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pointmagic
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 5645

MNF Black Swan Event

Everyone has seen the stats on the Brady bunch and they are quite impressive indeed.

The Patriots are 20-0 SU during the second-half of the season since 2010.

The Patriots are 10-1 in their last 11 Monday night contests, with the wins coming by an average of more than 20 points.

The early sharp money pounded the Texans. Now the public is pounding the Pats, and who can blame them with these stats right? If you follow the LVH contest you will notice that the Texans received very little interest this week as most gamblers don't see the Pats losing at home, hence the Black Swan event.

If the trend is truly your friend the Pats will blow out the Texans this week, and this may be one the rare times that points may be of little concern. This game looks to be either a blowout win for the home team, or an upset victory for the visitors.

Current events form future trends. The Texans have a much better defense, and Brady is missing some of his key weapons on offense this week. With the Texans being 6-0 on the road this year, I will gamble with them getting +170 in this spot.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory



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Old Post 12-09-12 06:41 PM
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DRB
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Going to tail....good luck.

Old Post 12-09-12 07:10 PM
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pointmagic
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DRB

Did you get down on the spread too? I may grab the points just in case it's a close game. Did you bust'em in a.ss at the Bellagio this week?


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Old Post 12-09-12 10:20 PM
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bbaffert
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Wow!

I Bet we just threw DRB for a loop.

Old Post 12-09-12 10:36 PM
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pointmagic
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loop

I'm not really sure why your opinion is going to effect someone who is following mine.

Old Post 12-09-12 11:41 PM
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bbaffert
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I talked to DRB a few hours after his post here and you and I have different opinions on this game. I did not see this post until after I had talked to him.

It is cool, you did not know that.

Good luck on the game. If people did not have different opinions on games then there would be no need for the books.

Old Post 12-10-12 12:47 AM
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pointmagic
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I didn't even know you knew DRB. If someone makes a post in your thread saying they are tailing you. Then I come into the mix saying that they should be thrown for a loop because I like the other side. Doesn't that seem like attention seeking behavior to you?

That's why I was mildly defensive.

Can we be friends again now?

.

Old Post 12-10-12 01:11 AM
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bbaffert
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Crazy here

I say "Its cool you did not know."

You say, "I didn't even know you knew DRB."

WOW!

I know, I just said it! Confused yet?

Either way, I did not say, ohh geez I have the other play yada yada bada bing.

I was being friendly to you and you go all Rambo's mama on me.

We can be friends but be honest here and now and just say you do not like me or you had a bad day because that is truly the only thing that explains all this.

Old Post 12-10-12 02:13 AM
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pointmagic
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bbaffert

"We can be friends but be honest here and now and just say you do not like me or you had a bad day because that is truly the only thing that explains all this."


I'm not a very likable guy, but I do offer my intellectual capacity to anyone who can use it free of charge.

Merry Christmas.

.

Old Post 12-10-12 02:31 AM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

Thanks, for letting me off the hook gently. I go overboard on little things, I am working on it. I probably would have trouble sleeping without your last couple posts so thank you.

Merry Christmas to you also.

Old Post 12-10-12 02:49 AM
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DRB
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Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 1535

funny stuff

I havent laughed so hard since I bet the under in todays Giants game..
.I bet Houston M/L...and teased GB with NE. I hate the NFL as you know John. I am sorry we missed each other this weekend at Bellagio. Mike...I would love to meet you at some point. As I am sitting on my plane home and writing this though...I am glad to be considered friends of both you. Thanks for the wisdom in the NFL...I need it!

Old Post 12-10-12 03:34 AM
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