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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

Houston/New England BET THE SHED!

NE -3.5

More info later but I know the Texans, they cannot stop this team. Joseph is most likely back but it will not matter. Welker is going to be open all day. The rain will slow down the Texans blitz. The Texans as a whole have a very hard time with off fields and this one will be off. Rain or shine, the Pats win this one. I knew it from the time the line went off, I just wanted to find a reason to put the Texans as winners but there is not one. New England exploits the Texans secondary and forces a couple turnovers in the rain.

Old Post 12-09-12 09:45 PM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

A pack/pats tease is also a very solid wager. I do not care for them but in this case it is a pick for me, just not a shed worthy play because too much wrong can happen with 2 games involved to risk that much.

Old Post 12-09-12 09:50 PM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

Texans Road This year

Jacksonville
Denver
NYJ
Chicago
Detroit
Tennessee

Not that imposing of a road schedule to me. At Denver, the Texans were playing 100% healthy aka Cushing, Reed, Newton and Joseph.

Bears game drained/injured both teams. Texans are not healthy on D right now and it has shown. No Cushing, No Reed, No Newton and Joseph will play but not 100% and it shows.

Old Post 12-09-12 10:46 PM
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Bear
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Registered: Aug 2007
Posts: 737

BB, i know you have been money on these shed picks. I just disagree here. you know your texans...i know my patriots. pats are going to havetrouble with that front four of houston. edleman is out. No gronk. Leaves welker, lloyd and hernandez. they likely double welker. lloyd would need to step up big for the pats. Pats have let much lesser offenses put points up to make it close at end of games. I see texans getting the w here. 36-30.
Just my .02 cents.

Old Post 12-09-12 11:35 PM
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pointmagic
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Registered: Nov 2005
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"The rain will slow down the Texans blitz."

LOL

Sounds like opinion more than data.

.

Old Post 12-09-12 11:48 PM
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bbaffert
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Sounds like I watched the Texans play the Bears in the rain and get very little pressure on a QB the only time this season. Not even a good push on the line of scrimmage. Sounds like it stuck out like a sore thumb in a season where the Texans have lived in other teams backfields and I noticed.

The Bears did not do much better moving the line. I noticed that also.

No footing on the wet surface. Texans had a big problem with slipping and have had one even on dry surfaces this season.

Old Post 12-10-12 12:17 AM
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bbaffert
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Data:
0 sacks for the Texans in that game and only 1 for the Bears.

Old Post 12-10-12 12:18 AM
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ronnie111
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i don't have a shed.




have you ever felt like the world is a tuxedo and you're a pair of brown shoes?

Old Post 12-10-12 12:31 AM
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pointmagic
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bbaffert

Relax. I wasn't trying to embarrass you with my post. It's just that betting the shed/20% of your bankroll on the rain is comical to me. You may very well win this bet since history favors the Patriots in this game. If you win it won't be because of the rain.

GL

Old Post 12-10-12 01:01 AM
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bbaffert
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You told me to relax, that is comical. I have anxiety disorder, I wish I could but hey I am laughing.

Anyways, here goes the bbaffert rant. Sorry, I just cannot help myself. You guys that know me for all these years probably now know why I tend to go on and on and on. It is the mental thing. It does help with capping though. If I leave screws unturned it bothers me.

Those were just initial thoughts. My first words were more on this later and I mentioned the Texans wont stop Welker,etc. A small percent of my inital thoughts were about rain and I clearly said RAIN OR SHINE pats win this one. Before you started on about rain I posted a few things non related to rain.

You latched on the rain thing for some reason. I have a whole day to explain my reasoning and I always do go in depth about every portion of the game I know about or can get information on.

As for history, I do not really care about that much. I do not do trends and all those things. They do not work for me. It is about right now, not so and so is 100-1 on the 2nd Monday night football game in December. When the Pats win tomorrow, it will not be history, it will be that they know how to capitalize on another teams weakness better than most.

In the FUTURE, Tomorrow, the Texans secondary is going to have a hard time. Tomorrow, Joseph will still have issues with his hamstring and there will be mismatches for New England to capitalize on. Tomorrow, Brady will make the passes and the Pats recievers will make the catches that other teams have not.

Tomorrow is the future though and tomorrow I might be wrong. It will not be the first and I know it will not be the last but if HISTORY repeats itself I am more likely to be right than wrong, RIGHT?

Just saying, I did say RAIN OR SHINE and I am not a fool who would bet on just one factor, you do not even give me the benefit of the doubt on that one before jumping to unreal conclusions. That is why I am a little bothered but hey I am a bit sick in the mind so I am probably overreacting as usual so you can probably take all I said with a grain of salt.

Old Post 12-10-12 02:05 AM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
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Ohh wait, crazy is back.

Embarass me, LOL!!!!! The broken down, mental patient who had to beg his friends for money right here on this board. Sorry, embarass me, LOL.

I love you man!

