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CNOTES
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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 12
Texans (9-1) @ Lions (4-6)—Short week plus travel for Houston team that has 3-game division lead with six to play, but is also playing for home field in playoffs. Wade Phillips coached in Dallas, so he should know how to deal with short prep time for Turkey Day game. Schaub passed for 504 yards in dome last week (8.8 ypa) after they struggled to 13-6 win in elements in Chicago week before (88 PY), so home field means more to them than most. Texans are 4-0 on road, with all wins by 6+ points; they covered seven of last ten tries as a road favorite. Detroit lost last five Turkey Day games, allowing average of 40 ppg; they lost to division rivals last two weeks, allowing 34-24 points. Lions are 15-10-2 vs spread in last 27 games vs AFC opponents, 1-1 this year; since start of LY, they’re 0-2 as home underdogs. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 5-2 vs spread, 1-1 on road. Four of last five Texan games in a dome, three of last four Detroit games went over total.
Redskins (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5)—RGIII returns to Texas (went to college at Baylor) with Redskin squad that snapped 3-game skid with 31-6 rout of Eagles last week; Skins are 2-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-4-15 (Steelers) points. Dallas was gifted with OT win last week; 10 of their 30 first downs came via Cleveland penalties. Cowboys are 3-14 vs spread in last 17 games as home favorite, 0-3 this year; they’re 2-2 at home, beating Bucs by 6, Browns by 3. Pokes led at halftime in one of last seven games, but they’ve also only turned ball over once last three weeks (+2) after having 19 giveaways in first seven games (-11). Redskins scored 40-28-23 points in three games on artificial turf (1-2), with underdog covering all three games- they’ve run ball for 151-169 yards in last two games. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in NFC East divisional games; home favorites are 1-3. Last three Washington games stayed under the total.
Patriots (7-3) @ Jets (4-6)—Key indicator for Jets is 3rd down conversions; they’re 41-87 (47.1%) on 3rd down in games they’ve played well (4-2), 13-53 (24.5%) in four stinkers they played, losing all four by average of 23 points. In three of Jets’ four wins, they had +3 or +4 turnover ratio; Dolphins are only team they’ve beaten (23-20, OT) without winning TO ratio. Patriots are just trying to outscore people; in last two games, foes converted 15-25 on 3rd down, scoring 31-24 points, but NE scored 37-59 points. Absence of Gronkowski (broken arm) is a problem. Jets are 2-3 at home; since ’08, they’ve covered three of four as a home underdog. Since 2003, Pats are 16-6-1 vs spread as road favorite in divisional games; they’re 2-2 in true road games this year (beat Rams in London), with both losses by point (Ravens/Seattle), wins by 21-24. Home teams are 2-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games; home dogs are 0-2. Last eight New England games went over, three of last four Jet games stayed under.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 02:46 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
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NFL
Thursday, November 22
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Texans at Lions: What bettors need to know
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Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 50.5)
The Detroit Lions have hosted a Thanksgiving Day game for 73 years. It has not gone their way recently. The Lions will be looking to snap an eight-game losing streak on Thanksgiving when they host the Houston Texans on Thursday. The Texans needed overtime to squeeze past lowly Jacksonville on Sunday but own the best record in the AFC at 9-1. Detroit has dropped two straight and sits in a familiar position - last in the NFC North.
The Lions lost to the Green Bay Packers last Thanksgiving - a game most notable for Ndamukong Suh’s stomp of an offensive lineman that ended up earning him a two-game suspension. Suh and company rank in the top 10 in the league defensively as far as yardage is concerned but sit in the bottom third in scoring defense, thanks in part to an offense that has left it in bad position with turnovers. The Lions can’t afford to do that against the Texans, who broke out for 43 points on Sunday and have yet to lose on the road.
TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: Houston opened as big as 3.5 with most books dealing -3, which has remained steady. The total is set at 51 after moving up from 49.
THANKSGIVING HISTORY: Detroit is right there with mashed potatoes as a Thanksgiving staple. The Lions are 11-16 SU and ATS and 14-13 over/under on Thanksgiving since 1985, including going 0-8 SU and ATS since 2004 with a 2-6 over/under count in that span. This will be Houston's first Thanksgiving Day game in franchise history.
ABOUT THE TEXANS (9-1, 7-3 ATS): After winning two straight ugly games with its defense, Houston lit it up offensively on Sunday, totaling 640 yards. Matt Schaub passed for a career-high 527 yards and five touchdowns and Andre Johnson broke out of a slump in a big way with 273 yards and a TD on 14 receptions. The Texans had held their previous three opponents to 13 points or less and are entering the most difficult stretch of the schedule. Houston will play its next three games on the road, with trips to Tennessee and New England coming after Detroit. The Texans struggled in pass coverage against Jaguars backup Chad Henne on Sunday and will have to get that fixed before facing the Lions, who lead the league in passing offense.
ABOUT THE LIONS (4-6, 4-6 ATS): Passing is the one thing the offense has done consistently well this season, though quarterback Matt Stafford has only 12 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Stafford and Calvin Johnson have been able to pile up the yardage but have struggled in the red zone. The Lions had to settle for two field goals inside the 10-yard line and Stafford had a pass intercepted in the end zone in Sunday’s 24-20 home loss to the Packers. Johnson caught the lone touchdown pass in that contest but, like Stafford, he also lost a fumble. Detroit might have to run the table to make the playoffs for a second straight season, and a schedule that includes Houston, Atlanta, Chicago and Green Bay over the last six games makes that a difficult proposition
TRENDS:
* Texans are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
* Lions are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Texans last six road games.
