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NFL
Sunday, November 25
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49ers at Saints: What bettors need to know
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San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (1, 49)
A one-week injury may have been all it took for Alex Smith to lose his job as the starting quarterback of the San Francisco 49ers. Colin Kaepernick is expected to be under center Sunday when the 49ers look to extend their winning streak to five games against the visiting New Orleans Saints. Smith has been demoted to second-team reps in practice by head coach Jim Harbaugh, who was left impressed by Kaepernick's performance in Monday's 32-7 drubbing of the Chicago Bears.
Kaepernick's second NFL start will pit him against one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game. Drew Brees leads a Saints team that has reeled off three straight victories and is 5-1 since opening the year with four straight losses. As expected, Brees has been the catalyst - he torched the Oakland Raiders for three scores in a Week 11 victory and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this season. He'll be in tough against a San Francisco defense allowing the second-fewest passing yards in the league.
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.
LINE: 49ers -1, O/U: 49.
ABOUT THE 49ERS (7-2-1): As Smith sat recovering from a concussion, Kaepernick staked his claim to the starting role with 243 passing yards and two touchdowns against Chicago's vaunted defense. Kaepernick was given a ringing post-game endorsement by tight end Vernon Davis, who finished with six catches for 83 yards and a score. "I felt like somebody took the handcuffs off me," said Davis, who had amassed just nine catches for 101 yards in his previous four contests - all with Smith at the helm.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (5-5): While New Orleans' offense continues to roll over the opposition, the defense has made quiet strides during the team's current winning streak. The Saints kept Oakland at bay in a 38-17 victory on Sunday and has surrendered an average of 19 points over its last three games. Running back Darren Sproles has been participating in practice and is expected to return after missing the last three weeks with a broken hand. Sproles will be a popular option for Brees in what becomes a muddled backfield.
TRENDS:
* Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* 49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven November games.
* Over is 10-1 in Saints’ last 11 vs. NFC opponents.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Brees is 5-0 lifetime in the regular season against the 49ers, with 12 touchdowns, two interceptions and a quarterback rating of 107.2.
2. San Francisco linebacker Aldon Smith's 5 1/2 sacks against Chicago give him 29 in his first 26 NFL games, the most by any player over that time frame.
3. The 49ers lead the all-time series 45-24-2.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-25-12 03:46 PM |
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CNOTES
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NFL
Sunday, November 25
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Sunday Night Football: Packers at Giants
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Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-3, 50.5)
The past two Super Bowl champions will square off when the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers try to protect their division title hopes Sunday night at MetLife Stadium. The Giants are coming off a bye week and have lost two straight, but they're still lead the mediocre NFC East. Green Bay might have relinquished its spot atop the NFC Central - depending on Chicago's outcome against Minnesota on Sunday afternoon - by the time the prime-time showdown arrives, but the Packers will be in good shape in the wild card race, regardless.
The Packers have won six of the past seven regular-season meetings, including a 38-35 road win last December. But the Giants spoiled Green Bay's bid for a second consecutive Super Bowl title last January, winning 37-20 in Green Bay en route to winning the title itself.
TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.
LINE: New York -3. O/U: 50.5.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark and mostly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the WSW at 6 mph.
ABOUT THE PACKERS (7-3): After a bit of a slow start, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has heated up as the Packers have won five straight and six of seven. He leads the NFL with a 107.3 rating and has 27 touchdown passes against six interceptions. The Packers haven't been able to mount much of a run game, but they're more likely to attack the Giants through the air, as New York ranks 25th against the pass and surrendered 415 passing yards against Dallas in Week 8. Green Bay's defense will be shorthanded with cornerback Charles Woodson out with a broken collarbone and linebacker Clay Matthews (hamstring) listed as questionable.
ABOUT THE GIANTS (6-4): New York looked like a real threat to defend its title as recently as three weeks ago, but the flaws have been exposed in consecutive losses. The offense stalled in a 24-20 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 9, and four turnovers were their undoing in a 31-13 loss at Cincinnati in Week 10. Eli Manning has gone three games without a touchdown pass, but he has a strong record against the Packers. He has passed for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns in the past two meetings with Green Bay, including last year's playoff win.
