two games.
If they lose to Houston tonite, then I agree with you, if not then I will probably go a little heavy on the pats next week




"Not everything you read on the internet is accurate"- Abraham Lincoln

Old Post 12-11-12 12:51 AM
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TheDarkKnight


Registered: Oct 2012
Posts: 136

SF +6 just opened from my local. I jumped all over it. The ML isn't up yet, I'll be sure to put a sprinkle on that as well.

Old Post 12-11-12 07:45 PM
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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

Yeah,

That big NE win moved it up making it an ever better play now.

The NO line went up to -3.5. No big deal but I think that one may keep rising.

Texans line went down .5 to -9. I think it is too high and might go lower after last night. I hate those big lines but Houston really did not play a game last night so they basically had a bye. Still, if I had to play I would probably back Indy but not that confident either way.

Old Post 12-11-12 08:03 PM
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Addictedninja


Registered: Nov 2011
Posts: 166

So I grabbed a little of Packers at -3, do u suggest waiting on 49ers +5.5? I've seen it from other books go as high as +6.5. Thanks

Old Post 12-12-12 06:15 PM
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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

I think the line is fine. I would have played it at 4 so anything now is a bargain.

You could wait though, the place I have been watching had it at 4, moved it to 6 the morning after the game, and now seems SF money came in and dropped it to 5.5. It may be steady there but Pats fans can really move a line. When the public got involved on MNF they moved it up.

No harm in waiting.

Old Post 12-12-12 06:58 PM
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easyjane


Registered: Dec 2012
Posts: 31

ooo baby what sucker bets heres your lollipop Vegas is saying

start sucking it boys and girls if there are any in here

hey wait no i'm the only one allowed to suck on things L*

anayway it seems you guys got it righ Patsies are fat happy and thumping thier chest now in comes a team on reg schedule with the #2 ranked defense in NFL

and that Brady dec unbeaten record goes down the drain

really i can see 49ers boys wreaking havoc on lil ooo pretty boy tommy and his wife gasping with hands over mouth while up in the box

TEXans line seems high but

colts so lame last week vs Titans squeaked a 4 point win losing the whole game i cant back these ponies on the road i tried once when they were a dog +10 1/2@ patriots

and saw them get waxed 59-24

crazy that texans favored this much after losing by 28 points




**** you all losers

Old Post 12-12-12 07:02 PM
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easyjane


Registered: Dec 2012
Posts: 31

ooooo yeah if you member every year saints after beating rival TB at Tampa when rematch late in year at home Saints lost the game s/u and ats

Saints have nothing to play for just pride

Tampa has shot at playoffs and i feel better team than saints

safer bet is overs with these two clubs loose defenses




**** you all losers

Old Post 12-12-12 07:09 PM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

Andrew Luck faced pressure on a ridiculous 23-of-39 dropbacks, where he completed just 5-of-18 passes. That interior of the line isnít helping him.

Tennessee had four players (Morgan, Marks, Klug and Jarius Wynn) who recorded at least four quarterback pressures, yet Kamerion Wimbley managed just the one.

That is against Tennessee, I only imagine what the Houston D will do with him. I know they have secondary issues but you need time to throw, LUCK will not have any luck.

Old Post 12-12-12 08:32 PM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

Looking at the lines

teaser
texans -3
SF+11

Is looking really sweet right now.

Texans wont lose at home to Indy, no way. We know them way too well and their OL is about as bad as it gets.

San Fran will keep that game close if not win SU. They surely will not lose by over 10. Plus NE should have some kind of letdown. I have seen it all year, MNF to SNF tends to be too much for teams.

Old Post 12-13-12 01:26 AM
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Addictedninja


Registered: Nov 2011
Posts: 166

bbaffert

Thoughts on Redskins -1 vs Browns? Line somes strange to me but RG3 seems like he will go and they are on a playoff hunt still. I know Browns won 3 straight but they are against at that time weak,injured steelers, Oak, and Chiefs. No shed bet this wknd? Thanks for help!

Old Post 12-13-12 02:59 PM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

mr ninja,

Really do not have many feelings on that game. RGIII is supposed to wear a brace so who knows how that will affect him. Wash is really bad vs the pass and Weeden has actually started to look solid. Wash is pretty good at stopping the run which should help. Cleveland has a solid D, it is not great but it is solid.

I can give you some more info this weekend, right now I just do not see a big enough edge.

As for shed bet, not sure either, too early.

Old Post 12-13-12 04:25 PM
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rulerob


Registered: Jan 2012
Posts: 56

bbaffert

I agree on the Bears/Packer line since it came out early week and cant believe it has not moved yet.

As a bears fan, I just cant see anyway that the packers don't run away with this game and cover easily.

both teams moving in opposite directions and GB getting healthy and Bears opposite.

I follow this hated rivalry all my life and as painful as it is, I know how the bears fare vs GB and don't know why the line is only at 3. I know this is pretty much a must win for the bears, but the D is not creating turnovers anymore and offense still very inconsistent, and we wont even get into the O line.

Sure seems like an early Christmas gift to me......am I missing something here?

and PS: thanks to all the great work you do here!

Old Post 12-13-12 08:34 PM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

The line can only be this low because the game is in Chicago.

It does not matter. Chi has a hard time with good offenses. A very good play here.

Old Post 12-13-12 09:08 PM
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doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3227

sf/ne

Don't know how to make a link.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/frank_deford/09/12/betting-in-the-nfl/index.html

Interesting read
sf already cashed earlier in the season as a six point fav against det.

Old Post 12-13-12 09:30 PM
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Addictedninja


Registered: Nov 2011
Posts: 166

Thanks BB

Thanks for your input on the washington game. The more I look at the packers game the more I like it. Its at even money right now at my book.

Old Post 12-14-12 04:28 PM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

4-0 (pending the Niners coming within four and eleven for the teaser)

Do not want to jinx the niners but going to keep this thread going since the early lines are out.

Problem is none are quite as nice as last weeks gifts.

Indy -6
stands out quite a bit and may squeeze to 5.5. I mean KC could not score against Oakland!!! The could not run against Oakland! Oakland cannot stop the run but with KC you only have to worry about the run.

Carolina is teaser heaven IMO. Drop it to -3 vs. Oakland. Slip it in with Green Bay -5 and it looks pretty good here.

Just thinking in advance. Better to do this tomorrow night with a couple more line though but we had a good conversation here last week and what we all want, winners!

Old Post 12-17-12 03:34 AM
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DRB
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Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 1535

NFL isnt easy.....so let me say...

Wow!!! Congrats

Old Post 12-17-12 03:29 PM
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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

6-0 here

Will take a peek tomorrow when I get more sleep.

Old Post 12-23-12 09:56 PM
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