* Under is 7-3 in Lions last 10 Thursday games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Lions OT Jeff Backus left Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury and is questionable for Thursday. He has started 186 straight games.
2. Schaub’s 527-yard performance tied for the second-biggest passing day in NFL history. Norm Van Brocklin has held the record of 554 yards since Sept. 28, 1951.
3. Texans RB Arian Foster lost a fumble for the first time this season against the Jaguars.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 02:51 PM |
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CNOTES
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NFL
Thursday, November 22
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Redskins at Cowboys: What bettors need to know
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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48)
While hardly aesthetically pleasing, the Dallas Cowboys have put together a pair of wins to position themselves in the discussion for a potential postseason berth. The talk could get louder should the Cowboys topple the Washington Redskins on Thanksgiving when the NFC East rivals meet in Arlington, Texas. Dallas moved one game behind the division-leading New York Giants after posting a 23-20 overtime victory over Cleveland on Sunday.
Rookie Robert Griffin III had a much easier time of it on Sunday as the reigning Heisman Trophy winner tossed a season-best four touchdowns in a 31-6 triumph over reeling Philadelphia. Washington snapped a three-game losing skid and preserved its slim postseason aspirations. The Redskins will look to gain ground in the division as they continue their stretch of playing five NFC East rivals over the final seven weeks of the season.
TV: 4:15 p.m. ET, FOX.
LINE: Dallas opened as high as -4 but most books are dealing 3.5. The total has moved from 47 to 48 points.
THANKSGIVING HISTORY: Dallas is a mainstay of the Thanksgiving schedule, going 15-12 SU and 16-11 ATS (13-14 over/under) on Thanksgiving since 1985, including a 5-1 SU and ATS record since 2006. Washington is 0-3 SU and ATS on Thanksgiving Day since 1985 with a 2-1 over/under record in those game.
ABOUT THE REDSKINS (4-6, 5-5 ATS): Veteran wide receiver Santana Moss found the end zone for the fourth time in as many weeks after splitting double coverage to reel in a 61-yard scoring strike from Griffin. Moss, who matched a career high with six touchdowns this season, has traditionally torched the Cowboys (78 receptions, 1,125 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games). After failing to force a turnover in its previous two games, Washington did so three times during the first half on Sunday.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (5-5, 4-6 ATS): Wide receiver Dez Bryant benefited from the pass-heavy offense to reel in 12 catches for a career-high 145 yards and a touchdown. Tony Romo and the mercurial Bryant will likely be licking their chops when they face Washington's porous 29th-ranked pass defense, which is yielding 289.2 yards per contest. With DeMarco Murray (foot) sidelined for a fifth straight game, Felix Jones matched a career high with his third touchdown run. Jones injured his knee late in Sunday's game but is expected to play on Thanksgiving.
TRENDS:
* Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Dallas.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Underdog is 22-6 ATS in their last 28 meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Washington S Brandon Meriweather made his season debut versus Philadelphia after being sidelined with a left knee injury. Meriweather, who intercepted rookie Nick Foles, tore his ACL and is lost for the season.
2. After leading the league with 13 interceptions through seven games, Romo has four touchdowns and no picks over his last three games.
3. Dallas has won six of the last seven meetings - including a season sweep in 2011 by a total of five points.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 02:52 PM |
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CNOTES
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NFL
Thursday, November 22
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Patriots at Jets: What bettors need to know
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New England Patriots at New York Jets (+6.5, 48)
Riding a four-game winning streak, the New England Patriots have to prepare for Thursday night’s game against the host New York Jets without tight end Rob Gronkowski. In the midst of another dominant season Gronkowski broke his forearm in the Patriots’ win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. Gronkowski underwent surgery Monday morning and could miss the rest of the regular season. With him sidelined, the Patriots may look to run the ball more against the Jets, who are sixth in the NFL against the pass but rank 30th vs. the run, giving up an average of 141 rushing yards.
The Jets finally got back on the right path in beating the St. Louis Rams to end their three-game slide and rebound from two straight blowout losses. New York needs to go on a winning streak to get back in the playoff picture. It trails New England by three games in the AFC East standings but is just two out of a congested wild card race.
TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.
WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the low 44s. Winds are expected to blow south at 1 mph.
LINE: New England opened as a touchdown favorite but was bet down as low as 5.5 before buyback came back on the Patriots. The total has moved from 50.5 to 48 points.
THANKSGIVING HISTORY: The Jets and Patriots have only played three Thanksgiving Day games each since 1985. New England is 2-1 SU and ATS and 2-1 over/under in those games while New York is 1-2 SU and ATS with a 1-2 over/under count.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (7-3, 6-4 ATS): The loss of Gronkowski is a major setback. Fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez has missed six games overall and three straight with a nagging ankle injury. Hernandez has been listed as questionable for several weeks and played just twice since sustaining the injury early in Week 2. Although New England expects him to be ready for Thursday, how well he’ll play is uncertain and tight ends have been a crucial part of the Patriots’ top-ranked offense. New England scored 59 points in its win against Indianapolis, the second time this season it has topped 50 points. The rest of the NFL has only done it twice.
ABOUT THE JETS (4-6, 6-4 ATS): New York finally got its offense in gear in its 27-13 win at St. Louis. Reserve running back Bilal Powell ran for the first two touchdowns of his career and QB Mark Sanchez was efficient and turnover-free. Sanchez ranks last among starters in completion percentage but fired a scoring pass against the Rams and completed 75 percent of his passes. The Jets nearly won at New England in Week 7. New York scored 13 straight points in the fourth quarter to take a three-point lead with 1:37 to play. But the Jets watched Tom Brady move the team into field goal position to tie the game and New England won it in overtime with another field goal.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Patriots are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings in New York.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in New York.
