The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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bawlmer
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 2344
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Broncos @ Ravens
Broncos ML (BIG!!)
I would put this play in now as I don’t necessarily see the line moving up too much more as you can’t really have an away team favored by too many points against a 9-4 team who has one of the best home field advantages in the NFL, however I could see this being one of those unusually high ML’s for a 3 or 4 point spread. I see this game as not only a terrible matchup for the Ravens, but also coming at the worst possible time. It’s very similar to back in October when the Ravens traveled to Houston and were embarrassed by the Texans. I did a write up for that game (http://wminvesting.com/forums/topic/730/ravens-texans) and like everyone else I don’t usually like playing against my team, but I see this as one of those opportunities that I just can’t pass up.
The Ravens come into this one really banged up on the defensive side of the ball and that’s not a problem you want to have when Peyton comes to town. We got Suggs back in October but anyone who has had an Achilles injury will tell you that it takes a while to get back to your previous playing level. He has done an admirable job since returning but he is a game time decision on Sunday and I doubt he will play. Ray Lewis is also a game time decision although I think he will try to suit up. If one or both of these guys can’t go we will have a real problem at the linebacker spot as we will also be without starters Jameel McClain, Dannell Ellerbe. That leaves a LB corps that would start Josh Bynes (undrafted rookie) and Brandon Ayenbaedjo (special team’s guru). You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to know that’s not who you want in your starting lineup when you have to face Peyton.
Our secondary isn’t in much better shape. Ed is still Ed but he is getting old and has no doubt lost a step. Bernard Pollard has done well in the other safety spot but it’s our corners where we are really thin. We will be without our top 2 corners Lardarius Webb and Jimmy Smith, both lost to injury for the year. The number 3 corner Cary Williams has been getting burned on a consistent basis and the rest of the guys are backups and fill-ins that we have tried to use to plug the holes. Obviously it’s not working. Cary Williams is really catching a lot of grief in town not only for his play, but also for turning down a contract offer before the season started because he thought he could get more money in free agency after the season. Note to Cary…when Ozzie Newsome offers you a contract you take it. I think Thomas, Decker, and Stokeley, as well as the Broncos tight end corps will have a field day.
If injuries and our weak secondary play isn’t enough, our once stout run defense has also struggled all year. I really believe that unless we are facing a running back that is strictly a north-south runner we really don’t stand much of a chance. Any runner that can get the edge us on his will give us problems, just like Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster did. Knowshon Moreno isn’t as fleet of foot as those guys but he has enough speed to get to the edge and to eat up some yards through the middle if his line gets good blocking. It also doesn’t help our D that Haloti isn’t 100% either and that Terrance Cody isn’t that good. Paul Kruger and Arthur Jones have done a good job the last few weeks getting to the QB, but they are mainly pass rush guys and are both weak against the run. Denver should be able to exploit this and really get the play action pass game going.
In my opinion this all adds up to the Ravens getting blown out. With Peyton’s ability to call and manage the game from the line of scrimmage he will give our young and inexpericened linebackers problems all day. He should be able to manipulate and trick them and eat us up all day with short to mid-range passes. In addition, I think Denver should be able to run the ball on us with Knowshon so when Reed and Pollard move up closer to the line of scrimmage to help stop the run and neutralize the short to mid-range passes, that is when Peyton will burn our corners deep with Demaryius. Take this for whats it worth but again I just see this as a terrible matchup for the Ravens at the worst possible time. This could be one of those classic Peyton called and managed games that any football fan grew to love when he is was the old Peyton back in Indy.
Two final notes real quick…I would also suggest starting Peyton, Thomas, and Decker in fantasy if you can. It probably wouldn’t hurt to throw in Knowshon either, especially if it’s a PPR league. Finally the forecast for Sunday here in Baltimore is for showers or drizzle throughout the game. Don’t let this bother you. I was at the game several years back in the pouring rain when Peyton dropped like 35 points on the Ravens in the first half. That was against a good Ravens defense too and not this year’s crap. That was the only Ravens game I have ever left early. I hope it’s the last but this Sunday could get ugly in Baltimore.
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12-14-12 05:38 PM |
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