Super Bowl action report: Lines getting longer, 49ers money rolling in

Action on the Super Bowl is starting to pick up Friday afternoon as tourist roll into Las Vegas and online books watch their servers hum with the flood of Big Game bets.

We chat with Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook supervisor at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, and Aron Black of Bet365.com as we head into the Super Bowl weekend.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 47.5)

Bets slowly rolled in over the past two weeks, but lines are getting longer at Las Vegas sportsbooks and the majority of those bettors are putting their money down on the San Francisco 49ers.

Books expected this push from the public after taking one-sided action on the Baltimore Ravens for nearly two weeks. The MGM Mirage is dealing the 49ers -3.5 (-120) and is bracing for some big bets, which had to be approved, to come in.

“Right now we’re getting more San Francisco money, but we’re waiting on some larger wagers to come in and we don’t know who they’re betting,” says Stoneback, referring to some renowned casino players and guests expected to flirt with seven-figure wagers Sunday. “Those will make an impact.”

As for the total, both Nevada and online books expect a lean towards the over in the hours before kickoff. Stoneback believes the total, which stands at 47.5, could get as high as 49 before sharps buyback on the under.

The futures odds are an interesting market for most sportsbooks. San Francisco entered the season as the overall favorite to win the Super Bowl and has drawn a lot more attention in the second half of the NFL season.

“Futures wise, we want Baltimore,” Black told Covers. “San Francisco has been heavily backed all season, which died down when Smith went out. But with Kaepernick’s performances and San Francisco winning, they were very popular for the Super Bowl book going into the playoffs.”

47 great betting notes for Super Bowl XLVII


We're just a few days away from Super Bowl XLVII so it's time to really buckle down and get focused on your bets. We put together a list of the best 47 Super Bowl betting notes we could find to help you with your handicapping down the stretch.

Super Bowl/Prop Betting Notes

1. The loser has scored exactly 10 points in four of the six previous Super Bowls at the Superdome.

2. The average margin of victory in those six games at the Superdome was 22 points, thanks to blowouts conducted by arguably the two greatest teams of all time: the 1989 San Francisco 49ers and the 1985 Chicago Bears. The last Super Bowl played in New Orleans, however, was the razor-thin 20-17 New England victory over St. Louis in 2002. (note via cbc.ca)

3. As NFL head coaches, neither Harbaugh has lost a game following a bye week including the playoffs. John is 6-0; Jim is 3-0-1.

4. Super Bowl favorites (read: San Francisco) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 13-10 SU and 7-14-2 ATS.

5. Twenty-eight points is the cut-line for favorites in Super Bowl games. Since 1980, those who failed to score 28 points in the big game are 1-16-1 ATS. Those who managed to tally 28 or more points are 12-1-1 ATS.

6. The NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 21-10 SU and 20-9-3 ATS.

7. The over is 3-2 in San Francisco's last five trips to the Super Bowl. The Ravens covered the over by themselves against the Giants in Super Bowl XXXV.

8. The last running back to be Super Bowl MVP was Terrell Davis (Broncos 1998). Since then nine QBs, three WRs, and two defensive players have won MVP.

9. The Super Bowl coin toss is one of the most popular prop bets every year. 'Heads' has been the right call in the last four Super Bowls and five of the last six.

10. Until last season, when New England won the flip, the NFC had won the pregame coin flip each of the previous 14 years. (Marc Lawrence)

11. Over the previous 46 Super Bowls, wide receivers lead the brigade, scoring the first touchdown 19 times.

12. In the past 20 years, 17 Super Bowls have been won by the team that hails from the city with the lower unemployment rate. It would seem a win for the Ravens is a slam dunk then with Baltimore's 7.2 percent rate trumping San Francisco's 8.2 percent rate. (Fox Sports)

13. Tecmo Bowl, the football arcade game originally released in 1988, predicted a 49ers 37-17 victory in a simulated Super Bowl game recently conducted by a group called The TecmoBowlers.