* Road team is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Jets PK Nick Folk booted a pair of 51-yard field goals against the Rams. He has missed just three of 17 attempts this season, two of which were blocked.
2. Gronkowski scored twice against the Jets earlier in the season.
3. Sanchez threw for a season-high 328 yards in the 29-26 loss at New England.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 02:54 PM |
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CNOTES
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Clemson Faces Gonzaga In Thursday's Old Spice Classic
Clemson Tigers vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
College Basketball Betting Preview
Date: 11/22/2012 at 9:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: NA
Television: ESPN2
Clemson Tigers: The first day of the Old Spice Classic in Orlando concludes with the Tigers (2-0 straight-up, 1-0 against the spread) taking on the 'Zags. Coach Brad Brownell begins his third season at Clemson with a search for new guards to run the team after Andre Young and Tanner Smith, last year's top scorers, departed. The Tigers do have experience in the paint, however, with Milton Jennings and Devin Booker back in the fold. Clemson opened with a 77-44 skate past Presbyterian in an unlined affair, then followed up with a 72-55 victory at Furman as 11-point chalk. Sophomore Rod Hall has assumed the duties at point and gives the Tigers solid perimeter defense. Clemson ranks among the early leaders in protecting the basketball with just 14 turnovers combined in the two games so far. The Tigers are also 25th in the nation, hitting 51.3 percent of their shots from the field.
Gonzaga Bulldogs: Coach Mark Few has the Bulldogs (3-0 SU and ATS) off and running with wins and point-spread covers in all three games to begin the 2012-13 campaign. Currently ranked 16th and 17th in the USA Today Coaches and AP polls, respectively, Gonzaga's three victories have been by at least 34 points, including a 34-point rout vs. West Virginia as an 11-point favorite on Nov. 12. The 'Dogs appear to have found a replacement for Robert Sacre's big presence inside as Przemek Karnowski has taken over and leads the team with 16 points per game. Six players are scoring at least 11 points per game, including Kevin Pangos on the point. This is a very talented and deep frontcourt with Elias Harris and Guy Landry Edi joining Karnowski inside, and the Bulldogs will also have 7-footer Kelly Olynyk available for this game after he served a three-game suspension.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 03:02 PM |
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CNOTES
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NCAAB
Long Sheet
Thursday, November 22
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W VIRGINIA (0 - 1) vs. MARIST (1 - 2) - 11/22/2012, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
W VIRGINIA is 94-67 ATS (+20.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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VANDERBILT (1 - 1) vs. DAVIDSON (1 - 2) - 11/22/2012, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANDERBILT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
VANDERBILT is 2-0 against the spread versus DAVIDSON over the last 3 seasons
VANDERBILT is 2-0 straight up against DAVIDSON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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UTEP (1 - 1) vs. OKLAHOMA (2 - 0) - 11/22/2012, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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CLEMSON (2 - 0) vs. GONZAGA (3 - 0) - 11/22/2012, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEMSON is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
CLEMSON is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
GONZAGA is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) in road games in all tournament games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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MISSOURI (3 - 0) vs. STANFORD (3 - 1) - 11/22/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
STANFORD is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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DUKE (3 - 0) vs. MINNESOTA (4 - 0) - 11/22/2012, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 156-116 ATS (+28.4 Units) after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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MEMPHIS (2 - 0) vs. VA COMMONWEALTH (2 - 1) - 11/22/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 187-141 ATS (+31.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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LOUISVILLE (3 - 0) vs. N IOWA (3 - 0) - 11/22/2012, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N IOWA is 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1997.
N IOWA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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PACIFIC (1 - 2) vs. XAVIER (3 - 0) - 11/22/2012, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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DREXEL (1 - 2) vs. ST MARYS-CA (3 - 0) - 11/22/2012, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST MARYS-CA is 40-20 ATS (+18.0 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.
DREXEL is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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RICE (1 - 2) vs. GEORGIA TECH (2 - 0) - 11/22/2012, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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DRAKE (1 - 1) vs. CALIFORNIA (3 - 0) - 11/22/2012, 11:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DRAKE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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ORAL ROBERTS (2 - 1) vs. LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT (2 - 1) - 11/22/2012, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORAL ROBERTS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT is 25-45 ATS (-24.5 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997.
LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT is 68-98 ATS (-39.8 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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CHARLOTTE (3 - 0) vs. TEXAS ST (2 - 1) - 11/22/2012, 11:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 35-55 ATS (-25.5 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997.
CHARLOTTE is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in road games in all tournament games since 1997.
CHARLOTTE is 79-107 ATS (-38.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 03:04 PM |
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CNOTES
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Posts: 12040
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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Thursday, November 22
Orlando tournament
--West Virginia looked awful in 84-50 debacle at Gonzaga 10 days ago, expect better showing here; Huggins has young team that will improve as season goes on. Marist has all five starters back from 14-18 team, but a 1-2 start includes losses to Stony Brook/Colgate, not a good sign.
-- Davidson has 5 starters back from 25-8 team, but lost at New Mexico, Milwaukee to start season- they lost to Vanderbilt last two years, 87-83 at home LY, 80-52 in Nashville in '11. Commodores lost all 5 starters on LY's 25-11 team- they got crushed 74-48 at Oregon in only road game.
