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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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Fading Home 'Dogs
February 4, 2013
RUSTY HOME 'DOGS
Generally speaking, the first rule most good handicappers look to apply is ferreting out live underdogs that have a realistic shot at winning the game. That’s because three things can happen when you bet on an underdog – and two of them are good (my pet handicapping philosophy).
There are, however, certain 'dogs that can bite the hand that feeds them if they are not conditioned to win. For the most part they are either bad teams with faulty defenses or fatigued to the point where their stats simply don’t matter.
On the opposite end of fatigue are teams who become a bit too rusty due to an excessive amount of time off. This rule especially holds true to teams in College Basketball.
We call them the Rust Brigade. That’s because…
College Hoops Home 'Dogs with 7 Or More Days Of Rest Turn to Rust
Too much rest tends to make teams lethargic.
That’s confirmed by the fact that Division-1 College Basketball teams playing at home as conference dogs with 7 or more days of rest during the regular season are 66-99-3 ATS since 1990.
That’s a dismal 40.7% ATS, making these teams prime ‘Play Against’ material.
Worse…
Rusty Home 'Dogs Off back-To-Back Losses Simply Don’t Care
Lethargic home 'dogs playing poorly continue to play badly.
Once again, the numbers do not lie. College Basketball teams playing off back-to-back losses at conference home as dogs with 7 or more days of rest during the regular season are 22-43 ATS since 1990.
Put them up against non-fatigued opponents (ones that have at least 3 days of rest) and they dip to 11-34 ATS in this role.
Even worse…
Poor Rusty Home 'Dogs Off Back-To-back Losses Really Disappear
There is nothing worse than a team that knows it’s beat before they take the court.
That is born out by the fact that these rusty home 'dogs with a losing record, playing off back-to-back losses against well-rested (three or more days of rest) conference opponents are just 7-31 ATS since 1990.
Worse, these pacified puppies are a paltry 1-16 ATS in this role from Game Eighteen out!
There you have it. Another solid betting strategy to follow from now until the College Conference Tourneys begin later this month.
Enjoy the games and remember to let sleeping dogs lie.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-06-13 08:38 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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Overrated & Underrated
February 4, 2013
The AP Top 25 Rankings feature great shifts each week, with voters often reacting to short term results. Each week several teams climb up a bit too high based on a soft stretch in the schedule or losses by teams ahead of them in the polls. Other teams can take falls despite losses that are justified through tough scheduling spots and opposition. There are teams that are overrated and underrated each week in the polls; here are three teams in each column this week.
Overrated
Gonzaga (AP #6): Based on many of the top 10 teams picking up losses in recent weeks through grueling major conference schedules, Gonzaga continues to rise in the rankings. The Bulldogs are up to #6 in this week's AP poll with a 21-2 record but the West Coast Conference does not look that strong this season. Gonzaga is 8-0 in league play but road games against the best competition, St. Mary's and BYU, are yet to come. With five wins over Big XII teams there is some weight behind the overall record. The two losses for Gonzaga are a bit surprising however, losing by one at Butler despite Rotnei Clarke not playing and losing early in the year at home against an Illinois team that has since fallen completely off the map. None of the non-conference wins elevate the Bulldogs to being a top 10 caliber squad and winning on the road has not come easily for this team with three road wins against far lesser foes coming by two points or less. This is a team that has not had great recent NCAA Tournament success, losing in the round of 32 each of the last three seasons and lining up a great seed in the tournament has not been a predictor of success for this program with several notable early exits. In 2009 as a #4 seed Gonzaga did make it to the sweet 16 but this program has not defeated a team better than a #6 seed in the NCAA Tournament since 2001. No other team from the West Coast Conference would likely make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team and running into a quality major conference foe in the postseason after two-plus months of lesser match-ups could once again be a problem for this team.
Arizona (AP #7): After a couple of truly awful seasons for the Pac-12 the league looks a bit stronger with some separation at the top this season led by Arizona, Oregon, and UCLA. While the conference looks worthy of at least three NCAA Tournament bids this season and perhaps one or two more depending on how things shake out, the league may not be as substantially improved as it looks. Arizona opened the year 14-0 and wins over Florida and Miami certainly carry serious weight at this point in the season. Both of those wins, as well as other solid wins over Southern Miss and San Diego State came at home however. Arizona seems to be holding its own in conference play but the 7-2 mark is misleading. They lost to both Oregon and UCLA and they have not yet played Stanford or California as the schedule will get more difficult. Narrow wins over Colorado (a game Arizona won on a botched call) and Washington, are not enough to build great credibility. Arizona could end up winning the Pac-12 regular season title but it will be without many impressive wins and the Wildcats will likely enter the Pac-12 Tournament and the NCAA Tournament with an inflated record. Arizona has just four wins against the top 50 teams in the country according to the Sagarin ratings and the one-point win over Florida at home in a game they trailed most of the way is boosting the numbers for the Wildcats too significantly.
Kansas State (AP #13): Under Bruce Weber the Wildcats have moved to 17-4 on the season and this is another team getting too much benefit from beating Florida in the non-conference season. Right before Christmas the Wildcats stunned the Gators in Kansas City, getting a big edge at the foul line and holding on after a great start to the game while catching the Gators in a tough travel spot. Take away that win and there is nothing left holding up the resume for Kansas State. They played Gonzaga and Michigan in non-conference play but lost badly in both games and nothing so far in the Big XII season has suggested this is an elite team. Kansas State played a solid game against Kansas at home but still lost and there are question marks with the resume for the Jayhawks as well despite the great record for Kansas leading Big XII. Sweeping Oklahoma keeps Kansas State towards the top of the league but the Wildcats have to play Baylor twice as well as facing Kansas again and second meetings with Oklahoma State and Iowa State. The closing schedule is tough for Kansas State and while the big win over Florida likely locks Kansas State into the NCAA Tournament, this is a team that could be out of the top 25 by mid-February and could fall closer to the bubble by season's end. Kansas State is just 4-4 against the top 50 and 2-3 vs. the top 25 and the Wildcats will have a hard time staying near top of the Big XII standings with the schedule ahead.
Underrated
Louisville (AP #11): Every team goes through some ups and downs over the course of the season and Louisville got caught with three straight losses, going from being the #1 team in polls to outside of the top 10. With wins over Pittsburgh and Marquette the Cardinals appear to be back on track and that difficult stretch may provide the challenge that this team needs to make a run back to the Final Four. Louisville did not get a lot done in non-conference play, losing narrowly in the big game with Duke and having wins over Missouri, Memphis, and Kentucky lose some luster as those teams have faded from the national conversation. Big East play has taken its toll but the schedule the rest of the way is very favorable and the Cardinals still look like a championship contender. Louisville will get a chance to face Syracuse again and they do play Notre Dame twice, but remaining difficult games with St. John's and Cincinnati will be at home. Statistically Louisville has some of the best efficiency numbers in the nation and this is a veteran team that is tournament tested. This team should be back in the top 10 in the coming weeks and this is a team that could still get back in the picture for a #1 seed in the Big Dance. The remaining schedule is favorable and there may be some short term value on Louisville as they are not getting the respect they had a few weeks ago.
Minnesota (AP #18): The Gophers went through a difficult four-game losing streak in mid-January but this is a formidable team that can make noise in March. The Big Ten is obviously very tough this season and with four conference losses the Gophers are likely out of the running for a conference championship but this team has been penalized too severely in the polls for the losing streak. The losses came having to play Indiana and Michigan in back-to-back big games, setting up the letdown spot at Northwestern, and then losing in a one-point game at Wisconsin. Minnesota has rebounded with home wins over Nebraska and Iowa and while there are challenging games ahead, this is a team capable of getting on a great late season run. Minnesota still has to play at Michigan State and at Ohio State but they will draw a favorable closing schedule in the final two weeks. With the schedule ahead it will not be easy for Minnesota to climb significantly higher in the polls but this Gophers team will have battled through one of the toughest schedules in the nation by season's end. Minnesota has picked up impressive wins away from home this season and the opportunity for more marquee wins will be available in the Big Ten schedule with home games against Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana in February. Minnesota is also capable of winning on the road and they will have big opportunities against Michigan State and Ohio State coming up, two teams that might be sitting a little too high in the standings with back-loaded conference schedules.