14. The Super Bowl record for the team that scores first is 30-16 SU.

Action Betting Notes

15. The most action wagered in Nevada on a Super Bowl came in 2006 when $94.5 million was taken in for the Seahawks-Steelers game. The books won nearly $9 million in Pittsburgh's 21-10 victory - a win percentage or hold of 9.3 percent. (via Nevada Gaming Control Board)

16. The only time Nevada sportsbooks lost money on the Super Bowl in the past 10 years was the 2008 game between the Giants and Patriots. They lost a combined $2.6 million in total (-2.8 percent hold) in the Giants' 21-17 victory. (via Nevada Gaming Control Board)

17. Teddy Covers: "I expect the 49ers to be in that same pointspread range (-3.5 or -4) between now and kickoff."

18. John Avello, executive director of sports and racing at the Wynn Las Vegas says about 20 percent of the total Super Bowl handle will be from prop bets.

San Francisco 49ers Betting Notes

19. San Francisco 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick has improved against added pressure during the postseason, primarily because he is making quicker decisions. He held onto the football for 3.8 seconds before passing, taking a sack or scrambling in the regular season when facing five or more pass rushers (league average: 3.4 seconds). That has dipped to 2.8 seconds in the postseason, and the result has been a 98.9 total quarterback rating (out of 100).

20. Super Bowl XLVII will end a streak of five straight title games where at least one quarterback had Super Bowl experience (ESPN Stats and Info).

21. The 49ers feature nearly twice as many former first-round picks (15) than the Ravens (8). (ESPN Stats and Info)

22. The NFC has won three straight Super Bowls. The last time the NFC won four in a row was streak of 13 straight Super Bowl wins from 1984-96.

23. Thirty-nine of the 46 Super Bowl winners have owned top-10 ranked defenses.

24. While clubs with the better defense have gone 22-10 SU and 17-13-2 ATS in the big game since 1981, these teams are only 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS over the last six years.

25. The 49ers are 5-0 all-time in the Super Bowl. They are the only franchise with more than one Super Bowl appearance without a loss.

26. San Francisco needs a win Sunday to tie Pittsburgh as the only franchises to win six Super Bowls.

27. The 49ers' Vernon Davis has the most receiving yards per game (110.5) by a tight end in postseason history.

28. The Ravens downed the Niners, 16-6, on Thanksgiving Day last year, marking the only time Brother Jim has come up short in a non-conference tilt. He is 7-1 SU and ATS against the AFC. That ties into his 19-5 SU and 18-4-2 ATS record in all games played outside the NFC West division.

29. Jim Harbaugh is 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 over/under in games when the total is set at more than 43 points, while John is 5-1-1 over/under in games identically set at more than 43 points.

30. The over is 6-0 in San Francisco's last six games overall.

31. San Francisco had the No. 3 total defense in the league this year, the No. 2 scoring defense, the No. 2 rushing defense and the No. 4 passing defense in the regular season.

32. The 49ers are averaging significantly more yards and points in all those categories in the playoffs, except for rushing yards per game, where they're giving up about two fewer yards per game than in the regular season.

33. The Niners have greatly increased the use of the option their two playoff games, running the play 29 times while averaging 8.4 yards per rush with four touchdowns. (ESPN Stats & Info)

34. The San Francisco 49ers have outscored opponents 114-58 in the third quarter this season.

35. The Niners have been outscored 64-78 by their opposition in the first quarter this season.

36. The 49ers have been beat up by the deep ball recently, allowing 15 plays of 20 or more yards in the last three games, with four of those plays posting 40 or more yards. They gave up only 32 plays of 20 or more yards in the 15 games previous. To cut the Niners some slack, those games were against elite QBs Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan.

Baltimore Ravens Betting Notes

37. Ray Rice is averaging 21.3 carries per game this postseason. The Ravens are 21-3 when he starts and gets more than 20 carries.

38. The Ravens lead the all-time series with the 49ers 3-1 and have won three straight. The last two Ravens-49ers games have had a combined two TDs scored.

39. The Ravens are 7-1 all-time as the No. 4 seed. Their previous Super Bowl win in 2001 came as a No. 4 seed. Baltimore boasts a 13-7 record in the postseason, the best win percentage of any franchise.

40. The Ravens have allowed only two passing TDs to tight ends this season (including the playoffs) - the fewest TDs allowed to tight ends this season.