TRENDS:
* Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
* Over is 5-0 in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Manning needs two touchdowns passes to tie Phil Simms (199) for the most in franchise history.
2. The Packers are 25-0 when Rodgers starts and has a rating of 115 or higher. He has a 121.2 rating in two regular-season starts against the Giants.
3. The Giants are 10-0 when RB Ahmad Bradshaw has at least 100 rushing yards. Bradshaw (foot) is listed as questionable.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-25-12 03:47 PM |
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Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves
We talked to Mike Perry, oddsmaker for UWIN.com, about the flow of action coming in on Sunday’s NFL games.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: Pick, 48, Move: -1, 51
If the conference-leading Atlanta Falcons hope to continue their winning ways, they'll have to derail one of the hottest teams in the league when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a matchup of the top two clubs in the NFC South. Some books even had Tampa Bay as the favorite earlier in the week.
“We opened this game a pick ‘em and now have this one Atlanta -1.5,” says Perry. "And 86 percent of the money is on the Falcons.”
The Bucs have played over the total in seven consecutive games and bettors have driven the number up to 51 after it opened at 48.
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints - Open: Pick, Move: +1
Niners coach Jim Harbaugh is mum on who his starting QB will be for this game, but numerous reports suggest Colin Kaepernick will be under center on Sunday after his impressive outing last week.
“We are using Niners -1 now and 60 percent of the money is on New Orleans,” notes Perry. “I think it’s a good thing for San Francisco to use Kaepernick. He provides them with more of a dual threat (run and pass) on offense.”
Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins – Open: +1, Move: +3
Seasoned bettors know the Seahawks are almost a sure bet at raucous CenturyLink Field. But Seattle is proving itself on the road this season too.
“Bettors definitely have more faith in Seattle on the road this season,” according to Perry. “The Seahawks have covered in two of their last three on the road and five of six overall. Despite those numbers, 85 percent of the action is on Miami -3.”
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants – Open: -1, 49, Move: -3, 51
This marquee matchup has been getting all kinds of attention from a betting perspective, but it’s not just the spread that has bettors excited about this one.
“Packers/Giants will be the biggest game of the week from a volume (action) perspective,” notes Perry. “The Giants are currently at the opening number of -2.5 here and the total has gone from 49 to 51.5. Around 80 percent of the action is on the Packers, but the over (90%) has also been a popular bet.”
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-25-12 03:50 PM |
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CNOTES
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Big NFC Matchups Headline Week 12 In NFL On Sunday
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/25/2012 at 1:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Pick'em, O/U 48
Television: FOX
Atlanta Falcons: The season's first meeting between the Falcons (9-1 straight-up, 6-4 against the spread) and the Bucs finds Atlanta holding a three-game advantage in the NFC South over Tampa Bay. Atlanta has failed to cover its last two games but is 4-1 SU and ATS on the road this season. The Falcons and Buccaneers split their matchups a year ago, each winning and covering at home.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: First-year head coach Greg Schiano has the Buccaneers (6-4 SU, 8-2 ATS) hitting on all cylinders as they ride a four-game winning streak on the field and at the window into this contest. "Over" bettors are also smiling with a string of seven straight above the total, directly contrasting with this series trend that has seen four of the last six clashes at Raymond James Stadium fail to reach the scoreboard figure.
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San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/25/2012 at 4:25 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: San Francisco -2, O/U 48˝
Television: FOX
San Francisco 49ers: A rematch from last year's NFC Divisional Round in the playoffs, the Niners (7-2-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) come off a very impressive Monday night win over the Bears with second-string quarterback Colin Kaepernick making his first NFL start. Kaepernick was an efficient 16-of-23 for 243 yards and two scoring strikes in the 32-7 triumph, and the San Fran defense held Chicago to less than 150 yards. The "under" is 3-1 in 49ers road games this year.