Pittsburgh (AP #23): The Panthers are starting to get a little attention after beating Syracuse last weekend but this is a team with a misleading 6-4 Big East mark. The lone loss in non-conference play came by five points against Michigan in New York and four conference losses have come by a combined total of 23 points, with one of those losses in overtime. Games with Louisville, Syracuse, and Georgetown are out of the way as the closing schedule for the Panthers in the Big East is very favorable and this is a team that has shown improvement as the season has gone on. By the Sagarin or the Pomeroy rankings, Pittsburgh is a top 10 team despite just barely cracking the AP poll this week and while the NCAA Tournament has not often treated the Panthers well, this is a team to keep an eye on. Pittsburgh did not pick up any notable wins in the non-conference schedule so the Panthers have some work to do to jump off the bubble but among the group of teams in the middle-of-the-pack in the Big East, counting teams like Marquette, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Georgetown, and St. John's, Pittsburgh may have the highest ceiling. After missing the NCAA Tournament last season this Panthers team is coming together at the right time and this will be a team no one will want to draw in the Big East tournament or in a 7-10 or 8-9 match-up in the Big Dance.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-06-13 08:41 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Wednesday, February 6
-- Creighton made 11-22 from arc, beat Indiana State 79-66 (-14) Jan 5, game that was tied with 10:00 left; Bluejays won last four series games, with three wins by 13+ points- they've won last three games overall, by 30-14-17 points, are 3-2 on MVC road, winning by 7-22-30. Sycamores are 5-0 at home in Valley; three of their last four games were decided by 3 or less points. MVC home underdogs are 14-6 vs spread.
-- Butler split last four games after 13-game win streak ended; they are 3-0 at home in A-16, winning by 15-12-7 points; four of their last seven wins are by 7 or less points. A-16 double digit home favorites are 3-9 vs spread. St Bonaventure won its last two road games, at Temple/St Joe's; they've won three of last four games, but are 2-8 vs teams in top 100. Only one of Bonnies' four A-16 losses was by more than 10 points.
-- Minnesota made 60% inside arc, outscored Michigan State 13-2 from foul line in 76-63 home win over Spartans Dec 31, second Minnesota win in last 14 series games. Gophers lost last eight visits here, by 1-14-14-5-12-1-5-5 points. State is 4-0 at home in league, winning by 23-10-5-3 points- their last four games were all decided by 5 or less points. Big Dozen home favorites of 6 or less points are 8-5 vs spread.
-- Home side is 13-1 in last 14 Baylor-Oklahoma State games; Bears lost eight of last nine visits here, losing by 33-29-3-4-10-10-11 points, but in LY's visit, they won 64-60, are now 3-0 in last three series games. Big X home favorites are 15-11 vs spread. State won last three games, by 14-2-5 points, scoring 81 ppg- they're 4-0 at home in Big X, with three wins by 14+ points. Baylor lost last two games, allowing 74-79 points.
-- St John's won five of last six games, winning last three at home by 4-4-5 points; #99 Red Storm is 3-4 vs top 100 teams. UConn is 14-0 vs teams ranked lower than #40; they won last three games, last two in OT. Huskies are 8-2 in last 10 games vs St John's, losing last two series tilts here, by 22-17 points. Big East home teams are 2-18 vs spread if number is 5 or less points. UConn split its four Big East road games.
-- Southern Miss better not look ahead to Memphis game this weekend; Eagles won last eight games, are 4-0 on C-USA road, winning by 23-4-3-4 points. Home team won seven of last nine series games; USM's 78-65 win here LY was its first in last four visits to Orlando- they're 5-1 in last six series games, with four wins by 10+ points. C-USA home underdogs are 12-6 vs spread if number is 5 or less points.
-- Cincinnati won five of last six games; seven of its last eight were won by 8 or less points. Bearcats are 4-1 on Big East road, with only loss by a hoop at Syracuse; they won last three games vs Providence by 12-4-15 points. Friars are 1-4 at home in league, losing by 10-6-4-3 points; they are 3-9 in last 12 games overall, with four of last five decided by four or less points. Big East home underdogs of 6 or less points are 2-8.
-- Alabama won six of its last seven games, with last four wins by 4 or less points; Tide won its last five games vs Auburn, winning by 10-18 in last two visits here. Bama allowed 51.8 ppg in last six games; they're 2-2 on SEC road, losing at Tennessee/Mizzou. SEC home underdogs of 7 or less points are 7-3 vs spread. Auburn lost last six games, last five by 8+ points; they've lost two of three SEC home tilts (beat LSU).
-- Air Force is 5-2 in MWC, winning last five games; they've lost 12 in a row to New Mexico, losing their last five visits to Pit by 15-25-3-5-30 points. Lobos won six of last seven games, won all four MWC games at home, winning by 5-22-5-13 points. MWC home favorites of 7+ points are 6-3 vs spread. Falcons are 1-2 on road, losing by 5-39 points, with a win at Wyoming. Lobos better not look ahead to UNLV game Saturday.
-- Iowa raced out to 32-12 lead, held on for 70-66 win over Wisconsin at home Jan 19, outscoring Badgers 24-8 from charity stripe. Iowa won its last three series games, but win in Madison LY ended 6-game skid here, with losses by 3-14-12-13-17-27 points. Big Dozen home favorites of 7+ points are 8-11 vs spread. Badgers are 2-3 in last five games but are 3-1 at home in Big Dozen play, winning by 9-1-23 points.
-- Colorado State won its last three games, by 11-20-19 points; they are 1-2 on MWC road, winning by 11 in Fresno. Nevada lost six of its last eight games; they're 1-2 at home in MWC, losing by 11-21 points, with win over Boise. Five of State's last six games stayed under total. Eight of last nine Nevada games were decided by 10+ points. MWC home dogs are 5-3 against the spread so far this season.
-- UNLV lost three of four MWC road games, with only win at Viejas by 7; four of its seven league games were decided by exactly five points. Rebels have revenge at home with New Mexico Saturday. Fresno State is 2-10 in last dozen games; they're 1-3 at home in MWC, losing by 3-7-11 points. Three of last four Fresno State games went over the total. MWC home underdogs are 5-3 against the spread.
-- Stanford won its last three games, scoring 81.3 ppg, but they're 0-6 in last six games vs Arizona, losing by 14-8-10 points in last three visits to Tucson. Cardinal is 1-3 on Pac-12 road, losing by 2-8-21 points. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 1-5 vs spread. Arizona won its last three games, by 24-4-14 points; four of its last five wins are by 10+ points. Wildcats are 3-1 at home in conference, with wins by 9-3-24.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-06-13 08:46 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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NCAAB
Wednesday, February 6
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Study group: Wednesday’s Top 25 NCB betting notes
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(18) Minnesota at (8) Michigan State (-2.5)
Minnesota started Michigan State’s Big Ten schedule with a loss on New Year’s Eve, but the Spartans have not let that defeat derail their hopes of winning the nation’s toughest conference. Minnesota shot 56.6 percent in beating Michigan State 76-63 in Minneapolis on Dec. 31, posting its first regular-season triumph over the Spartans since 2006. Michigan State has won 13 of the past 16 matchups and has won seven of eight overall since that defeat, but Minnesota is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games.