-- Oklahoma has 5 starters back from 15-16 team; they won at a decent Tex-Arlington team 63-59 last game. Big X road favorites are 4-5 vs the spread. UTEP lost last game by 21 at Arizona; they're starting three sophomores. C-USA road underdogs of 6 or less points are 5-3.
-- Gonzaga has 4 starters back from 26-7 team; they won first three tilts, all by 34+ points, including 84-50 win over West Virginia. Clemson has 5 freshman/6 sophs, very young team. ACC road teams are 12-7 against spread, 5-3 as road dogs. WCC favorites are 6-8, 0-2 on road.
Atlantis tournament
-- Missouri lost 4 starters from LY, but UConn transfer Oriakhi is stud inside; Tigers beat three stiffs to start season, go up in class vs Stanford squad that got upset at home by Belmont in last game. SEC favorites are 12-9 vs spread, 2-4 on road. Pac-12 road underdogs are 5-4.
-- Duke is shooting 55% inside arc, 38% outside it in 3-0 start; they have 4 starters back from 27-7 team, already have 75-68 win over Kentucky on neutral floor. Minnesota is 4-0, with 15-point win over Richmond, a pretty good team. Big Dozen road underdogs are 2-6 against spread.
-- Memphis has 4 starters back from 26-9 team; they start four juniors, but only beat two stiffs so far. VCU lost by hoop to Wichita; they have 4 starters back from 29-7 team. CAA single digit underdogs are 9-3 vs the spread. C-USA favorites are 5-7 vs spread, 2-2 away from home.
-- Louisville is 3-0 with wins by 26+ points; they've got three starters back from 30-10 team, have forced turnovers on 32.6% of possessions so far this season. Northern Iowa has 4 starters back from 20-14 team; they've beaten three stiffs, including 84-81 win over Toledo.
Anaheim tournament
-- Pacific has 5 starters back from 11-19 team; they lost first two games vs D-I teams, by 5 to Fresno, 2 to Oral Roberts. Xavier lost all 5 of its tarters from 23-12 team, but they whacked Butler already. Underdogs from Big West are 10-7 on road. Atlantic 16 road favorites are 5-3.
-- 1-2 Drexel's first three games were all decided by 2 points or in OT, a shaky start for team expected to win CAA; Dragons have 4 starters back from 29-7 team. St Mary's has 4 starters back from 27-6 team; 6 of their 7 rotation guys are juniors/seniors. WCC favorites are 7-7, 0-2 on road.
-- Rice was decimated by transfers this summer; they've got one starter back from LY, have 5 frosh/sophs in top six players, already lost by 13 to St Thomas, whoever that is. Georgia Tech has 3 freshmen starting on team that has all 5 starters back, so they've upgraded talent.
-- Cal Bears have 3 starters back from 24-10 team, are 3-0 with 11-point win at Denver, a decent win- Crabbe is one of best guards in west. Drake has 4 staters back from 18-16 team; 5 of their top 6 guys are freshman/ sophomores. MVC road underdogs are 7-2 against the spread.
Great Alaskan Shootout
-- Oral Roberts has 3 starters back from 27-7 team; they lost at UTEP by 20, won by hoop at Pacific, as they get ready for first season in new league, Southland. LMU has 3 starters back from 21-13 team; they lost first road game by 15 at SMU. WCC underdogs are 4-5 vs spread.
-- Charlotte has good recruits to go with 3 returning starters from 13-17 team; they start 2 frosh/3 sophs, whacked three stiffs to start this year. Texas State lost to SMU at home by 3; they've got 2 starters back from 13-17 team. WAC underdogs are 6-10, 4-6 away from home.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 03:06 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12040
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Turkey Tips
November 21, 2012
**Texans at Lions**
--Before sitting down to Thanksgiving lunch, gamblers will need to place their bets for this 12:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff at Ford Field in the Motor City. As of late Wednesday afternoon, most books had Houston (9-1 straight up, 7-3 against the spread) favored by three with a minus-120 price. The total was 50 ½ points. Bettors can take the Lions on the money line for a plus-155 payout (risk $100 to win $155).
--After losing three of its first four games, Detroit (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) won three of its next four and appeared poised to stay in postseason contention. However, the Lions have dropped back-to-back game and are now in desperation mode. They lost a 24-20 nail-biter vs. Green Bay last Sunday as 3 ½-point home underdogs. The 44 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 53 ½-point total.
--In the loss to the Packers, Detroit took a 20-14 advantage with 4:25 remaining on a 27-yard field goal by Jason Hanson. However, Aaron Rodgers drove Green Bay down the field on a six-play touchdown drive to take the lead back. After committing a turnover, the Lions failed to cover when the Packers got a 39-yard field goal from Mason Crosby with 19 ticks left. Matthew Stafford threw two interceptions, including a 72-yard pick-six, and also coughed up a fumble. The Lions have given up seven touchdowns on returns this season, including punts, fumbles and interceptions.
--Houston was fortunate to win outright as a 15-point home favorite vs. Jacksonville last week. The Texans twice trailed by double-digit margins in the second half, but they nonetheless railed to capture a 43-37 overtime win over the Jaguars. With 2:01 left in OT, Matt Schaub found Andre Johnson for a 48-yard scoring strike to provide the winning points. The Jags took the cash and the 80 combined points easily went ‘over’ the 40 ½-point tally.