41. Baltimore's only Super Bowl appearance was in 2001, which was one of the most profitable Super Bowls for sportsbooks (16.3% win percentage) over the past 12 seasons. The Ravens were favored by three points in their 34-7 win over the Giants.

42. The Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff games.

43. The Ravens had to play in three playoff games prior to the Super Bowl, while San Francisco has only had to play in two. Five of the last seven Super Bowl winners had to play in the Wild Card round.

44. With eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions, Joe Flacco has a shot to tie or break Joe Montana's record for most touchdown passes without throwing an interception in a single postseason. (ESPN Stats & Info)

45. Every quarterback who has finished a postseason throwing at least eight touchdowns without a pick has not only won the Super Bowl, but also the Super Bowl MVP. (ESPN Stats & Info)

46. The Ravens are 10-5 in road/neutral playoff games - the best win percentage of any franchise. (ESPN Stats and Info)

47. Baltimore has been outscored in each of the first two quarters in games against playoff opposition, while managing to bounce back and dominate in the fourth quarter.

Super Bowl action report: Books could see spread as high as 4.5


The betting public tends to gravitate toward the favorite and the over in the big games, and there is no game bigger than Super Bowl XLVII.

With kickoff just over 24 hours away, that one-sided wave of action on the San Francisco 49ers has pushed most sportsbook to move the spread for Sunday’s Big Game to Niners -4. If this trend continues, the spread could get close to its original number when the odds were released on Jan. 20.

“We were even for the first week and a half but the last few days the San Francisco money started to take over,” Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas, told Covers. “We were at -3.5 for about 10 days but went to -4 late (Friday) morning. I expect it to close at -4.5 at most places with a few at -4.”

Online books are seeing similar betting patterns, with money leaning toward the favorite. However, while they do think the spread has a chance at -4.5, they expect sharp money to buy back the Ravens at the inflated spread.

“Definitely seems to be headed that way,” Dave Mason of BetOnline.ag told Covers. “Just took a couple sharp bets on San Francisco moneyline. They are now up to -180. My guess it will close four, with a good shot at 4.5. Would be surprised if it closes 3.5.”

As for action on the total, the tourists pouring into Sin City will likely be attaching the over to their San Francisco bets with some books expecting the number to climb as high as 49 before bettors come back on the under.

“After the first wave of under money it’s been nothing but over,” says Kornegay. “We expect that to continue and we’ll close the total at 48.5.”

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Super Bowl XLVII

In a game as big as the Super Bowl, there’s no shortage of analysis and re-analysis. The media mosh pit breaks down every angle for the Big Game, in hopes of finding the edge.

We’ve been doing this each week of the NFL season, exposing the underlying mismatches to keep you one step ahead of the books, and we’re not going to stop now. Here are three betting mismatches you may or may not have considered when handicapping Super Bowl XLVII.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 47)

Ravens’ deep threat vs. Niners’ deep-rooted issues

The Ravens rode the big arm of QB Joe Flacco to New Orleans, with Baltimore averaging 276 yards per game and 9.2 yards per pass in the playoffs. Flacco isn’t afraid to let it fly, going 20 yards or more on over 17 percent of his pass attempts this year – highest in the league. Half on his 22 TD passes this season have been on deep balls.

San Francisco watched Atlanta move the ball with ease en route to a 17-0 lead in the second quarter of the NFC Championship Game. The Falcons spread the love amongst their receivers and got two deep strikes from WR Julio Jones. The 49ers have been beat up by the deep ball recently, allowing 15 plays of 20 or more yards in the last three games, with four of those plays posting 40 or more yards. They gave up only 32 plays of 20 or more yards in the 15 games previous. To cut the Niners some slack, those games were against elite QBs Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan.

Niners’ QB Colin Kaepernick vs. Ravens’ record vs. dual threats

Baltimore’s aging defense hasn’t had to tangle with many dual-threat QBs this season. However, the two times they did have to worry about the QB breaking off big gains, they got burned for losses. The Ravens fell 24-23 to Philadelphia and Michael Vick (371 yards passing, 34 yards rushing and a TD) in Week 2 and lost 31-28 in overtime to Washington and rookie Robert Griffin III (242 yards passing, 34 yards rushing) in Week 14.