New Orleans Saints: After starting 0-4, the Saints (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS) have worked their way back into playoff contention with five wins in the last six games, covering each victory. The ground attack has picked up in recent weeks with at least 140 yards rushing in three consecutive wins. New Orleans has won six of the last seven vs. the 49ers in the Superdome, and seven of the last nine on this Big Easy turf have stayed "under."
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Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/25/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Giants -2˝, O/U 49
Television: NBC
Green Bay Packers: This potential playoff preview finds the Pack (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) tied with the Bears at the top of the NFC North and riding a five-game winning streak. Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in the span, winning and covering three games on the road during the stretch. The Packers have also won their last four roadies vs. the G-Men, including a 38-35 triumph last December as 7-point road chalk.
New York Giants: The Giants (6-4 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) come off their bye week having lost the last two games prior to taking Week 11 off. New York QB Eli Manning took most of the heat for those setbacks, as he has gone three games without a TD pass while tossing four picks. The Giants have covered three of the last four in this series, including a 37-20 upset at Green Bay in the playoffs last January, and the last five meetings have all gone past the total.
__________________
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-25-12 03:58 PM |
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CNOTES
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NFL
Monday, November 26
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Monday Night Football: Panthers at Eagles
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Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (2.5, 40.5)
Two teams with lofty aspirations at the onset of the season will meet on Monday night with little on the line - aside from the potential employment of their respective head coaches. The Philadelphia Eagles will look to snap their six-game losing skid when they welcome the Carolina Panthers to the City of Brotherly Love. Long-time coach Andy Reid has been taken to task in the local newspapers and sports talk shows after the Eagles went through the motions in a 31-6 loss to NFC East-rival Washington on Sunday.
Carolina squandered an 11-point lead with five minutes remaining in regulation en route to a 27-21 overtime loss to NFC South rival Tampa Bay. The loss prompted many in the local media to pepper coach Ron Rivera with questions about his job security. With former general manager Marty Hurney getting the boot earlier in the season, Rivera will likely need a strong finish to improve his standing.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: Panthers -2.5 O/U: 40.5
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-30s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the west at 5 mph.
ABOUT THE PANTHERS (2-8): Cam Newton has come under fire during his sophomore season - both for his performance and his perceived indifference to it all. The former Heisman Trophy winner is struggling, but could find the waters smooth against a battered Eagles pass defense. Newton has formed a nice bond with tight end Greg Olsen, who has scored in two of his last three games versus Philadelphia.
ABOUT THE EAGLES (3-7): With the outcome of last Sunday's game no longer in doubt, LeSean McCoy carried the ball in the waning moments and suffered a concussion that could sideline him versus the Panthers. McCoy and quarterback Michael Vick have yet to practice this week and will likely watch rookies Bryce Brown and Nick Foles continue in their place. Foles tossed interceptions on his first two possessions versus Washington and the game quickly unraveled.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-1-1 in Eagles’ last eight home games.
* Over is 4-1-1 in Eagles' last six Monday games.
* Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Rivera was a linebackers coach under Reid in Philadelphia from 1999-2003. In addition, Carolina defensive coordinator Sean McDermott held the same post with the Eagles after Jim Johnson passed away in 2009.
2. Philadelphia has defeated Carolina in three straight since falling to the Panthers in the 2004 NFC Championship game.
3. Should McCoy sit out, Brown would make his first start since his senior year in high school.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-27-12 12:43 AM |
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CNOTES
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NFL
Monday, November 26
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Tale of the tape: Panthers at Eagles
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Offense
Cam Newton has come under fire during his sophomore season - both for his performance and his perceived indifference to it all. The former Heisman Trophy winner is struggling, but could find the waters smooth against a battered Eagles pass defense. Newton has formed a nice bond with tight end Greg Olsen, who has scored in two of his last three games versus Philadelphia. The Panthers are an uncharacteristic 16th in rushing yardage after racking up more yards on the ground than any team in the NFL since 2008.