Baylor at (24) Oklahoma State (5.5)
The Bears beat the Cowboys 64-54 when the teams last met Jan. 21 in Waco and they have won eight of the last 12 meetings. Oklahoma State has won three consecutive games since losing to Baylor and is coming off an 85-80 victory at then-No. 1 (now No. 5) Kansas on Saturday. Baylor has a two-game losing streak and is coming off a 79-71 setback at Iowa State on Saturday. The Bears are second in the Big 12 in scoring offense (75.8) and rebounding (39.2), and seventh in scoring defense (63.8). The Cowboys, who lead the Big 12 in free-throw percentage (.751), are fourth in both scoring offense (71.8) and scoring defense (60.2). The Bears are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings in Oklahoma State.
(17) Cincinnati at Providence (+3.5)
Two of the top scorers in the Big East will go head-to-head, when Sean Kilpatrick and Cincinnati visit Bryce Cotton and Providence. Kilpatrick is not quite at Cotton’s level, but he has had more support from his teammates as the Bearcats have taken two straight and five of their last six. The Friars snapped a three-game slide with a win at Villanova on Saturday and have fallen just short in several other Big East contests. The Friars are 1-4 at home against conference teams and will face three ranked opponents in the next four games as they try to keep from falling below .500. The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.
St. Bonaventure at (14) Butler (-11.5)
Butler has been a factor in its inaugural season in the Atlantic 10 Conference and will move into a first-place tie with a victory over visiting St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies have won three of their last four games, including impressive victories at Temple and Saint Joseph's. St. Bonaventure figures to have a tougher time at historic Hinkle Fieldhouse, though, where the Bulldogs are 11-0 this season. The Bonnies will also have to deal with senior guard Rotnei Clarke, who has led Butler in scoring in three consecutive games since missing three contests because of a neck injury. St. Bonaventure is 9-57 all-time against ranked teams and 0-28 on the road. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss.
(13) Creighton at Indiana State (+5.5)
Creighton has won three straight games by at least 14 points against opponents with losing conference records since dropping two in a row on the road. The Sycamores, one of the four Missouri Valley teams with a winning conference record, own three victories against opponents ranked in this week’s coaches’ poll despite last month’s loss at Creighton. Indiana State is coming off a 74-71 overtime loss at Drake – the same team that handed Creighton its last loss – but is 8-1 at home. While the Bluejays have won four straight overall in this series, they are 1-2 over their last three in Terre Haute, Ind. – games that have been decided by a total of nine points. The Sycamores are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
(12) Louisville at Rutgers (+10.5)
Three weeks ago, Louisville dominated its first four conference games and was the nation's top-ranked team. A three-game losing streak sent them tumbling out of the top 10 but on Sunday, the Cardinals seemed to regain their dominance in a 71-50 victory over Marquette and they will be aiming for their third straight win when they visit Rutgers. After winning three of its first five conference games, Rutgers has dropped four straight and has been outscored by a 122-80 margin after halftime in its last three games, including 40-24 in last Wednesday's 62-54 loss at Cincinnati. The Cardinals 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
(5) Kansas at TCU (+19.5)
Kansas finds itself in rebound mode for the first time since mid-November after having its NCAA-best 18-game winning streak snapped at home by Oklahoma State, 85-80, on Saturday. The Jayhawks are 4-0 on the road in Big 12 play but only one - a 60-46 win at Texas Tech - has been by double digits. The other three -- at Texas (64-59), at Kansas State (59-55) and at West Virginia (61-56) -- have been by five points or less. TCU is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.
Mississippi State at (23) Mississippi (-20)
Mississippi looks to get back on track and snap a two-game losing streak when it hosts in-state rival Mississippi State. The Rebels had won nine straight before dropping consecutive games to Kentucky and Florida over the last week, dropping Ole Miss into a second-place tie in the SEC. The Bulldogs have dropped six straight after starting 2-0 in league play, showing the team's youth and inexperience. Mississippi is scoring 73 points a game in SEC games, which is bad news for Mississippi State, which is allowing 74.8 points a game during its current losing skid. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Stanford at (7) Arizona (-10)
Arizona looks to extend its three-game winning streak against surging Stanford. Arizona is coming off a sweep of the Washington schools last week, and its defense has limited the opposition to 25.4 percent from 3-point range over the last four games. Arizona has won 12 of the last 16 games against Stanford, and the Wildcats are 28-8 in Tucson. The Cardinal have won five of their last seven after starting league play 0-2. Stanford still trails the Pac-12 in field goal shooting at 41.1 percent, but the Cardinal have shot 57.4 percent from beyond the arc in their last three games. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.
Air Force at (16) New Mexico (-11.5)
New Mexico will try to hold onto sole possession of first-place in the Mountain West Conference when it hosts Air Force. The Falcons have won five straight following their 70-67 upset Saturday against then-No. 20 San Diego State. Don’t anticipate the Lobos will take Air Force lightly. New Mexico lost by 21 points to San Diego State on Jan. 26 - the same team the Falcons toppled last weekend. Air Force is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.
Boise State at (25) San Diego State (-9)
San Diego State was supposed to be head of the class in the Mountain West Conference. Instead, the Aztecs need a victory over Boise State to avoid being at .500 at the midway point of the conference slate. The Broncos have upset two ranked teams on the road this season, beating Creighton in November and winning at Wyoming last month. Boise State has already matched last season’s conference victory total, but the Broncos have lost their last three Mountain West road games by an average of 15.7 points. San Diego State has won 58 of its last 63 home games and has a 9-1 mark this season. The Aztecs allow only 59.3 points per game.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-06-13 08:49 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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Thursday's Tips
February 7, 2013
**North Carolina State at Duke**
--Most books opened Duke (19-2 straight up, 12-9 against the spread) as a 10.5-point favorite. As of early this afternoon, most spots had the Blue Devils favored by 11 with a total of 150.5 or 151. Bettors can take the Wolfpack on the money line for a plus-500 payout (risk $100 to win $500).
--Mike Krzyzewski’s team has posted a 6-6 spread record in 12 previous games as a double-digit favorite. The Blue Devils are unbeaten in 11 home games, compiling a 5-6 spread record at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
--Duke is second in the ACC standings, 2.5 games behind the league-leading Miami Hurricanes. The Blue Devils have won three straight games since getting blasted by a 90-63 count at Miami on Jan. 23. They have collected wins vs. Maryland (84-64), at Wake Forest (75-70) and at FSU (79-60).
--North Carolina St. (16-6 SU, 11-9 ATS) is tied with FSU for fifth in the ACC standings with a 5-4 record. The Wolfpack has lost four of its last six games by seven combined points. Mark Gottfried’s team dropped a 79-78 decision at home to Miami in Saturday’s pick ‘em affair. The Hurricanes finished the game on an 8-2 run capped by Reggie Johnson’s tip-in of a Shane Larkin miss with less than one second to play. C.J. Leslie had 18 points and 12 rebounds in the losing effort.
--North Carolina St. junior guard Lorenzo Brown is ‘doubtful’ at Duke due to an ankle injury that caused him to miss Saturday’s loss to Miami. Brown averages 12.7 points, 6.9 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game.
--Duke senior forward Ryan Kelly remains ‘out’ with a foot injury. Kelly averages 13.4 points and 5.4 rebounds per game.
--N.C. St. owns a 3-1 spread record in four games as an underdog this year.
--The ‘over’ is 10-7 overall for the Wolfpack, 3-2 in five true road assignments.
--The ‘over’ is 11-9 overall for Duke, but the ‘under’ is 6-4 in its home games with a total.
--The ‘over’ is 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these ACC adversaries.