--Schaub completed 43-of-55 passes for 527 yards with five TD passes and two interceptions against Jacksonville. Johnson hauled in 14 receptions for 273 yards. For the season, Schaub has 18 TD passes compared to eight interceptions. Johnson has 60 catches for 870 yards and three TDs.
--Houston RB Arian Foster has rushed for 949 yards and 10 TDs, but he’s been limited to a 3.8 yards-per-carry average. He rushed for 77 yards on 28 carries against the Jags.
--Houston is third in the NFL in scoring, averaging 29.3 points per game. Also, the Texans are fourth in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up only 18.0 PPG.
--Houston has won all four of its road assignments, compiling a 3-1 spread record. The Texans own an 8-7 spread record as road favorites during Gary Kubiak’s seven-year tenure.
--To get an idea of how mistake-prone Detroit has been this season, consider these stats: The Lions are second in the NFL in total offense, averaging 401.7 yards per contest. However, they are just 15th in scoring with a 23.6 PPG average. In a similar vein, Jim Schwartz’s squad is 10th in total defense but 23rd in scoring defense (24.6 PPG).
--During Schwartz’s four-year tenure, Detroit has gone 7-6 ATS as a home underdog. The Lions are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS at home this year.
--Totals have been an overall wash for Houston (5-5), but the ‘under’ is 3-1 in its four road games. Meanwhile, the Lions have watched the ‘over’ go 6-3-1 overall, 2-2 in their home games.
--CBS will provide television coverage.
**Redskins at Cowboys**
--Most spots are listing Dallas (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) as a three-point ‘chalk’ with a minus-120 price. The total is 48 and the Redskins are plus-155 to win outright (risk $100 to win $155).
--Dallas lost for the fourth time in five games at Atlanta on Nov. 4, but the Cowboys have responded with two straight victories to get back into the hunt. They are only one game back of the 6-4 Giants for the lead in the NFC East.
--Jason Garrett’s club won a 23-20 decision over Cleveland in overtime last week. Dan Bailey’s 32-yard field goal with two seconds left in regulation forced the extra session, and then Bailey buried a 38-yarder for the win with only 2:01 left in OT. The Cowboys failed to cover the number as seven-point home favorites, while the 43 combined points slipped ‘under’ the 43 ½-point total.
--Dallas veteran QB Tony Romo has completed 67.3 percent of his throws for 2,916 passing yards, but he has a mediocre 13/13 TD-INT ratio. Jason Witten is his favorite target, bringing in 73 catches for 636 yards and one TD.
--Dallas has won outright in two of its four home games, but it is an abysmal 0-4 ATS.
--Washington (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) ended a three-game losing slide by pounding Philadelphia by a 31-6 count as a 3 ½-point home favorite. Robert Griffin III produced a spectacular performance, connecting on 14-of-15 passes for 200 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. RG3 also rushed for 84 yards on 12 carries.
--RG3 has been ‘as advertised,’ completing 67.1 percent of his passes for 2,193 yards with a 12/3 TD-INT ratio. The Baylor product has also rushed for 624 yards and six TDs.
--Washington has lost three of its five road games but has managed a 3-2 spread record. The Redskins are 3-1 ATS as road underdogs this year, 11-7 ATS in such spots during Mike Shanahan’s three-year tenure.
--Dallas has won three straight and six of the last seven head-to-head meetings with Washington. However, the Redskins have covered the number in the last four encounters. In addition, the ‘Skins are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Dallas.
--The ‘under’ is 6-4 overall for Dallas, 2-2 in its home games.
--Totals have been an overall wash (5-5) for the ‘Skins, but they have seen the ‘over’ cash at a 3-2 clip in their five road contests.
--The ‘under’ is on a 5-2 run in the last seven games of this storied rivalry.
--Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. Eastern on FOX.
**Patriots at Jets**
--Most books are listing New England (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) as a seven-point favorite with a total of 48. Bettors can take the Jets to win outright for a plus-260 payout (risk $100 to win $260).
--Bill Belichick’s squad has won four in a row and six of its last seven, including last week’s 59-24 shellacking of Indianapolis as a 10-point home ‘chalk.’ Tom Brady threw for 331 yards and three TDs without an interception. Rob Gronkowski made seven receptions for 137 yards and two TDs, but he broke his forearm in the fourth quarter and will miss the next several games.
--On the bright side for the Pats, they’ll get their other stud tight end, Aaron Hernandez, back this week after he missed the last three games with an ankle injury.
--Brady is enjoying another sensational season, throwing for 2,976 yards with a 21/3 TD-INT ratio.
--New York (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) stopped the bleeding of a three-game losing streak with last week’s 37-23 win at St. Louis as a 3 ½-point underdog. Bilal Powell rushed for a pair of touchdowns and Marc Sanchez had one TD pass without committing a turnover.
--For the season, Sanchez is completing only 53.5 percent of his passes with an 11/9 TD-INT ratio.
--Since its first two games went ‘under,’ New England has seen the ‘over’ cash in eight consecutive games. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the Pats’ five road assignments. They are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS on the road.
--Totals have been an overall wash (5-5) for the Jets, but the ‘under’ is 3-2 in their home games. They are 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS at home.
--During Rex Ryan’s tenure, the Jets own a 3-1 spread record as home underdogs.
--The ‘over’ has hit in six straight head-to-head meetings between the Jets and Patriots.
--NBC will have the telecast at 8:20 p.m. Eastern.
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Total Talk - Thanksgiving
November 21, 2012
Due to the Thanksgiving Day slate this Thursday, bettors will be able to lock and load early in Week 12. We’ll recap last week’s action and go over the rest of the slate in our weekly Total Talk installment on Saturday. For now, let’s break down the three games on tap.