The Ravens have a tough time getting sideline to sideline and Kaepernick presents a huge challenge. Not only does his ability to scramble and break the big run need to be accounted for on every snap, but he’s proven just as dangerous with his arm. Kaepernick gashed Green Bay for 181 yards and two TDs on the ground while tacking on two more scores and 263 passing yards in the NFC Divisional Round.

Ravens’ oh-so special teams vs. Niners’ not-so special teams

The biggest chink in the 49ers' armor this season is their special teams. San Francisco was second worst in the NFL in kick return coverage, giving up 26.9 yards per kickoff. The Niners didn’t take any chances last week, recording five touchbacks on five kickoffs. The Ravens return team was tops in the NFL in average return yards, picking up 27.3 yards per kickoff and returned two kicks for scores, both from speedster Jacoby Jones.

On top of that, Baltimore boasts the steady leg of rookie Justin Tucker, who connected on 32 of his 35 field goal attempts and is perfect on extra points. He’s hit both FG attempts in the postseason so far, which is more than 49ers kicker David Akers can say. Akers has been shaky all season (29 for 42 FGA) and “donged” a 38-yard attempt off the left upright versus Atlanta two weeks ago. San Francisco may roll the dice on fourth down instead of sending out Akers for the long FG shot Sunday.

NFL Super Bowl XLVII betting trends and notes


Unlike Romulus and Remus, Jim and John Harbaugh will not be fighting to a terrible death. Instead, they are the first pair of brothers to coach against each other in a Super Bowl.

In addition, this game marks Baltimore linebacker Ray Lewis’ last game in his NFL career. The mercurial future Hall of Famer and Super Bowl XXXV MVP will be performing his final dance at the Superdome on February 3.

As such, Super Bowl XLVII will be filled with plenty of firsts… and lasts.

Let’s take a look at how Baltimore and San Francisco arrived to New Orleans and what history says about their chances of hoisting the trophy.

All results are ATS (against the spread) unless noted otherwise.

Oh, brother

Baltimore’s John Harbaugh has been at his best when playing with a week or more of rest in his NFL career, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. In addition, John is 30-12 SU against teams he managed to defeat in a previous meeting.

The Ravens downed the Niners, 16-6, on Thanksgiving Day last year, marking the only time Brother Jim has come up short in a non-conference tilt, as he is 7-1 SU and ATS against the AFC. That ties into his 19-5 SU and 18-4-2 ATS record in all games played outside the NFC West division.

Under his lead, San Francisco is an eye-opening 25-1-1 SU in games in which it rushes the ball 25 or more times a game.

In addition, the Harbaughs bring smiles to the face of over players with Jim going 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 over/under in games when the total is set at more than 43 points, while John is 5-1-1 over/under in games identically set at more than 43 points.

Warning: 12 of the 18 Super Bowl games on artificial turf have played under the total.

Advantage: Even

Commonality

These two teams squared off against two common opponents on 2012, the New England Patriots and the New York Giants.

The Ravens were 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, winning the total yardage stats by an average 127 yards per game.

The Niners went 1-1 SU and ATS despite being out-yarded in both games by an average 86 yards per game.

In head-to-head games against fellow playoff squads this season, Baltimore went 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS and 4-5 ITS (In The Stats), while San Francisco was 5-2 SU and 3-3-1 ATS and 3-4 ITS.

Advantage: Ravens

Not so sweet favorites

The sporting public loves backing favorites and when it comes to the Super Bowl it’s like putting kids in a candy store. They go crazy.

As a result the public today suffers from a severe case of betting diabetes. That’s because overloading on these super-sweet favorites has proven to be an unhealthy experience, with favorites sporting a 20-12 SU and 13-17-2 ATS record, including 5-10-2 ATS the last 17 games.

Super Bowl favorites (read: San Francisco) taking on opponents off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are just 13-10 SU and 7-14-2 ATS.

Twenty-eight points is the cut-line for favorites in Super Bowl games. Since 1980, those who failed to score 28 points in the big game are 1-16-1 ATS. Those who managed to tally 28 or more points are 12-1-1 ATS.