With the outcome of last Sunday's game no longer in doubt, LeSean McCoy carried the ball in the waning moments and suffered a concussion that will sideline him versus the Panthers. McCoy and quarterback Michael Vick (concussion) will watch rookies Bryce Brown and Nick Foles continue in their place. Foles tossed interceptions on his first two possessions versus Washington and the game quickly unraveled after that. In addition, wide receiver Jason Avant (strained hamstring) and running back Chris Polk (sprained toe) also will not play against the Panthers.
Edge: Panthers
Defense
Panthers DE Greg Hardy, who has seven sacks this season, is dealing with an undisclosed illness and is considered questionable. Linebacker Jordan Senn is doubtful with an ankle injury for a stop unit that ranks in the middle of the pack in most defensive categories.
The Eagles' pass defense has surrendered 11 touchdown passes and hasn’t recorded an interception over the past four weeks. Opposing QBs have rung up a gaudy 143.6 passer rating against Philadelphia over that span.
Edge: Panthers
Special teams
After firing special teams coach Brian Murphy and replacing him with Richard Rodgers, the Panthers’ special teams struggled again Sunday in the loss to Tampa Bay. The unit failed on a fake punt attempt, and Captain Munnerlyn lost a fumble on a punt return in the contest. After making his first seven attempts this season, including a 5-for-5 performance at Chicago, kicker Justin Medlock has missed his last three field-goal attempts.
The Eagles don't have a kickoff return longer than 31 yards or a punt return longer than 20 yards this season. Punter Mat McBriar is tied for fifth in the league in with a 48.5-yard gross average, but the special teams unit as a whole has been downright awful in Philadelphia and it doesn’t look like things will improve this season.
Edge: Tie. Both teams are equally as bad.
Word on the street
“A lot of the players on defense have been turned over since I left, so I won’t have as great a feel for their defensive personnel as I would have. But as far as a general feel for what the atmosphere is going to be like and what they like to do, yes.” – Panthers defensive coordinator Sean McDermott after being asked if his previous experience serving on the Philadelphia coaching staff will give his defense an advantage Monday night.
“These guys are all competitors and that’s one of the inherent problems with concussion management — they want to play. They know the consequences and everything, but they want to play. We know he’s anxious to go out there and play but we have to be careful with these guys.” – Eagles trainer Rick Burkholder on Michael Vick’s concussion.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-27-12 12:44 AM |
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CNOTES
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Falcons Flying High Heading Into Thursday Night Football
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/29/2012 at 8:25 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: -3˝, O/U 55˝
Television: NFL Network
New Orleans Saints: The Saints (5-6 straight-up, 6-5 against the spread) saw their three-game winning streak end with a tough 31-21 home loss to San Francisco last week, and they will try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive by completing a sweep of the Falcons. New Orleans edged Atlanta 31-27 in Week 10 behind 298 passing yards and three touchdowns from quarterback Drew Brees and a resurgent rushing attack. Running backs Chris Ivory and Mark Ingram combined to total 139 yards on the ground against the Falcons, who will also have to deal with the return of Darren Sproles. Although he did not total any rushing yards against the 49ers in his first game back since suffering a broken hand, Sproles led the team with seven catches for 65 yards and did not play in the first meeting. The Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, and their last two road games have gone “under” the total.
Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons (10-1 SU and 6-4-1 ATS) just keep on winning despite their struggles to cover the spread. They are coming off a 24-23 victory at Tampa Bay last week to push on the final number as 1-point road favorites, dropping their ATS mark to 0-2-1 in the past three. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan continued his strong play through the air, throwing for 353 yards and one touchdown on 26-of-32 attempts. Ryan ranks second in the NFL in passing yardage with 3,425 yards and welcomed back a healthy Julio Jones, who had six catches for a game-high 147 yards with one TD against the Bucs. Jones had played through an ankle injury the week before against Arizona when he was limited to three catches for 33 yards, and he had four catches for 75 yards in the last meeting with New Orleans. The Falcons have seen the total go “under” in three of their last four games along with five of their past seven.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-29-12 04:30 PM |
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CNOTES
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Saints at Falcons
November 28, 2012
The Atlanta Falcons have enjoyed unprecedented success since owner Arthur Blank made a pair of surprising hires, plucking New England’s Director of College Scouting Thomas Dimitroff to be a General Manager for the first time and choosing Jacksonville defensive coordinator Mike Smith for his first head-coaching gig.
