After over an hour of research I found a trend out and since you have made so much money for you this year I wanted to share this with you .

I went back to 2002 and found 13 games where a team had their playoff position locked up and had nothing to play for and were week 17 underdogs. In those games the favorites were 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS. The only time the team that had nothing to play for won was the 04 steelers whose backups were a decent Tommy Maddox and Willie Parker.

Another interesting thing is that the favoref worse team scored at least 30 points in 10 of those 13 games. The playoff bound teams play none of their d line at all cause that's the position which gets hurt the most and they get scored heavily upon.

So what does all this mean?

Bet on the bills, the panthers, the jets and the texans! Also, bet on the over in all of those games!

Thanks for this

Will look further

BOL

i like your reasoning will have a little wager on these

You said it, look at those lines.

Buf -9 ov Ind
Jets -10 ov Cin
Hou -9 ov NE
Car ?

where can you find the lines from further back than 06-07 seasons? Wagerline and espn both only go back 3 years. From what I found though, the last 3 games went UNDER, and the 1 game that qualified from the 06-07 season went OVER. But out of the 4 games I can see, all won SU and all covered spread with the exception of Minnesota against the Giants last year, but Minnesota still won SU

covers goes back into the 90's for most sports.

Looks like a great 4 team teaser play?

where have you been? missed you in baseball this year & don't be such a stranger. thanks for these nuggets
GL

Wagerline = Covers

If you can find those past odds/results on covers or any other site I would be grateful for someone pointing me in that direction

deleted post

This is the query, may not be exact to your trend, but should be similar.

week=17 and wins>=10 and o:wins<=7 and line>0

SU: 2-9-0 (-9.1) Teaser Records
ATS: 2-9-0 (-5.7) avg line: 3.4 +6: 5-6-0 (45.5%) +10: 9-2-0 (81.8%) +13: 9-2-0 (81.8%)
O/U: 5-5-1 (1.0) avg total: 40.6 +6: 7-4-0 (63.6%) +10: 7-3-1 (70.0%) +13: 9-2-0 (81.8%)

becareful with NE as they will be possibly be playing for seeding

You can find old lines through statfox. I'll post up all the research in a couple hours.

Secondly, why would new England care about seeding enough to risk hurting their guys? They will have home field in first game and road the second.

Msudogs, thanks for the kind words. I check out the forum for info but I think I got 4 posts in a row wrong so I didn't want to lose people money so I took a break from posting.

I'll put up the numbers to back this up soon

All of the following teams entered week 17 clinched for playoffs and not playing for home field going back to 2002.

2002

San Francisco- +3 Loss 31-20

2004

philly +4 Loss 38-10

Pitt +9.5 Win 29-24

2005

chicago +5.5 loss 34-10

Seattle +6 Push(loss SU) 23-17

Cinci +10.5 loss 37-3

2006

New Orleans +3 loss 31-21

2007

Dallas +9 Loss 27-6

Tampa Bay +3 loss 31-23

Indy +4.5 Loss 16-10

Jax +7 Loss 42-28

2008

NYG +7 Loss SU Win ATS 20-19



The only two covers were Pitt in 2004 and the Giants last year.

The only straight up win was Pittsburgh as I mentioned earlier.

Also. Take note of the score each time the favorite won. The average score in that situation was 32.

We arrive at this:

Bills -8.5 and OVER 33 for the game total
(not neccessarily a parlay, but worthwhile to do so)

Carolina -7.5 (no total available but take the over regardless)

Houston -8 and OVER 46 (like this total a little less because all we know is houston will score at least 30)

Jets -10 and the OVER 35

This is my favorite because cinci will not be playing their D-line while the jets have probably the best O line in football. Thomas Jones will have a huge day.

Also the Jets blitz 58% of the time and with JT O Sullivan playing and the backup O-line playing for the bengals I expect at least 4 turnovers. I am a niners fan and am WELL AWARE of Mr. JT' O Sullivan or as we called him J. turnover Sullivan

This is a great thread Mr. Bonds. I have been thinking about this but had no idea how good it really was.

Thanks for sharing.

FWIW...

Lot of strong trends on the Jets under as with the Bills.

Buffalo is looking at strong winds tomorrow as well.

san diego would qualify also.

actually washington since the chargers have the 2 seed locked in.

The NFL will ask the competition committee to review integrity-of-game and competitive-balance concerns with clinching playoff teams that choose to rest starters at the end of the season.

"This is an issue that we have reviewed in the past. The position of the competition committee, and affirmed by the clubs, when it was reviewed in 2005 was that 'a team that has clinched its division title has earned the right to rest its starters for the postseason, and that preparing for the postseason is just as important as protecting some other team's playoff opportunity.' That is the current policy," league spokesman Greg Aiello said.

"We are aware of the fan reaction and that is a factor to be considered," he continued. "Some teams that have everything clinched, like the Giants and Patriots two years ago, choose to play all out to continue or gain momentum for the playoffs. We expect to continue to review this issue."

The Colts' recent 29-15 loss to the New York Jets, which ended their shot at an undefeated season, didn't sit well with Colts fans and NFL purists.

The Colts (14-1) had nothing significant to play for, having clinched their eighth straight playoff berth in late November. In a controversial decision, coach Jim Caldwell chose to sit quarterback Peyton Manning and numerous starters for most of the second half.

The Jets' win boosted the playoff chances for New York, which can clinch a postseason spot with a victory Sunday against the Bengals. Cincinnati, which has clinched the AFC North, also might sit some of its key players in the game.

Information from ESPN senior NFL analyst Chris Mortensen and The Associated Press was used in this report.

The reason Washington doesn't count is because San Diego is the favorite. The trend only counts towards the locked team that is a dog.