Old Post 12-10-12 02:08 AM
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pointmagic
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Registered: Nov 2005
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I sincerely apologize for leaving that remark on your thread. Please forgive me for making light of your thought processes as I had no idea you would take it to heart.

Best regards,
John

Old Post 12-10-12 02:26 AM
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bbaffert
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I am sorry also. I try so hard not to overreact to stuff and I have been doing well but I know this was me overreacting. I apologize and hope to have a good relationship with you.

Old Post 12-10-12 02:46 AM
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pointmagic
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I've been known to overreact on here myself. Chasing thirty Tigresons by the tail has had me seeing red before too!!

Good luck on your play, but I hope your 4-1 on shed plays after the game.

LOL

.

Old Post 12-10-12 02:49 AM
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bbaffert
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That pairing could be a real problem for Houston without cornerback Brice McCain, who had surgery on his left foot on Monday. Brandon Harris, a second-year pro, will replace him despite having played in just four games this season.

“Welker has 92 catches and I don’t think Brandon has 29 plays,” Houston defensive coordinator Wade Phillips said. “It’s a challenge, certainly. We expect him to step up and play. We’re going to try to help him in certain areas, but it’s going to be one-on-one some. It’s going to be one-on-one pass rush with our guys to put pressure on the guy and it’s going to be one-on-one for our guys to cover them sometimes. That’s just how it is.”


This is my biggest concern right here. Harris has been horrible. He is not NFL caliber and he is lining up against probably the best slot receiver in the nfl right now.

Old Post 12-10-12 03:25 AM
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bbaffert
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ABORT THIS MISSION!

I cannot sleep.

I just do not like this play. Too many things just are not sitting right with me on this. I have to be 80% confident to bet the shed myself and I cannot say I am even 60% confident on this game. It is a tossup at best.

This Texans D line on a good day can wreck havoc on any team in the nfl. JJ Watt is a force of nature. They played really well last week with Cody back at Nose tackle.

Listen to someone else on this one. There is no way I can watch this game tomorrow night and not root 100% for the Texans. I am not built that way at all. I cannot have people wagering on my word when I am not way more confident in the outcome.

I just do not have enough ammo in the gun to call this a shed play. Just not enough info leaning to one side or the other. It lessons the integrity of the shed plays if I feel I am forcing it.

Play this one either way at your own risk. I got nothing here but a headache. This game is a very tough call.

Old Post 12-10-12 04:26 AM
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HoustonFan
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Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 4219

Not touching this game...I'll just watch and pull for the Texans!




"Just Got Paid" -- ZZ Top
2008,2009 NCAA HOF Battle of the Brackets Champion

Old Post 12-10-12 12:07 PM
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nxt2g


Registered: Dec 2007
Posts: 261

Wish I knew you changed your mind BEFORE I placed my bet! Ahhh




"I figured that if I said it enough, I would convince the world that I really was the greatest." -Muhammad Ali

Old Post 12-10-12 11:24 PM
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bbaffert
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Posts: 7067

Sorry bro, all I can say is your getting good value since the line moved up so much. You can always take some Houston +6 and small ML and pretty much break even and get a almost free shot at the middle. You just have to figure the numbers right.

The game is tough though. Either way in this one your tossing a coin. At the -3 to -4 range value was NE. At -6 or -7 range, value is in Houston. ML value is with Houston now at +200 or higher.

This game has become a big clusterduck!

GL to all. My opinion is that no one has a real clue as to what is going to happen and the best way now is to just get some value wherever you can find it.

Old Post 12-10-12 11:33 PM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

Texans Running Game vs. Patriots Front Seven

The trench battle will be one to watch as the Texans pit their zone blocking scheme up against a stout Patriots front seven. Running back Arian Foster has not made defenders miss as much as last season as his Elusive Rating has dropped from 28.0 to 11.8. Despite the drop-off, he’s found the end zone 13 times and his one-cut style generally makes good use of the Texans’ offensive line. Up front, the line has not blocked as effectively as last season, but they still feature potential Pro Bowlers in left tackle Duane Brown and center Chris Myers. Brown is our top-rated tackle overall and he ranks second in run blocking. Myers is grading well as a run blocker too and the Texans’ running backs love to run right off his backside in the zone scheme — 37 percent of their rushing yards have come directly to either side of Myers at 4.6 yards per carry. Foster will be seeking out holes from Myers on Monday night.

Despite the criticism the Patriots’ defense has faced in recent years, they’re built to stop the run. It starts up front with defensive tackle Vince Wilfork who’s been on a tear since I questioned his production this season. He’s graded at +7.1 over the last three games and vaulted to 11th at the position in Run Stop Percentage at 7.9 percent. At linebacker, Brandon Spikes does a great job of blowing up blocking schemes to help fellow linebacker Jerod Mayo make plays. Mayo ranks second among 4-3 outside linebackers in Run Stop Percentage at 11.0 percent and he’s missed only four tackles this season. The Texans’ offense revolves around their running game and play action so the trench battle is one to watch on Monday night.

Old Post 12-10-12 11:37 PM
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