They are currently +250 at my book. I feel like they have a solid shot to win the last 3 games against Ravens, Browns, and Eagles. They are 6-6. The Giants are 7-5 with Saints, Falcons, and Ravens. If Washington sweep and Giants lose one game then the tie breaker goes to Washington bc they tied head to head but Washington has a better record in the division. Looks like a great value spot here. Thoughts anybody?
I don't have the division bet available at my book, but there's a similar one available for redskins to make the playoffs at +130. Don't think it makes as much sense as the better odds for winning the division though.
I did just make a play on RG3 to win ROY at +140, Luck was -140 and the field is +700. RG3 has way better stats than Luck, but the Colts are currently more likely to make the playoffs than the Skins. Just seems to me that RG3 is better than Luck. What do you guys think?
Anyways, I like the Skins at +250 as they have about the same % chance as the Gmen to get the 4th overall spot in the NFC (31%). This is based on all future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
got this info from - http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfcstandings.html
Luck will/should win ROY. Production is higher. Yds, Td's, wins (as of today) and the way he wins the games. He's delivered 5 GW drives to date. Plus the fact of what kind of team they were last year and the difference he's made from then. RGIII has Morris to lean on as well. RGIII is a freak, but he certainly does not deserve the ROY imo.
I guess I see the argument for Luck if the Colts make the playoffs and the Skins don't, but if they both make the playoffs - RG3's overall numbers are way more impressive to me. Luck's QBR is something like 29th in the league, he throws way too many interceptions. While he is impressive in the clutch, he got gifted that win last week by Jim Schwartz and his horrible end game management.
Regarding the division, while the numbers seem right for Washington, gotta also remember that this is about that time in the season when the Giants kick it up a notch and get hot.
Thanks for all the input guys. My book has the Giants -180, Washington +250 and Cowboys +350 for the NFC East. Maybe why its only a $50 max bet on this prop lol I just ask if I could go higher than that let's what happens...
Luck has to play the Texans twice still and I guarantee the Texans will be fired up and play hard vs our biggest rival. Plus he has not done well against the better defenses he has played. Wade Phillips will have him confused all day. They may not make the playoffs, the Texans will want to play spoiler for sure.
I think you are missing the last games of Wash and NYG? Dallas and Phily. That makes it a bit more interesting and puts me in the middle on the wager. I still like the value though.
NFL regular season
All Plays 39-8
Shed Bets 7-2
NFL Playoff Record
Shed Bets 3-0
Medium-Strong Bets 4-0
Small bets 0-2
2nd Half bets 3-0