--This game is a part of ESPN's Full-Court Package (722 on DirecTV) and will tip at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
**Colorado at Oregon**
--Most books opened Oregon (18-4 SU, 9-11 ATS) as a six-point favorite with a total of 136. As of early this afternoon, the Ducks were 6.5-point 'chalk' with the total slightly increased to 136.5. Gamblers can take the Buffaloes to win outright for a plus-250 return.
--Colorado (14-7 SU, 11-8 ATS) had won three in a row both SU and ATS until suffering a 58-55 loss Saturday at Utah as a five-point road favorite. Spencer Dinwiddie scored a game-high 18 points for the Buffs, while Andre Roberson produced 10 points, 12 rebounds, four steals and two blocked shots.
--Dana Altman’s squad is unbeaten in 14 home games with a 6-6 spread record. Oregon has lost back-to-back games since winning nine straight. The Ducks are mired in a 1-6 ATS slide. They lost 58-54 at Cal as 1 ½-point underdogs. Tony Woods had 14 points and eight rebounds in defeat.
--Colorado has been an underdog six times, going 3-3 ATS with wins over Baylor on a neutral court and at Washington St.
--Oregon freshman guard Dominic Artis (10.2 PPG) remains 'out' with a foot injury.
--Oregon is 2-4 ATS as a single-digit favorite.
--The 'under' is 10-4 overall for Oregon, 5-1 in its home games and 8-2 in its last 10 outings (regardless of venue).
--The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for the Buffs, 6-2 in their last eight games.
--Tip-off is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.
**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**
--TCU pulled one of the biggest upsets we’ve seen all season Wednesday night, stunning Kansas 62-55 as a 17-point home underdog. Vegas books didn’t even bother to post a money line and only a few offshore books did so. 5Dimes had the Horned Frogs with 25/1 odds to win outright.
--Yes, the SEC is horrible this year but that can be a good thing for sharp bettors. Without many elite scorers, especially among the bottom rung of the conference, 'unders' galore have been cashing. Three teams in particular are among the nation's best 'under' squads: Alabama (13-3), Texas A&M (11-3) and Vanderbilt (13-4).
--If Iowa comes up short in its bid to get to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2006, it will look back on this week as its demise. The Hawkeyes had great chances to win in back-to-back losses at Minnesota and at Wisconsin. The Badgers slipped past the Hawks last night in double overtime.
--Florida power forward Will Yeguete tweeted late last night: “I can’t believe this is happening. This must be a nightmare.” Yeguete had an MRI on his injured knee Wednesday. If Yeguete is indeed out for a significant period of time, this will be a crushing blow to Florida’s national-title hopes.
--Keith Appling suffered an injured shoulder for Michigan St. in its home win over Minnesota last night.
--Speaking of the Gophers, they are sliding fast. Tubby Smith’s squad has lost five of its last seven games.
--Indiana St. captured a monster win for its at-large hopes last night, blasting Creighton 76-57 as a five-point home underdog. The Sycamores now have neutral-court wins over Miami and Ole Miss, in addition to a win at Wichita St. (by double digits!) and last night’s triumph over the Bluejays. They also took New Mexico to overtime.
--Georgia has won five of its last six games with the only loss coming against Florida. The Bulldogs won at Tennessee last night as seven-point underdogs, hooking up money-line backers with a plus-260 return (risk $100 to win $260). Mark Fox clearly doesn’t want to lose his job in Athens.
--Coach of the Year Candidates:
1-Jim Larranaga (Miami)
2-Brad Stevens (Butler)
3-Dana Altman (Oregon)
4-Shaka Smart (VCU)
5-Greg Lansing (Indiana St.)
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-07-13 08:53 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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NCAAB
Thursday, February 7
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Study group: Thursday’s Top 25 NCB betting notes
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(1) Indiana at Illinois (+7.5)
Indiana is back atop the national rankings and seeks its sixth straight victory when it visits floundering Illinois. Illinois has lost three straight games and six of seven and is a disappointing 10th in the 12-team league. The Fighting Illini have allowed an average of 76 points during the three-game skid. In Big Ten games, Illinois ranks last in the conference in both scoring defense (69.8) and field-goal percentage (45.3). The Hoosiers average a conference-best 75.8 in Big Ten play and rank second by making 47 percent of their shots. Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five Thursday games.
(20) Missouri at Texas A&M (+3.5)
Missouri will try to solve its road woes when the 20th-ranked Tigers visit Texas A&M for the former Big 12 rivals' first meeting as SEC opponents. The Tigers have been outstanding at home, but they are 0-4 on the road and have lost their first three conference road games. The Aggies are trying to avoid a fourth consecutive home loss after a 72-68 overtime defeat to Kentucky on Saturday. Texas A&M has scored 55 points or less in five of its past six games and is 0-4 ATS in its last four Thursday contests.
NC State at (4) Duke (-10.5)
North Carolina State suffered back-to-back losses last week and has lost four of six since knocking off then-No. 1 Duke at home on Jan. 12. NC State has suffered its last four losses by a total of seven points but has the type of inside strength to counter Mason Plumlee and Duke. The Blue Devils are connecting at a 41.1 percent clip from beyond the arc and went 11-of-18 from 3-point range in Saturday’s 79-60 win at Florida State. NC State’s defense holds opponents to 28.7 percent from beyond the arc - best in the ACC. Three-point shooting was a big part of the first meeting, when the Blue Devils struggled to 6-of-20 from beyond the arc. Duke is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following an ATS win.
Colorado at (19) Oregon (-5.5)
The Ducks look to get back on the winning track when they host Colorado at the Knight Arena, where they've won 20 straight games. Overall, Colorado hasn't won at Oregon, regardless of the arena, in 58 years. The Ducks have lost two of three since point guard Dominic Artis went down with a foot injury. Coach Dana Altman feels Artis will return soon but he is questionable for this week's action. Oregon is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.
Pepperdine at (6) Gonzaga (-22.5)
Gonzaga looks to extend its winning streak to five when the Bulldogs host a Pepperdine team that’s fallen out of the conference race with three straight losses. Gonzaga has won 38 of the last 43 games against the Waves, including 23 in a row. The Bulldogs will again be heavy favorites against Pepperdine, which has lost 14 straight in Spokane. Eight of the 11 Pepperdine players who will dress against Gonzaga are freshmen or sophomores. The Waves are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-07-13 09:09 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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NCAAB
Dunkel
Dartmouth at Columbia
The Lions look to bounce back from their 72-66 loss at Princeton and build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games following a SU defeat. Columbia is the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Columbia (-11). Here are all of today's games.
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 8
Game 825-826: Yale at Pennsylvania (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 48.343; Pennsylvania 48.091
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Pennsylvania by 1
Dunkel Pick: Yale (+1)
Game 827-828: Brown at Princeton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brown 48.690; Princeton 63.527
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 15
Vegas Line: Princeton by 12
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (-12)
Game 829-830: Dartmouth at Columbia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 42.869; Columbia 55.956
Dunkel Line: Columbia by 13
Vegas Line: Columbia by 11
Dunkel Pick: Columbia (-11)
Game 831-832: Harvard at Cornell (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 58.405; Cornell 52.428
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 6
Vegas Line: Harvard by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-4 1/2)
Game 833-834: Utah State at San Jose State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 54.292; San Jose State 49.090
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 5
Vegas Line: Utah State by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+6 1/2)
Game 835-836: Siena at Loyola-MD (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 45.923; Loyola-MD 59.740
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 14; 129
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 12 1/2; 124
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-12 1/2); Over
Game 841-842: NC-Asheville at VMI (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Asheville 54.687; VMI 48.014
Dunkel Line: NC-Asheville by 6 1/2; 156
Vegas Line: NC-Asheville by 4; 153 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC-Asheville (-4); Over
NCAAB
Long Sheet
Friday, February 8
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YALE (7 - 14) at PENNSYLVANIA (4 - 16) - 2/8/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
YALE is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games on Friday nights since 1997.