FYI: Baltimore has surrendered 28 or more points in 13 of 93 games under John Harbaugh, including twice in 12 playoff games.

Advantage: Ravens

Conference call

Much like the National League’s one-time mastery over the American League, the NFC has held the upper hand over the AFC in Super Bowl games since the 1980 season, going 21-10 SU and 20-9-3 ATS, including 4-0 SU and ATS the last four years.

However, the NFC is only 6-9 SU and 8-6-1 ATS in the last 13 Super Bowl contests.

Ironically this game marks the seventh year in a row that the NFC representative squared off against the AFC East in its designated non-conference clashes.

This is only the second time in the last 11 years the AFC is the underdog.

Advantage: Niners

Statistically speaking

Baltimore’s 364 yards per game offense is 11th best in the league while it’s 361 YPG defense ranks No. 21.

San Francisco owns a Top-10 ranked offense and defense, averaging 375 YPG on offense and 308 YPG On defense.

From Game 9 out, or the 2nd half of the season, the Ravens’ net yardage (offense gained and defense allowed) improved 31 YPG. Surprisingly, the Niners’ net yardage slipped 29 YPG over the same span.

Advantage: Even

Defense rules… most of the time

It’s no surprise that 39 of the 46 Super Bowl winners have owned Top-10 ranked defenses.

What is surprising, though, is that while clubs with the better defense have gone 22-10 SU and 17-13-2 ATS in the big game since 1981, these teams are only 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS over the last six years.

Advantage: Niners

NFL Prop Shop: Super Bowl XLVII prop picks

It's almost time to close down the Prop Shop for another year, but not before targeting four best bets on Super Bowl Sunday.

Most passing yards

Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers)

I expect both quarterbacks to have plenty of success on Sunday, but I can't resist playing Kaepernick with a considerable yardage cushion. The 49ers receivers match up well against the Ravens secondary, and I don't think we'll see Kaepernick hesitate to throw it deep when given the opportunity.

We haven't seen a lot of that from the rookie, but I expect the Ravens to do a nice job of limiting Kaepernick's mobility in this game and as a result, forcing him to take to the air a little more often than usual. Joe Flacco is well-positioned to turn in another stellar effort but his lack of consistency worries me in terms of this prop.

Take: Kaepernick +17.5 yards (-110)

Most rushing yards

Ray Rice (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers)

Ray Rice is still the Ravens’ go-to guy out of the backfield, but Bernard Pierce has certainly cut into his workload and I think we'll see more of that Sunday. The 49ers are obviously tough up front and I'm not sure that Rice's physical, north-south running will lead to a big day on the ground. Don't be surprised if Rice is more of a factor in the Ravens’ short passing game.

Colin Kaepernick is getting all of the press, but Frank Gore is still the engine that makes the 49ers offense go. With much of the Ravens’ defensive game-planning geared toward stopping Kaepernick, Gore will find plenty of room to run. He might not see the end zone, with LaMichael James delivering consistently from 15 yards in, but he'll outrun Ray Rice by a considerable margin.

Take: Gore -17.5 yards (-110)

Most pass receptions

Anquan Boldin (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers)

The re-emergence of Anquan Boldin has been an overlooked factor in the Ravens’ run to the Super Bowl. Joe Flacco is more comfortable throwing to Boldin than anyone else right now and in a game of this magnitude, it's the veterans that often shine.

Michael Crabtree has really come out of his shell over the last couple of months. No 49ers receiver has benefited more from the change at quarterback. With that comes more attention from the opposition, and I won't be surprised if the Ravens send double-coverage Crabtree's way on numerous occasions.

Take: Boldin (+105)

Total combined field goals made

The hook could come in to play, so make sure you can find a 3.5.

The Ravens have a lot of faith in Justin Tucker, but the 49ers are at the opposite end of the spectrum with David Akers.

I simply feel that the two offenses are operating at a peak level right now and we won't see a lot of stalled drives in enemy territory. Let's call for two from Tucker and one from Akers.

Take: Under 3.5 (-160)

Sunday, February 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Baltimore - 6:30 PM ET San Francisco -4.5 500

San Francisco - Under 47.5 500


My Prediciton 9ers by 10 or more...


9ers - 28

Ravens - 17