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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

NFL 11-25 thoughts/picks

14-3 NFL
2-0 shed bets

Ten -3 is excellent. Just remember Jaxs played like 2 football games on Defense Sunday vs Houston. Big day on Offense for Jaxs vs Hou but HOU was worn the hell out after that rain drenched battle with CHI. Love TEN -3. I mean LOVE LOVE! Jaxs will be so flat and worn out after that game they will get beat down by Tennessee.

Posted the above early on the early lines to take. Now we are looking at -4, still an excellent bet, maybe a shed bet by Sunday.

More that I wrote earlier this week, still applies.
Tennessee has Shed bet written all over it.

Right now it is -3 EVEN and it is most likely my play of the week.

Consider this

Tenn had a bye. They were relaxing, healing, and spending time with their families while on the other hand JAX was playing Defense for 92 plays and 41:40.

We are talking about a completely spent Defense vs a totally rested Defense. JAX is going to be horrible on D in this one. Tenn has enough weapons to really break the Jax D fast just like SF did last night.

Ten -3 even is a great play for the upcoming sunday. JAX will not show up on D and it will show.

Old Post 11-23-12 08:39 PM
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bbaffert
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Posts: 7067

Other play from early thoughts

Other consideration even though I do not see a line.

Clevelands D was actually on the field for a little bit longer than JaXS. Less plays but more time. Still they gave it all they had on Sunday and have to come right back and deal with PITT.

The numbers
CLE vs PITT
Plays on D- 78 to 57
1st downs given up - 30 to 12
Time playing D - 42:16 to 27:09

That is a ton of Defense that Cleveland had to play and it started to show in the 4th quarter vs Dallas. That should carry over to the game vs Pitt.

We need to see the line and figure out if Batch is going to be Pitt QB but that only helps us because it will keep the line low. I know Pitt is starting to become more of a pass happy team but they do have a two to three headed monster of fresh running backs to carry the load. They averaged 5.0 yrds a carry for the Balt D. I am sure they can do this well vs the tired Cleveland D. Balt also really had a hard time running vs Pitt. 2.0 yrds a carry from RAY RICE. That is playing Defense.

Let us see the line but PITT looks like another solid play for Sunday.

Pittsburgh -1

QB does not matter. Cleveland will be flat, Pitt should get off to a great start but at worst CLE will be worn out in the 3rd/4th quarters.

Old Post 11-23-12 08:41 PM
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bbaffert
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Posts: 7067

So the plays are

TENN -4 (was ready at -3)
PITT -1

I may do some more research but they are what I am picking. Just take note of how poorly the Texans played Thursday as all the leverage you need to bet Tennessee.

Cleveland is in a similar situation so they can be bet against with confidence.

The bad D by Jaxs and Cle will be the key here. Flat footed and tiring fast.

Old Post 11-23-12 08:45 PM
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bbaffert
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Minnesota may be an added 3rd play, it just depends on the line. It is weaker than the other two no matter the situation. Harvin is not playing so that really hurts the Minn offense. I not sure on this one but if the line is right it is surely playable thanks to A. Peterson and his recent explosions. Chi may be able to just key on him so we need a solid line before it is a play.

Old Post 11-23-12 08:48 PM
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bbaffert
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I have to say this again. We are still struggling. The fact of the matter is my wife still has been unable to find work. Not for a lack of trying but she is 40 and many of these bars just will not hire her because she is not that young, hot waitress she used to be. Other places, it is just the waiting game to see if she gets a call back. That has been slowed due to the holiday.

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Old Post 11-23-12 09:21 PM
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bbaffert
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Tenn -3 or 4
Pitt -1

I see you can get Tenn at -3 somewhere but -4 is fine.

If you only play one game play TENN. It is a VERY solid play.

All the reasons are above, I just wanted to bump this one more time in case anyone that follows missed it or it helps someone.

Also, Minnesota is not worth the risk. Better to root for the Bears and hope we can catch a better line next week.

goodnight all, thanks for the best day this family has had in a while, baby has a cold so she has worn me the heck out the last couple days. In bed by 8pm, I never thought I would do that but ...

Old Post 11-25-12 01:26 AM
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Addictedninja


Registered: Nov 2011
Posts: 166

Thoughts on a 6 point teaser with these 2? I know u like steelers -1 but they are -2 now. Thoughts on Browns +8 and Titans +2? Thanks for your help

Old Post 11-25-12 01:49 PM
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Addictedninja


Registered: Nov 2011
Posts: 166

Actually my book has them at -1 but at -125 juice. Ugh

Old Post 11-25-12 01:52 PM
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Addictedninja


Registered: Nov 2011
Posts: 166

Don't understand why

Line on my book just took the titans down from -4 to -3. So I went a head and bet big on them. Good luck and Thanks!

Old Post 11-25-12 03:35 PM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

Sorry Guys

Now
14-5 NFL
2-0 shed bets
1-0 CFB

Not much to say, just wanted to keep my record straight. Under these circumstances, I probably would take the same sides if they played again. They were solid, thought out plays but the teams decided differently.

Early thoughts for next week
Houston -4.5 at Tenn
Seems very low but Texans have some injuries. Still, those extra days of rest for the Texans are going to be nice. Not ready to call it yet but if Joseph plays it is all Texans.

CHI/Seattle
Looking forward to this line. There should be solid value in Seattle here.

Old Post 11-26-12 06:14 PM
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doubled1511
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Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3231

be careful

seattle pretty bad on the road and if both of those cb are out.....

Old Post 11-26-12 07:35 PM
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bbaffert
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Posts: 7067

DD

Glad the Bears did well yesterday.

I guess we just have to see if the Sea CBs are in or out before even thinking about this one too hard.

Old Post 11-26-12 09:36 PM
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