YALE is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 71-101 ATS (-40.1 Units) in all home games since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 71-101 ATS (-40.1 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 29-51 ATS (-27.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 19-39 ATS (-23.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
PENNSYLVANIA is 3-1 against the spread versus YALE over the last 3 seasons
PENNSYLVANIA is 3-1 straight up against YALE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BROWN (8 - 10) at PRINCETON (10 - 7) - 2/8/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PRINCETON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons.
PRINCETON is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
PRINCETON is 3-1 against the spread versus BROWN over the last 3 seasons
PRINCETON is 3-1 straight up against BROWN over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DARTMOUTH (5 - 13) at COLUMBIA (9 - 9) - 2/8/2013, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DARTMOUTH is 3-1 against the spread versus COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
COLUMBIA is 4-0 straight up against DARTMOUTH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HARVARD (12 - 6) at CORNELL (10 - 11) - 2/8/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HARVARD is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1997.
HARVARD is 80-112 ATS (-43.2 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
HARVARD is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
CORNELL is 101-74 ATS (+19.6 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
CORNELL is 2-2 against the spread versus HARVARD over the last 3 seasons
HARVARD is 4-0 straight up against CORNELL over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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UTAH ST (16 - 5) at SAN JOSE ST (9 - 13) - 2/8/2013, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE ST is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN JOSE ST is 3-3 against the spread versus UTAH ST over the last 3 seasons
UTAH ST is 6-0 straight up against SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SIENA (6 - 17) at LOYOLA-MD (16 - 8) - 2/8/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SIENA is 19-32 ATS (-16.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SIENA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOYOLA-MD is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
LOYOLA-MD is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
LOYOLA-MD is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
SIENA is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 51-79 ATS (-35.9 Units) in all home games since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 51-79 ATS (-35.9 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in a home game where the total is 120 to 129.5 since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 44-69 ATS (-31.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) in home games in February games since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 9-26 ATS (-19.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
LOYOLA-MD is 4-1 against the spread versus SIENA over the last 3 seasons
LOYOLA-MD is 4-1 straight up against SIENA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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UNC-ASHEVILLE (14 - 10) at VMI (11 - 10) - 2/8/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UNC-ASHEVILLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UNC-ASHEVILLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UNC-ASHEVILLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
VMI is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
UNC-ASHEVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus VMI over the last 3 seasons
UNC-ASHEVILLE is 4-1 straight up against VMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NCAAB
Top 25 Short Sheet
Friday, February 8
** No Top 25 Games Scheduled for Friday **
NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Friday, February 8
-- Yale lost four of last five games vs Penn, losing eight of last nine trips to Philly, including last three, by 12-8-21 points. Bulldogs lost three of first four Ivy games, losing by 14-3-9 points- they run ball over 22.5% of time. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in Ivy League games where spread is 5 or less points. Quakers turn ball over 24.1% of time; they're 2-3 in last five games, after starting season 2-13, Two bad teams.
-- Brown split its four Ivy games, with both losses in OT; they're 2-5 in last seven games vs Princeton, losing last two visits to Jadwin, by 18-34 points. Tigers won six of last seven games, winning first three Ivy games by 12-17-6 points, allowing 59.3 ppg- they make 38% behind the arc. Brown is shooting just 62.6% from foul line. Ivy League double digit favorites are 1-4 against the spread.
-- Columbia lost its last three games, by 3-4-6 points, but they've won four in row vs Dartmouth, winning last four played here, by 13-12-7-6 points. Lions shoot 36.8% from arc, just 44.1% inside it. Dartmouth is 1-8 on road, with only win at #345 Longwood; Big Green is 2nd-to-last in country in experience. Ivy League double digit favorites are 1-4 against the spread. Seven of Columbia's nine wins are by 11+ points.
-- Harvard won its last four games vs Cornell, with three of four by 11+ points; Crimson won last two visits here, by 13-4 points. Harvard won its first four Ivy games, by 10-5-3-7 points, with two of last three going to OT. Cornell split its first four Ivy games, with two wins by total of five points, losses by 9-17. Ivy League home underdogs are 3-1 against the spread. Cornell turns ball over 21% of the time, not good.
-- Utah State won 16 of last 17 games with San Jose State, winning last four visits here, by 12-16-19-10 points. Aggies won four of six on WAC road, with last three wins on foreign soil by 10+ points. San Jose lost all seven games since suspending leading scorer Kinney (was 9-6 when got was suspended); they're 2-3 at home in WAC, with losses by 9-22-19 points. WAC home underdogs are 3-13 against the spread.
-- Loyola won last four games with Siena by 7-7-11-10 points; Saints won three of last four visits here, but are 4-4 in last eight games overall, after a 2-13 start. Siena turns ball over 23% of time, gets 13.4% of their shots blocked. Greyhounds won last game in double OT after losing two games before that- they're 4-2 at home in MAAC, with wins by 6-16-5-14 points. MAAC double digit home favorites are 5-2 against spread.
-- NC-Asheville beat VMI by 16 LY in Big South tourney final, after it had beaten Keydets by 9-3 points during regular season; Asheville is on 6-game win streak after its 8-10 start- they're 3-2 on Big South road, winning by 14-3-17 points. VMI won three of its four Big South home games, winning by 13-18-19 points- this is Keydets' first home game in 13 days. VMI shoots just 63.3% from foul line, as a team.
NCAAB
Friday, February 8
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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
YALE vs. PENNSYLVANIA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Yale's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pennsylvania
Yale is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pennsylvania is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games
7:00 PM
HARVARD vs. CORNELL
Harvard is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cornell
Harvard is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Cornell is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home
Cornell is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Harvard
7:00 PM
DARTMOUTH vs. COLUMBIA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dartmouth's last 5 games when playing on the road against Columbia
Dartmouth is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Columbia
Columbia is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Dartmouth
Columbia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dartmouth
7:00 PM
BROWN vs. PRINCETON
Brown is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Brown is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Princeton
Princeton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Princeton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
9:00 PM
SIENA vs. LOYOLA
Siena is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Siena is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Loyola
Loyola is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Loyola's last 5 games
10:00 PM
UTAH STATE vs. SAN JOSE STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah State's last 7 games when playing on the road against San Jose State
Utah State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Jose State
San Jose State is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Utah State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State's last 7 games when playing at home against Utah State
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-08-13 11:12 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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Saturday's Showdowns
February 8, 2013
With less than a month to go in this year's men's college basketball regular season, the top teams in the nation's thoughts are quickly turning towards positioning themselves for a long run in the postseason this March. This Saturday's slate offers a number of key matchups that will have an impact on this starting with No. 3 Michigan vs. Wisconsin. The following is a brief handicapping guide for this Big Ten clash along with one for a couple other conference showdowns this Saturday.
Game of the Day
No. 3 Michigan Wolverines vs. Wisconsin Badgers (12 p.m. ESPN)
Michigan rallied from an tough 81-73 loss to No. 1 Indiana last Saturday as a 5 ½-point underdog on the road with a crucial 76-74 overtime victory over No. 10 Ohio State as a seven-point home favorite this past Tuesday. The win over the Buckeyes raised its overall record to 21-2 straight-up to keep its hopes of locking-up one of four No. 1 seeds for this year's NCAA Tournament very much alive. The Wolverines are 3-2-1 against the spread in their last six games and 12-8-1 ATS overall. The total went OVER in both of these games after staying UNDER in their previous three.
Behind Trey Burke (18.1 points) and Tim Hardaway Jr.(16.1 points) Michigan is averaging 77.7 points a game while shooting an impressive 50.3 percent from the field, which just so happens to be the fifth-best percentage in Division I. The Wolverines are holding opponents to 60.2 points while pulling down an average of 36.2 rebounds a game.