Before 2008, the Falcons had never enjoyed back-to-back winning seasons. On Smith’s watch, they have posted four consecutive winning seasons and are in the midst of a fifth straight. Smith has compiled a 53-22 straight-up record during the regular season.
However, a 0-3 record in the playoffs has stained an otherwise stellar run. Also, Atlanta has struggled to deal with its arch rival, New Orleans, which has won four in a row and seven of the last eight head-to-head meetings.
When these bitter NFC South rivals collide Thursday night at the Ga. Dome, Atlanta (10-1 straight up, 6-4-1 against the spread) will be looking to avenge its lone loss of the season, a 31-27 defeat to the Saints at the Superdome on Nov. 11. The Falcons were stymied on the goal line at crunch time in the loss as one-point road favorites.
This time around, most betting shops have installed Atlanta as a 3 ˝-point favorite with a total of 56. Gamblers can take New Orleans (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) on the money line for a plus-165 payout (risk $100 to win $165).
Atlanta survived a division road test last week, capturing a 24-23 win at Tampa Bay as a one-point road ‘chalk.’ Michael Turner scored the game-winning touchdown on a three-yard scamper on a quick pitch to the left with 7:55 remaining.
Matt Ryan shook off a five-interception debacle the previous week to complete 26-of-32 throws for 353 yards with one TD and one interception. The Boston College product hit Julio Jones with an 80-yard scoring strike in the third quarter. Jones finished with six receptions for 147 yards.
For the season, Ryan has connected on 68.5 percent of his passes for 3,425 yards with a 21/13 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Jones has made 53 catches for 853 yards and six TDs, while Roddy White has 67 receptions for 1,003 yards and four TDs. Tony Gonzalez has 69 catches for 712 yards and six TDs.
Despite those gaudy numbers, Atlanta needs to start running the ball more effectively if it wants to be successful in January. Turner has averaged only 3.5 yards per carry to date.
New Orleans lost its first four games, only to respond with five wins in its next six games going into last week’s home contests versus San Francisco. The 49ers cooled off the Saints by intercepting Drew Brees twice and returning those picks for touchdowns. They captured a 31-21 victory as one-point road ‘chalk.’
Brees threw for 267 yards and three TDs, but the pick-six’s proved costly. The Purdue product has thrown for 3,333 yards with a 33/11 TD-INT ratio.
The Saints’ woes have been tied to their leaky defense, a unit ranked 28th in the NFL in scoring defense. They give up 27.6 points per game. They are last in rush defense, surrendering 156.5 yards per game on the ground.
New Orleans WR Marques Colston and TE Jimmy Graham have both caught a team-high 55 receptions. Also, both have eight TD grabs apiece.
Atlanta is unbeaten in five home games this season, but it just 2-3 ATS at the Ga. Dome. During Smith’s five-year tenure, the Falcons have compiled a 19-10-1 ATS mark as home favorites.
New Orleans is 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in five road assignments this year.
The ‘under’ is 7-4 overall for the Falcons, 4-1 in their home games. Meanwhile, the Saints have seen the ‘over’ go 7-4 overall, 3-2 in their five road assignments. The ‘over’ is 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these clubs.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. Eastern on The NFL Network.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Former Falcon Curtis Lofton, who signed with the Saints in the offseason, says New Orleans doesn’t even really look at Atlanta as a big rival.
--Philadelphia has the NFL’s worst spread record, limping to an atrocious 1-9-1 spread record.
--Tampa Bay owns the NFL’s best spread ledger with an 8-2-1 ATS mark.
--The ‘over’ has hit in nine consecutive New England games. The Patriots have a total of 51 in Sunday’s game at Miami.