Houston at Detroit: The first game on the board isn’t an easy one and you could make sound arguments for either the ‘over’ or the ‘under.’ The opening line was 48 ½ and it’s been steamed up to 50 ½ at most outfits. Most gamblers have short-term memory and Houston’s 43-37 overtime win last Sunday over Jacksonville is probably in their head. Quarterback Matt Schaub and wide receiver Andre Johnson both had career days for the Texans, yet they only put up 43 and nine of those points came in the extra session. What was very surprising was the play of Houston’s defense, which was diced up by Jaguars QB Chad Henne. Keep in mind that Henne did most of his damage on three plays, two of them going for long touchdowns (67, 81 yards).
Fortunately for the Texans, they won’t be playing a consistent attack this week. Detroit looks like it has firepower on paper with QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson, but this offense lacks a running game and any rhythm. At home, the Lions are averaging 24 points per game. If there is hope for Detroit’s offense to get going, you can look at its outputs against AFC South clubs. The Lions put up 41 against the Titans and 31 against the Jaguars this season, which was the two highest point totals for them this season. Despite the bad performance last week, the Texans’ defense is still ranked fourth in the league (299 YPG, 18 PPG) and they’ve stepped up on the road, allowing a total of 55 points in four games. After scoring 27 and 31 in its first two road games, Houston has only mustered up 23 and 13 the past two outings as visitors.
On Thanksgiving, Detroit has watched the ‘under’ produce a 7-3 mark the past 10 seasons. The Lions have also lost nine of those games during that span.
Washington at Dallas: After watching its first four games of the season go ‘over’ the number, the Redskins have seen the ‘under’ rebound with a 5-1 mark in the last six games. Washington saw some 50-point totals posted early, which was a little surprising when you have a rookie quarterback (Robert Griffin III) under center. RG3 has proven to be effective, but the main reason for the high numbers is the Redskins defense, which is playing with crutches. Washington was hurt by the injury bug again last week as the unit lost safety Brandon Meriweather (knee) for the season. Also, the leader of the defense, linebacker London Fletcher (ankle), is ‘questionable’ too.
Dallas was hoping to get running back DeMarco Murray (foot) back in the lineup but his status is ‘doubtful’ for Thursday. That’s probably a good thing if you’re leaning ‘over’ because the Cowboys will most likely let Tony Romo attack an already decimated secondary if he can stay on his feet. Similar to Detroit, the ‘Boys look explosive on paper but the results aren’t there because the offensive line isn’t great. The best outing was 38 points against Philadelphia a couple weeks ago, and 21 came from the defense and special teams.
Last year, the total spilt in the two regular season meetings between the pair as they combined for 34 and 51 points. The total opened at 47 for this game and was bet up to 48. Dallas watched last year’s holiday matchup go ‘under’ in its win over Miami (20-19). The one thing you can say about the ‘Boys on Thanksgiving is that they do score and put on a show. It’s been 11 years since Dallas has been held under 20 points on Turkey Day.
New England at N.Y. Jets: This number opened at 50 ½ and is now being offered anywhere between 48 and 49 points, depending where you shop. Considering the Patriots can get to this number themselves, it’s certainly hard to argue an ‘under’ play here. New England’s offense leads the league in points scored (35.8) and yards (431.9) and the defense is starting to turn be opportunistic as well. Last week, the Pats ripped the Colts 59-24 and 21 of the points came from a pair of pick-six touchdowns and a punt return. After seeing the first two games of the season go 'under' the Pats have watched the 'over' cash in eight straight weeks.
Offensively, the Pats high-powered attack will be missing a key part this week against the Jets. Tight end Rob Gronkowski injured his forearm in last week’s win over the Colts. He’s out this week and possibly a few more games as well. Fortunately for the Pats, TE Aaron Hernandez is expected to return from an ankle injury. The offensive line also has some key injuries, in particular Logan Mankins and Dan Connolly. You couldn’t tell they missed last week’s game against Indy, who has a much better pass rush than the Jets.
New York gave New England a scare in mid-October, but fell short in a 29-26 defeat. QB Mark Sanchez played well (328 yards, 68%) in the loss despite having limited receivers and no running game. Including the first meeting this season, the ‘over’ has now cashed in six straight in this series.
The last few weeks of Total Talk, we’ve been hitting on rematch games between divisional opponents. So far this season, the ‘over’ has gone 8-2 (80%) when teams meet in the second divisional battle. Before you run to the counter and bang the ‘over’ on this game, make a note that the ‘under’ has gone 24-10 (71%) in games played in primetime slots this season. Lastly, since the NFL added a third game on Thanksgiving Day during the 2006 season, the ‘under’ has gone 4-2 in the six installments, including three in a row.
Fearless Predictions
If you’re reading this piece, then you’re probably betting and for that, we say be thankful that you can. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!