The Badgers have gone just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS ever since upsetting Indiana 64-59 as 10 ½-point road underdogs on January 15. Overall, they are 16-7 SU and 12-2 SU at home, but costly to wager on with a 7-14 record ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 games. Heading into this matchup, Wisconsin is coming off back-to-back victories over Illinois and Iowa to improve to 7-3 in conference play. A win on Saturday would go a long way towards keeping the Badgers right in the thick of the Big Ten regular season title race despite the recent slide.
If they are going to have any shot at pulling off the upset as likely home underdogs, it will be behind a defense that is holding opponents to 56.1 points a game and 40 percent shooting from the floor. This is because offensively, the Badgers are averaging 67.5 points a game while shooting 42.7 percent from the field which is a far cry from Michigan's numbers in these categories. Wisconsin has a trio of players scoring in double figures led by Jared Berggren's 11.8 points a game.
The underdog in this matchup is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meeting and the total has stayed UNDER in the last six games. Wisconsin is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings but the series is tied 5-5 ATS.
The Best of the Rest
No. 5 Kansas Jayhawks vs. Oklahoma Sooners (4 p.m. ESPN)
Kansas was on cruise control in the Big 12 with seven-straight conference wins before a disastrous pair of losses not only derailed its run to the No.1 ranking in the nation but possibly a shot at a No.1 seed in the Big Dance. First, the Jayhawks lost to Oklahoma State 85-80 last Saturday as 9 ½-point home favorites. Next, they were humiliated in a 62-55 loss to lowly TCU this past Thursday night as prohibitive 17-point road favorites. Overall Kansas is 19-3 SU but 9-12 ATS after going 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of its last eight games.
The Sooners come into this conference clash looking to avenge an earlier 67-54 loss to Kansas as 12 ½-point road underdogs. Unfortunately they have had some issues of their own with three SU losses in their last four games. Oklahoma is now 14-7 SU on the year and 10-7 ATS. It is 5-4 SU in conference play and 7-2 SU at home this season. The total has gone OVER in five of its last seven games. Romero Osby is a player to watch for the Sooners. He leads the team in scoring with 13.8 points game while hitting 49.2 percent of his shots from the floor. He is also averaging a team-high 6.5 rebounds a game.
No. 11 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 25 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9 p.m. ESPN)
The former No. 1-ranked Cardinals are back on the winning trail. They followed up three-straight losses that sent them tumbling in the national polls with SU victories over Pittsburgh, Marquette and Rutgers to remain just one game in back of Syracuse and the Golden Eagles for first place in the Big East. They are 19-4 SU overall and 7-3 SU in conference play. Louisville has covered in its last two games after going 0-4 ATS in its previous four outings. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of its last nine games.
It has been a bumpy ride in and out of the top 25 this season for Notre Dame. It will probably fall back out of the rankings after suffering a 63-47 thrashing at the hands of Syracuse this past Monday as an 8 ½-point road underdog. The Irish return home for this game where they have gone 13-3 SU but just 5-8 ATS. Overall, they are 18-5 SU and an even 10-10 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of its last nine games. Notre Dame remains one of the better shooting teams in the nation; hitting 48.7 percent of its shots from the field
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-09-13 01:32 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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Saturday Night Action
February 8, 2013
The Saturday evening card in college hoops is filled up with plenty of ranked teams taking the court. We'll take a look at three key contests inside with Big East and Big Ten, as the night concludes with Louisville trying to stay hot at Notre Dame. Elsewhere in the Big East, two squads in the top half of the conference look to improve their tournament status in southern Ohio.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - 6:05 PM EST
These two rivals meet for the second time this season, as the Bearcats grabbed a 70-61 victory at Pittsburgh as six-point 'dogs on New Year's Eve. Since that victory, Mick Cronin's squad has covered just three of their last nine games, while cashing the 'under' eight times in this stretch. UC seeks its first cover in Big East play at Fifth Third Arena in five tries after posting an 0-4 ATS mark in its first four home conference contests.
Pitt failed to cash as 16 ½-point favorites in Monday's home triumph over Seton Hall, 56-46, but the Panthers have now won six of their last seven games. Jamie Dixon's team has put together a 3-2 SU/ATS record on the road inside conference action, as Pitt covered in the away 'dog role at Louisville in a three-point loss on January 28 in their last highway contest.
The Panthers are making just their fourth trip to Cincinnati since 2007, as Pitt has won two of those three visits. The Bearcats have allowed 59 points or less in four straight games, while the Panthers have scored 61 points or less in two of the previous three contests.
Michigan State at Purdue - 7:00 PM EST
The loaded Big Ten could possibly see a pair of teams make the Final Four, as Michigan and Indiana are the cream of the conference crop. However, the Spartans enter Saturday's play at 8-2 inside the conference, tied with the Wolverines and Hoosiers for the top spot in the Big Ten. Tom Izzo's team has won two straight since falling at Indiana, including a 61-50 home triumph over Minnesota on Wednesday as four-point 'chalk.'
Purdue started conference action at 1-2, which included an 84-61 setback in East Lansing as 11 ½-point 'dogs on January 5. Since that loss, the Boilermakers have won five of their last eight games, while snapping a two-game skid on Tuesday with a victory at Penn State. Matt Painter's club attempts to put together a better effort at Mackey Arena after getting wiped out by rival Indiana in their last home game, 97-60 on January 30.
The Boilermakers have been dreadful as underdogs inside the Big Ten, posting a 1-4-1 ATS record. The Spartans are playing their sixth conference road game, but are listed as a favorite for just the second time (2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS), while going 1-3 ATS as 'chalk' away from the Breslin Center.
Louisville at Notre Dame - 9:00 PM EST
The Cardinals have rebounded nicely since a three-game skid by winning three consecutive contests, coming off Wednesday's blowout of Rutgers. Louisville turned a two-point halftime advantage into a 20-point rout to easily cash as 12-point favorites, while limiting the Scarlet Knights to just 32% shooting from the field.
Notre Dame returns home after getting trounced at Syracuse on Monday, 63-47 as 8 ½-point 'dogs. The Irish couldn't figure out the matchup zone, as the Orange held Mike Brey's team to 34% shooting, while Syracuse responded by converting 49% of their field goal attempts. Notre Dame has cashed the 'under' in seven of the last nine games, including four straight 'unders' in South Bend.
Louisville has played excellent defense on the highway in Big East play, allowing 58 points or less in four of five road conference games (4-1 to the 'under'). The Cardinals and Irish split a pair of meetings last season, including a 14-point victory by Louisville in the Big East tournament as four-point favorites.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-09-13 01:37 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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Study group: Saturday's Top 25 NCAAB betting notes
Top 25 teams seem to have a target on them in recent weeks. Which ranked program will be the next to fall? We preview all the action involving Top 25 teams on Saturday's slate.
Georgetown Hoyas at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+4)
Defense has helped guide Georgetown to a four-game winning streak and a return appearance in the Top 25 and the Hoyas will try to keep it going Saturday afternoon when it visits Rutgers. Georgetown allows the second-fewest points in the Big East (55.3) and the second-lowest shooting percentage (37.5). Since a three-point loss at South Florida on Jan. 19, the Hoyas have allowed 51.5 points while knocking off Notre Dame, Louisville, Seton Hall and St. John's. Rutgers is on the opposite end of the spectrum from Georgetown.
The Scarlet Knights have dropped five straight since beating South Florida on Jan. 17. They have the league's third-worst offense (66.9 points), the second-worst defense (66.9) and have averaged 56.4 points in losses to Notre Dame, St. John's, Connecticut, Cincinnati and Louisville.