--There are six home underdogs on the Week 13 card: Rams (+7 vs. 49ers), Dolphins (+7.5 vs. New England), Chiefs (+3 vs. Panthers), Chargers (+2 vs. Bengals), Titans (+6 vs. Titans) and Redskins (+2.5 vs. Giants on Monday Night Football).
--The ‘under’ is an NFL-best 8-3 for both the Cardinals and Giants.
--The ‘over’ has cashed in seven straight head-to-head meetings between Seattle and Chicago. The Bears-Seahawks’ total for Sunday is 37 ˝ at Solider Field.
--After missing back-to-back games, Percy Harvin was upgraded to ‘probable’ on Wednesday for Sunday’s showdown at Green Bay. The Vikings are nine-point underdogs.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-29-12 04:36 PM |
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NFL Week 13 Preview: Saints at Falcons
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-6)
at ATLANTA FALCONS (10-1)
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -3, Total: 55.5
The Falcons try to avenge their lone defeat of the 2012 season when they host the Saints on Thursday night.
Atlanta hasn't been particularly sharp at home with a 2-3 ATS mark at Georgia Dome and failing to win any home game by more than six points. These teams played a very even contest in New Orleans in Week 10, a 31- 27 Saints win, with the Falcons outgaining New Orleans 454-440 and each team turning it over once. Atlanta had a chance to win it late, but couldn’t score in a goal-to-go situation. It was the Saints’ fourth straight victory, SU and ATS, over the Falcons. They’ve won by a field goal in their past two trips to Atlanta.
Who will prevail in this key NFC South showdown? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.
Brees has been outstanding versus the Falcons, throwing for 303 yards per game, 29 TD and 12 INT in 11 meetings since joining the Saints. He threw for 298 yards (9.3 YPA), 3 TD and 1 INT when these teams squared off in Week 10. Although the Falcons are an above-average pass defense (222 YPG, 13th in NFL), they have major injury concerns in the secondary with both CBs Asante Samuel (shoulder) and Dunta Robinson (head) questionable. Atlanta has allowed 275+ passing yards in three of its past four games, and Brees has thrown at least 2 TD in nine straight contests. One player Brees will surely lock eyes with is TE Jimmy Graham who has a touchdown in each of his five meetings with Atlanta, including a season-high 146 yards and 2 TD on Nov. 11. The Saints failed to reach 90 rushing yards in six of their first seven games, but began November with games of 140, 148 and 153 rushing yards before limited to 59 yards (on 21 carries) by San Francisco last week. Pierre Thomas leads the team with 341 rushing yards, but has just 11 carries over the past three weeks, including one against the Niners. Mark Ingram leads the team in rushing attempts, including 38 carries in this same three-game span, rushing for 67 yards on 16 attempts (4.2 YPC) in the win over Atlanta. The Falcons rushing defense has been poor (123 YPG, 22nd in NFL), but they have held three of the past five opponents to less than 100 rushing yards limiting Tampa Bay star rookie Doug Martin to just 50 yards on 21 carries last week. The Saints have fared so well on the road thanks to great ball protection, committing just two turnovers in the past four away tilts.