Best Over: Washington-Dallas 48
Best Under: Houston-Detroit 50 1/2
Best Team Total: Over Dallas 25 1/2
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Washington-Dallas 39
Under Houston-Detroit 59 ½
Under New England-N.Y. Jets 57
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 04:24 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12040
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Thanksgiving Day Trends
November 20, 2012
Trends for Detroit-Houston
-- The Lions have dropped eight straight on Thanksgiving Day
-- Detroit has seen the 'under' go 7-3 in the last 10 on Thanksgiving Day
-- Houston has never played on Thanksgiving Day
Trends for Dallas-Washington
-- Dallas owns a 29-15-1 record on Thanksgiving Day
-- Five of the last six wins by Dallas on Thanksgiving Day have come by double digits
-- Washington has gone 1-6 on Thanksgiving Day, with all six losses against Dallas
Thanksgiving History - Detroit
Year Matchup
2012 Green Bay 15 Detroit 27
2010 New England 45 Detroit 24
2009 Green Bay 34 Detroit 12
2008 Tennessee 47 Detroit 10
2007 Green Bay 37 Detroit 26
2006 Miami 27 Detroit 10
2005 Atlanta 27 Detroit 7
2004 Indianapolis 41 Detroit 9
2003 Detroit 22 Green Bay 14
2002 New England 20 Detroit 12
2001 Green Bay 29 Detroit 27
2000 Detroit 34 New England 9
1999 Detroit 21 Chicago 17
1998 Detroit 19 Pittsburgh 16 (OT)
1997 Detroit 55 Chicago 20
1996 Kansas City 28 Detroit 24
1995 Detroit 44 Minnesota 38
1994 Detroit 35 Buffalo 21
1993 Chicago 10 Detroit 6
1992 Houston 24 Detroit 21
1991 Detroit 16 Chicago 6
1990 Detroit 40 Denver 27
1989 Detroit 13 Cleveland 10
1988 Minnesota 23 Detroit 0
1987 Kansas City 27 Detroit 20
1986 Green Bay 44 Detroit 40
1985 Detroit 31 N.Y. Jets 20
1984 Detroit 31 Green Bay 28
1983 Detroit 45 Pittsburgh 3
1982 N.Y. Giants 13 Detroit 6
1981 Detroit 27 Kansas City 10
1980 Chicago 23 Detroit 17 (OT)
1979 Detroit 20 Chicago 0
1978 Detroit 17 Denver 14
1977 Chicago 31 Detroit 14
1976 Detroit 27 Buffalo 14
1975 L.A. 20 Detroit 0
1974 Denver 31 Detroit 27
1973 Washington 20 Detroit 0
1972 Detroit 37 N.Y. Jets 20
1971 Detroit 32 Kansas City 21
1970 Detroit 28 Oakland 14
1969 Minnesota 27 Detroit 0
1968 Philadelphia 12 Detroit 0
1967 L.A. Rams 31 Detroit 7
Thanksgiving History - Dallas
Year Matchup
2012 Dallas 20 Miami 19
2010 New Orleans 30 Dallas 27
2009 Dallas 24 Oakland 7
2008 Dallas 34 Seattle 9
2007 Dallas 34 N.Y. Jets 3
2006 Dallas 38 Tampa Bay 10
2005 Denver 24 Dallas 21 (OT)
2004 Dallas 21 Chicago 7
2003 Miami 40 Dallas 21
2002 Dallas 27 Washington 20
2001 Denver 26 Dallas 24
2000 Minnesota 27 Dallas 15
1999 Dallas 20 Miami 0
1998 Minnesota 46 Dallas 36
1997 Tennessee 27 Dallas 14
1996 Dallas 21 Washington 10
1995 Dallas 24 Kansas City 12
1994 Dallas 42 Green Bay 31
1993 Miami 16 Dallas 14
1992 Dallas 30 N.Y. Giants 3
1991 Dallas 20 Pittsburgh 10
1990 Dallas 27 Washington 17
1989 Philadelphia 27 Dallas 0
1988 Houston 25 Dallas 17
1987 Minnesota 44 Dallas 38 (OT)
1986 Seattle 31 Dallas 14
1985 Dallas 35 St. Louis 17
1984 Dallas 20 New England 17
1983 Dallas 35 St. Louis 17
1982 Dallas 31 Cleveland 14
1981 Dallas 10 Chicago 9
1980 Dallas 51 Seattle 7
1979 Houston 30 Dallas 24
1978 Dallas 37 Washington 10
1976 Dallas 19 St. Louis 14
1974 Dallas 24 Washington 23
1973 Miami 14 Dallas 7
1972 San Francisco 31 Dallas 10
1971 Dallas 28 Los Angeles 21
1970 Dallas 16 Green Bay 3
1969 Dallas 24 San Francisco 24
1968 Dallas 29 Washington 20
1967 Dallas 46 St. Louis 21
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Pats-Jets Matchup Highlights Thanksgiving Day NFL Games
Houston Texans at Detroit Lions
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/22/2012 at 12:30 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Houston -3, O/U 48½
Television: CBS
Houston Texans: The Texans (9-1 straight-up, 7-3 against the spread) dodged a bullet last week at home and might be hard-pressed to get a tougher challenge on the road this Thanksgiving Day. Houston needed overtime to knock off Jacksonville 43-37 behind a game-winning 48-yard touchdown catch from wide receiver Andre Johnson (14 catches for a career-high 273 yards) but still failed to deliver as a 15-point favorite. Quarterback Matt Schaub also threw for a career-high 527 yards, which tied for the second-highest total in NFL history, and five touchdowns. Schaub and Johnson will now get to feast on Detroit’s secondary that was burned for a 22-yard TD pass from Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers in the final two minutes to win that game. Texans RB Arian Foster carried the ball 28 times for 77 yards in the win and should be more involved against the Lions as well.