Michigan Wolverines at Wisconsin Badgers (+2)
Primarily regarded as an efficient and explosive offensive team, No. 3 Michigan turned to its defense late to pull out an important conference win Wednesday. The Wolverines likely need to follow a similar script on Saturday when they visit Wisconsin. Michigan is tied for second in the Big Ten standings with Michigan State and in the midst of a four-game stretch where it will play each of the other top-five teams in the conference.
Michigan, the second-highest scoring team in the conference, rebounded from last Saturday’s loss at Indiana with a thrilling overtime home victory over Ohio State on Wednesday. The Wolverines have won five of six, but will be forced to take on the Big Ten’s stingiest defense in the Badgers. Wisconsin needed two overtimes Wednesday to down Iowa at home. The Badgers are starting a stretch where they face three consecutive ranked opponents.
Mississippi Rebels at Missouri Tigers (-6)
Mississippi tries for a season sweep of Missouri when the No. 23 Rebels visit the No. 20 Tigers on Saturday. Mississippi led the entire game when it beat then-No. 12 Missouri 64-49 on Jan. 12 in Oxford in the teams' first-ever meeting.
Missouri played without leading scorer Laurence Bowers, who was sidelined with a sprained MCL in his right knee. He is back now for the Tigers. Mizzou is coming off a 70-68 loss at Texas A&M but is 13-0 at home. The Rebels, who are 5-2 on the road, are coming off a 93-75 victory at home against Mississippi State on Wednesday.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Longhorns (+3.5)
Texas attempts to stretch its homecourt win streak over No. 24 Oklahoma State to nine when it hosts the Cowboys on Saturday. The Longhorns are 9-2 at home but are struggling overall with seven defeats in nine games since the start of Big 12 play. Oklahoma State has won four consecutive games. The Cowboys pulled out a dramatic 69-67 victory over Baylor on Wednesday when junior guard Markel Brown scored on a layup with two-tenths of a second remaining in overtime.
Oklahoma State notched a road win at Kansas prior to the squeaker against Baylor. Texas lost 60-58 to West Virginia on Monday. The defeat dropped the Longhorns to 1-7 in games that were decided by six or fewer points or went into overtime. “We are close but it’s the mental things – a couple possessions here and there – that we need to get,” coach Rick Barnes said afterwards.
Butler Bulldogs at George Washington Colonials (+4)
No. 14 Butler may be the only ranked team in its conference, but there is no shortage of conference foes vying for the regular-season crown. The Bulldogs will attempt to bring a bit more clarity to the Atlantic-10 picture on Saturday when it travels to George Washington for the first time in school history. Butler is locked into a three-way tie atop the conference standings at 6-2, but five more teams trail Butler, VCU and St. Louis by one game.
The Colonials are one of those teams and have won four of five following Wednesday’s victory over cellar-dweller Duquesne. The Bulldogs have won two in a row after defeating St. Bonaventure on Wednesday, but have dropped two straight away from home after going 4-1 in true road games prior to conference play. It’s an otherwise small blemish for a Butler team that has won 16 of 18 overall.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes (-7.5)
No. 11 Miami puts its unbeaten home record and perfect ACC mark on the line against North Carolina, a team the Hurricanes earlier defeated on Jan. 10 in Chapel Hill, 68-59. That game featured 11 lead changes and seven ties before the Hurricanes used a late 8-0 spurt to pull away. Miami is 10-0 at the BankUnited Center this year and owns a seven-game home ACC winning streak dating back to last season including a 90-63 blowout of then-No. 1 Duke on Jan. 23.
North Carolina has won six of its last seven games since losing to the Hurricanes including the last three in a row. The Tar Heels come in off a 87-62 victory over visiting Wake Forest on Tuesday, the third time in the last four games North Carolina topped the 80-point mark after not scoring 80 or more in the previous five ACC contests. Despite losing to Miami at home in the first meeting last month, the Tar Heels still own a 18-3 series lead over the Hurricanes.
Kansas Jayhawks at Oklahoma Sooners (+4)
Fifth-ranked Kansas figures to have plenty of motivation when it looks for its 11th straight victory over host Oklahoma on Saturday. The Jayhawks were embarrassed by lowly Texas Christian on Wednesday in an effort that peeved coach Bill Self. “It was the worst team that Kansas ever put on the floor, since Dr. Naismith was there,” Self said. “I think he had some bad teams when he lost to Topeka YMCA in the first couple years.” Both the Jayhawks and Sooners are attempting to end two-game losing streaks.
Oklahoma is well aware that its NCAA tournament hopes will receive a huge boost by knocking off Kansas. “Saturday’s game has to mean more to us than it means to Kansas,” senior forward Romero Osby said. “They’ve already made the NCAA tournament. We’re trying to get there.” The Jayhawks defeated the Sooners 67-54 on Jan. 26. The two-game skid is Kansas’ first since the 2005-06 campaign. The Jayhawks scored just 13 first-half points in the 62-55 loss to TCU. Kansas started the game by making just one of its first 17 shots.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Florida Gators (-28)
Florida was rolling along until a trip to Arkansas on Tuesday, when it allowed 13 more points than in any other game. The second-ranked Gators must rebound from a defeat for the first time since before Christmas as they host struggling Mississippi State on Saturday. Florida had won 10 straight games before the 80-69 loss to the Razorbacks with an efficient offense and stifling defense.
The Gators, one game up on Mississippi and Kentucky in the SEC, should be focused to avoid a letdown against the Bulldogs who they beat 82-47 on Jan. 26. Mississippi State has dropped seven straight in SEC play for the first time since 2006 after winning its first two conference games. The Bulldogs, hampered by injuries all season, have allowed the most points in conference games and struggle mightily putting the ball in the basket at times.
Iowa State Cyclones at Kansas State Wildcats (-5)
No. 15 Kansas State tries to keep pace with Kansas atop the Big 12 when the Wildcats host Iowa State on Saturday. Kansas State has won three straight, including two in a row on the road, while the Cyclones have won three of four to move into a third-place tie in the conference.
Iowa State has won three straight meetings with Kansas State for the first time since 2000-01, when the Cyclones won four in a row. Iowa State is 2-1 in its last three visits to Manhattan, Kan., and defeated Kansas State 73-67 in Ames, Iowa on Jan. 26. The Wildcats are 10-1 at home.
Fresno State Bulldogs at San Diego State Aztecs (-15)
San Diego State's bid to stay in the Mountain West Conference race got a big boost with a dramatic victory Wednesday night. The Aztecs will look to keep the heat on the league front-runners when they host Fresno State on Saturday. After blowing a 17-point lead, San Diego State got a Chase Tapley 3-pointer with 2.8 seconds left to steal a 63-62 win over Boise State. It left the 25th-ranked Aztecs two games behind No. 16 New Mexico with eight games to play.
The Bulldogs snapped a four-game losing streak with a 64-55 victory over UNLV on Wednesday. It was the 10th time that Fresno State has held an opponent under 60 points. Coach Rodney Terry's team had a slightly different look to it. Freshman 7-footer Robert Upshaw sat out the first game of a three-game suspension, but Kansas transfer Braeden Anderson made his collegiate debut after being forced to sit out the first 20 games of the season. Anderson had two rebounds in 12 minutes, but figures to see more action.
Pittsburgh Panthers at Cincinnati Bearcats (Pick)
Pittsburgh had just snuck into the back of the top 25 before opening their Big East slate with a home loss to Cincinnati. Now back at No. 25, the Panthers will be looking for some revenge when they visit the 17th-ranked Bearcats on Saturday. Pittsburgh went on to drop three of its first four conference games but has picked things up with wins in six of the last seven.
Cincinnati is coming off a loss at Providence. The Bearcats rely heavily on Sean Kilpatrick to create offense but the junior guard has struggled with his shot over the last four games, which include two losses. Kilpatrick did most of his damage at the free throw line in the win over the Panthers on Dec. 31 but has settled for 3-point shots more recently instead of attacking the basket. Pittsburgh spreads out its offense more and slows the pace, preferring to work the ball inside before looking for the 3-pointer.