Ryan is just 2-6 in his career versus New Orleans, but he has thrown all over the Saints since the start of 2011, racking up 378 passing YPG, 6 TD and just 2 INT in these past three meetings. These are actually three of his top-five yardage games in his career (76 games), including his eye-popping, 411-yard career high three weeks ago. Ryan will most likely look for top WR Roddy White, who has 981 receiving yards and 6 TD in 11 career meetings with New Orleans. But he also has WR Julio Jones coming off a career-best 147 receiving yards last week in Tampa Bay, and TE Tony Gonzalez who exploded on the Saints for 11 catches, 125 yards and 2 TD three weeks ago. New Orleans has surrendered the third-most passing yards in the NFL (298 YPG), so expect the Falcons to attack mostly through the air. But even though top RB Michael Turner has been struggling (1.9 YPC in past three games), he could certainly find holes in the Saints NFL-worst rushing defense surrendering 157 YPG. Although Atlanta committed six turnovers in its most recent home game two weeks ago, the team has just 10 giveaways in its other 10 games combined. But the Falcons defense has forced just two turnovers in the past five contests, so this outcome should not be determined by miscues.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-29-12 04:42 PM |
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NFL
Long Sheet
Week 13
Thursday, November 29
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NEW ORLEANS (5 - 6) at ATLANTA (10 - 1) - 11/29/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NFL
Short Sheet
Week 13
Thursday, November 29, 2012
(TC) New Orleans at Atlanta, 8:25 ET NFL
New Orleans: 11-1 ATS in the second half of the season
Atlanta: 9-23 ATS at home off BB wins
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NFL
Week 13
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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 29
8:20 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 12 of New Orleans's last 16 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games
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NFL
Dunkel
Week 13
New Orleans at Atlanta
The Falcons look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 Thursday games. Atlanta is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 29
Game 301-302: New Orleans at Atlanta (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 133.547; Atlanta 138.869
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3 1/2); Under
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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 13
Saints (5-6) @ Falcons (10-1)—New Orleans (+2) beat Falcons 31-27 at home three weeks ago, Atlanta’s only loss this year, outrushing them 148-46 for 11th win in last 13 series games; Saints won last three visits here, all by exactly three points. Five of last six series games were decided by 4 or less points. Falcons’ last three games were also all decided by 4 or less points; they’re 5-0 at home, with all five wins by 6 or less points (2-3 as HF). Atlanta is 6-4-1 vs spread in last 11 games as a divisional home favorite. Saints are 5-1 when they score 28+ points, 0-5 when they don’t; they’re 2-2 as underdog this year, 1-1 on road. Atlanta allowed 28+ points in only two games, but one of them was against Saints. Last three NO games went over the total; five of last seven Falcon games stayed under. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season.
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NFL
Thursday, November 29
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Thursday Night Football: Saints at Falcons
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New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 56)
The Atlanta Falcons look to avenge their only loss of the season Thursday when they kick off Week 13 with a rematch with the NFC South-rival New Orleans Saints at the Georgia Dome.
Atlanta opened the season with eight straight victories before running into a hot New Orleans team that posted a 31-27 triumph at home on Nov. 11. Tight end Jimmy Graham caught seven passes for a career-high 146 yards and two touchdowns and Jabari Greer broke up a pass in the end zone on fourth-and-goal late in the fourth quarter to preserve the Saints' fourth win in five games.
Atlanta has squeaked out a pair of wins since the loss to New Orleans, posting a four-point triumph over Arizona before edging the Buccaneers 24-23 in Tampa Bay on Sunday. Seven of the Falcons' 10 victories have been by seven points or less. After opening the campaign with four consecutive setbacks, the Saints got back in playoff contention by winning five of their next six contests. But their postseason hopes took a hit Sunday as they fell to NFC West-leading San Francisco at home, 31-21.
TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.
LINE: The Falcons opened as 3.5-point favorites and have dropped to -3 at some markets. The 56 points total ties the highest total of the season and has dropped to 55.5 at some books.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (5-6, 6-5 ATS): New Orleans would have vaulted into sixth place - and a wild card spot - in the NFC with a win over San Francisco. Instead, it sits in 11th and faces two more division leaders over the next two weeks. Quarterback Drew Brees extended his NFL-record streak of consecutive games with a touchdown pass to 54 with three scoring tosses but also had two passes intercepted and returned for TDs. He now has 31 touchdown strikes this year, making him just the third QB in league history to reach the 30-TD plateau in five or more seasons. Brees joins Brett Favre (nine) and Peyton Manning (six) in that category. Brees (2008-12) and Favre (1994-98) are the only two to do it in five consecutive campaigns. Wide receiver Marques Colston notched a franchise-record 56th touchdown of his career Sunday. He had been tied with Deuce McAllister atop the franchise list.
ABOUT THE FALCONS (10-1, 6-4-1 ATS): Sunday's margin of victory could have been larger had Matt Bryant not struggled. The kicker missed a 22-yard field-goal attempt as time expired in the first half and failed to convert a 48-yarder with eight seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. It was the second time in four games Bryant has missed a pair of attempts. Wide receiver Julio Jones showed no signs of injury against Tampa Bay, catching six passes for 147 yards - including an 80-yard touchdown reception in the third quarter. Jones had been limited in practice last week due to a sore right ankle. Quarterback Matt Ryan has now led five game-winning drives in the fourth quarter this season and 21 during his five-year career. Running back Michael Turner capped the latest one Sunday, scoring on a 3-yard run with 7:55 remaining.
TRENDS:
* Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Saints have won four straight and 11 of the last 13 meetings between the division rivals.
2. Graham and Atlanta's Tony Gonzalez became the first pair of tight ends to have at least 120 yards receiving and two TDs in the same game.
3. Gonzalez caught a pair of scoring passes in the first meeting, the first making him the first tight end in NFL history with 100 touchdown receptions.
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NFL
Thursday, November 29
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Tale of the tape: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
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Time is running out on the Saints, as they travel to Atlanta to face the rival Falcons Thursday night. Find out how this matchup breaks down in all three facets of the game with our tale of the tape.
Offense
New Orleans was held under 28 points for the first time in four games against San Francisco last Sunday. Drew Brees threw for only 267 yards in the loss, but did find the end zone three times to go along with two interceptions. Brees has thrown 11 picks already this season after tossing only 14 all of last year. Perhaps he's trying to do too much, with the Saints ground game stuck in neutral. They ran for just 59 yards on 21 attempts last Sunday, and are averaging 91.5 rush yards per game on the season.
Atlanta has been the picture of consistency on offense this season, scoring at least 23 points in all but one of its 11 games. Matt Ryan has thrown for over 300 yards in four consecutive games, while Jacquizz Rodgers appears to be slowly overtaking Michael Turner as the team's feature running back. With Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez enjoying tremendous success, the Falcons’ ground game has become a bit of an afterthought this season.
Edge: Atlanta
Defense
Not surprisingly, we've seen the Saints defense take a step back in the post-Gregg Williams era. They did appear to be gaining some traction, having held their last three opponents to a combined 57 points before giving up 31 against the 49ers. Their defense - or lack thereof - is a big reason why the Saints have been outgained in terms of total yardage in each of their last seven contests. Note that New Orleans has held its own defensively in this series, giving up 24 points or less in regulation time in five of its last six meetings with Atlanta.
The Falcons haven't been healthy on the defensive side of the football for much of the season, but have still put up some solid numbers. They've been gashed by the run at times, allowing 4.8 yards per rush on the year, but have made up for it with a secondary that allows just seven yards per pass play. Asante Samuel, Dunta Robinson, and Peria Jerry have all missed practice time this week, but at least two of the three are expected to play Thursday night.
Edge: Atlanta
Special teams
The Saints have been atrocious on punt returns this season, averaging a paltry 5.8 yards per return. It's unlikely we'll see them break through in that department against a Falcons special teams unit that allows only 7.6 ypr. The good news is, the Saints’ kick return game has been much better, gaining a whopping 27.9 ypr. Specialist Courtney Roby has been a big contributor. Kicker Garrett Hartley hasn't been busy, converting on only nine of 12 field goal attempts.
Like the Saints, the Falcons have struggled returning punts, but have performed above the league average on kickoffs. They'll go against a New Orleans special teams unit that allows close to nine yards per punt return, and 22 yards on kickoffs. Few kickers have been as reliable as Matt Bryant this season. He's had a heavy workload, and has made the most of it, converting 26-of-31 field goal attempts.
Edge: Atlanta
Word on the street
"It makes it more juicy. It makes the rivalry better. And I like competing against these guys. We always know we're gonna get a good game." -- Saints safety Roman Harper referring to the trash talk leading up to this week's game.
"Ten and one is great, but I'll tell you what I've said since the beginning of the season: We're just jockeying for position. We just want to put ourselves in the best position, playing the best football." -- Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez speaking about his team's NFC-best record.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-29-12 04:47 PM |
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