Michigan State Spartans at Purdue Boilermakers (+2.5)
Purdue has been able to hover around .500 in the Big Ten by picking at the bottom of the conference. A date with visiting Michigan State on Saturday will give the Boilermakers another crack at the top tier in the league. The eighth-ranked Spartans dominated Purdue in the first meeting on Jan. 5 and have won eight of their last nine.
The Boilermakers snapped out of a two-game funk with a win at Penn State on Tuesday. Michigan State avenged one of its two Big Ten setbacks with a win over Minnesota on Wednesday and will have to be careful not to overlook Purdue with a date against No. 3 Michigan coming up early next week. The Spartans have been dealing with several injuries lately but expect to have everyone back for Saturday. That can only be bad news for the Boilermakers, who have lost their last two games against top 10 teams by an average of 26 points.
Missouri State Bears at Wichita State Shockers (-17)
No. 22 Wichita State looks to snap a three-game slide when the Shockers host Missouri State on Saturday night. Wichita State has averaged 56.3 points per game in that span, losing to Indiana State, Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois. The Shockers blew a 17-point first-half lead in its 64-62 loss to the Salukis on Tuesday night and committed a 35-second violation with the game tied and 11 seconds left.
Wichita State defeated Missouri State 62-52 on Jan. 23. The Bears have lost six of their last eight games, most recently losing to Northern Iowa 48-37 on Tuesday. The 37 points marked a season-low and a program-low in Mississippi Valley Conference play. The Bears are 6-20 all-time at Wichita, though two of their last three losses came by one-point margins.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-09-13 01:43 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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Utah Utes at Oregon Ducks (-13)
Dominic Artis can’t return soon enough for Oregon, which has lost three straight entering Saturday’s matchup against Utah. The Ducks are 1-3 since the freshman point guard suffered a knee injury two weeks ago, and there’s no timetable for his return. Oregon, which was unbeaten in league play at the time of Artis’ injury, had its 20-game home winning streak snapped by Colorado on Thursday.
Utah’s pattern of surprising wins and perplexing losses continued Wednesday when the Utes were blown out by Oregon State, 82-64. The loss came four days after the Utes defeated Colorado for their first home win in league play. Freshman point guard Brandon Taylor scored a career-high 21 points and had six assists against the Beavers, and he’s provided a much-needed spark since being inserted into the starting lineup last week.
Loyola Marymount Lions at Gonzaga Bulldogs (-24.5)
Gonzaga’s Kelly Olynyk is putting together league player of the year numbers. The 7-1 junior center has scored in double figures in every game since Nov. 23 and shoots 64.3 percent from the field as the sixth-ranked Bulldogs prepare for a visit from struggling Loyola Marymount on Saturday night. Olynyk has been a big part of one of the nation’s top offenses, which has helped Gonzaga to its highest ranking since December of 2008.
The Bulldogs, unbeaten in the West Coast Conference, have won five consecutive games since the loss at No. 14 Butler. Loyola Marymount has lost seven straight games and eight of 10 overall on the road. The Bulldogs will have to contain junior guard Anthony Ireland, who is second in the WCC in scoring. The Lions did recently lose in overtime to San Diego, which only lost by two points to Gonzaga.
Louisville Cardinals at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+4)
After losing three straight games No. 12 Louisville is back on track and carries a three-game winning streak into its Big East showdown at Notre Dame paced by player of the year candidate Russ Smith. The Cardinals, however, have never won at Notre Dame since joining the Big East. The Cardinals are in third in the Big East standings, a half-game behind Syracuse and Marquette.
Notre Dame had its own three-game winning streak snapped last time out falling at sixth-ranked Syracuse. Fighting Irish coach Mike Brey announced n Thursday that his team will remain in the Big East Conference for one more year before leaving for the ACC so you can expect more tight games in this series. Six of the last eight games between these two teams have gone to overtime.
New Mexico Lobos at UNLV Runnin' Rebels (-4)
The Mountain West Conference has seen its share of upsets in recent weeks, but New Mexico has won seven of its last eight games to emerge as the clear front-runner. The Lobos look to maintain their lead Saturday when they visit UNLV, which has lost three of its last four, including a stunning 64-55 loss to last-place Fresno State on Wednesday.
With the first half of Mountain West play complete, New Mexico holds a one-game edge over Colorado State and leads the fourth-place Rebels by three games. The Lobos have won three straight against UNLV, including a 65-60 victory at The Pit on Jan. 9. New Mexico sophomore center Alex Kirk, averaging 11.2 points and 7.3 rebounds, had a season-high 23 points and nine boards in the first matchup with the Rebels.
Illinois State Redbirds at Creighton Bluejays (-9.5)
Creighton is seeing red, and not only because that will be the primary color of the opponent's uniforms when it hosts Illinois State on Saturday. The No. 13 Bluejays are coming off their worst loss of the season - 76-57 at Indiana State on Wednesday, and will have an opportunity to take their frustrations out on the Redbirds, who are in a three-way tie for seventh in the 10-team Missouri Valley Conference. After winning its first six MVC games, first-place Creighton has split its last six, but maintains a one-game lead over Wichita State and Indiana State.
Creighton junior forward Doug McDermott, a national player of the year candidate, is averaging 23.3 points, but was held to eight Wednesday - the second time this season he hasn't reached double figures. The Bluejays begin a stretch of four games against teams at .500 or below in the conference before a showdown at Saint Mary's (20-4) on Feb. 23. Illinois State has won two straight following its 94-86 victory at Drake on Wednesday, and has won five of its last six games since an 0-6 start in conference play.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-09-13 01:43 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12022
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Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
Each week throughout the college basketball season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.
Most Underrated Top 25 Team - Miami Hurricanes (17-3, 14-4 ATS)
The Hurricanes have won 10 straight overall, covering the spread in eight of those contests. They upset top-ranked Duke and they handed the N.C. State Wolfpack their first home loss Saturday, scoring the go-ahead bucket with less than a second remaining on the clock in a 79-78 victory.
The toughest stretch of schedule is already behind them, as they don't face any ranked teams until they meet Duke in early March. They face conference rivals UNC at home Saturday and have already defeated North Carolina on the road by a convincing 9-point margin earlier this season. It wouldn't be too much of a shock to see the Hurricanes continue to climb in the rankings over the next few weeks.
Most Overrated Top 25 Team - UNLV Runnin' Rebels (17-5, 8-13 ATS)
The Rebels are coming off a loss to Boise State their last time out and, while they are 6-4 SU in their last 10, they have only covered the spread in two of those contests. Star forward Mike Moser was ejected in the loss to the Broncos for a flagrant foul in the first half. The Rebels are fortunate that Moser did not receive a suspension and will suit up against Fresno State.
Moser still doesn't appear to be 100 percent since returning from injury, averaging fewer than eight points and just under seven boards on the season. UNLV is just two games back of the Lobos in the Mountain West and they host New Mexico Saturday.
Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked – North Carolina State Wolfpack (16-6, 11-9 ATS)
The Wolfpack lost on their home floor for the first time this season Saturday, but perhaps they deserved better. Already banged up and without their starting PG Lorenzo Brown, the Wolfpack battled hard and took a 6-point lead to the half. They led 74-69 with just over three minutes to play and they held the lead until the final second of the game, with the Hurricanes scoring on a tip-in.
With the loss, the Wolfpack have fallen out of the Top 25 and they have a tough game coming up against Duke Thursday. The rest of the schedule appears to get a little easier, and when Brown returns, they could go on another run with eight straight games versus unranked opponents.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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02-09-13 01:46 PM |
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