Detroit Lions: Detroit (4-6 SU and ATS) blew a golden opportunity to beat a division opponent in losing 24-20 at home to the Packers last week and now must prepare for the AFC’s best team on short rest. The Lions saw QB Matthew Stafford complete less than half of his passes (17-of-39) for 266 yards with two interceptions but got WR Calvin Johnson involved (five catches for 143 yards) and hit him with the go-ahead touchdown with 3:01 left in the third quarter. However, they fell victim to Rodgers down the stretch and dropped to 0-4 in the NFC North, two games behind Minnesota for last place. Detroit is 3-3 SU in its last six games following a 1-3 start and has failed to cover two straight with the “over” going 3-1 in the team’s past four.
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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/22/2012 at 4:15 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Dallas -4, O/U 47
Television: FOX
Washington Redskins: The Redskins (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) ended a three-game skid off their bye week and will now try to win two in a row against division opponents when they visit another NFC East rival in Arlington. Washington drilled Philadelphia 31-6 last week behind four touchdown passes from rookie QB Robert Griffin III, who completed 14-of-15 overall for 200 yards. None of the team’s receivers caught more than three passes, including Pierre Garcon, who returned from a foot injury to play for the first time in five games and totaled three catches for just five yards. The “under” cashed for the fourth straight time overall for the Redskins, although the “over” is 3-2 in their five road games so far this season.
Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) needed OT to edge Cleveland 23-20 last week after playing four of their previous five games on the road. They began a stretch of five home games in six weeks against the Browns and will close out the regular season at Washington on December 30. Dallas once again relied on the arm of QB Tony Romo to carry the team, as he completed 35-of-50 passes for 313 yards, including a 28-yard touchdown pass to WR Dez Bryant (12 catches for 145 yards) with 6:46 left in regular for a 17-13 lead. The Cowboys struggled to run the ball again without RB DeMarco Murray, with Felix Jones totaling 43 yards on 14 carries. Murray (foot) is doubtful to return for the annual Thanksgiving Day affair (click to check updated NFL injury report), so Romo will likely look to burn one of the league’s worst pass defenses, surrendering 289.2 yards per game.
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New England Patriots at New York Jets
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/22/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: New England -7, O/U 50½
Television: NBC
New England Patriots: The Patriots (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 59-24 thrashing of Indianapolis last week, but the win did not come without a cost. All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski suffered a broken forearm while playing special teams on an extra-point attempt, and he is expected to miss a few games. Gronkowski hauled in seven catches for 137 yards, including two touchdowns, and he will be missed in the red zone as QB Tom Brady’s favorite target. The good news is that TE Aaron Hernandez is expected to return from an ankle injury and should be able to help Brady, who threw for 331 yards and three TDs against the Colts. Brady was actually outplayed by New York’s Mark Sanchez in the first meeting with the Jets (a 29-26 OT victory back on Oct. 21), and he will need to play better if the Pats are going to win their fifth straight game. The “over” has cashed in New England’s last eight games.
New York Jets: The Jets (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) ended their three-game losing streak with an impressive 27-13 road win at St. Louis last week. They had dropped five of six, including the loss to New England, but found a way to shut down the Rams and score just enough to help top the 38-point total. New York covered easily as 3½-point road underdogs and also beat the 11-point line in the first meeting with the Patriots. The Jets got good balance offensively against St. Louis with QB Mark Sanchez throwing for 178 yards and running backs Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell combining for 106 yards on 29 carries. One of the keys was not turning the ball over, something they did twice in the last game vs. New England. The Pats scored two defensive touchdowns off four Indy turnovers last week, including a 59-yard interception return from new cornerback Aqib Talib.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 04:25 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12040
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NFL Week 12 Preview: Texans at Lions
HOUSTON TEXANS (9-1)
at DETROIT LIONS (4-6)
Kickoff: Thursday, 12:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Houston -3, Total: 50.5
The Texans try to remain perfect on the road when they visit slumping Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.
The Lions haven’t had a happy Thanksgiving in a while, as they’ve lost eight Thanksgiving Classics in a row, SU and ATS, and they haven’t come within 11 points in any of those games. This season, Detroit has been victimized by slow starts and its own conservative play-calling. They Lions are just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS at home. Houston’s previously dominant defense was a dud last week, allowing 458 yards and 37 points to the lowly Jaguars at home. But they did prove they could win a shootout, racking up 640 yards of offense in the 43-37 win. QB Matt Schaub threw for 527 yards (T-2nd in NFL history) and 5 TD, and could feast on Detroit’s banged up secondary.
Can the Lions end their Thanksgiving Day futility on Thursday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.
The Texans have been outstanding on the road this season, going 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) with the defense allowing a mere 13.7 PPG and 257 total YPG to the host teams. But Houston's defense has a lot of work to do after surrendering a season-high 458 yards to Jacksonville last week, including 354 passing yards to second-string QB Chad Henne. Detroit's passing offense leads the NFL (302 YPG), so the Texans certainly have their work cut out for them. On the offensive side of the ball, Schaub will continue to rely on his top receiver, Andre Johnson, who is coming off a 14-catch, 273-yard performance in the wild 43-37 win over Jacksonville. The 273 yards is the most in the NFL since 2000. But the Texans remain a run-heavy offense, ranking eighth in the NFL with 137 rushing YPG. Arian Foster leads the league with 10 rushing touchdowns and has 37 more carries than anybody else in the NFL (24.9 per game). Houston's offense has been careless over the past two weeks, turning the football over five times.
Lions QB Matthew Stafford ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards (2,988), but is just 21st in passer rating with a paltry 12 TD and 10 INT in his 10 games. He's also been sacked 22 times and the Texans are tied for eighth in the NFL with 27 sacks, led by DL J.J. Watt who has 11.5 sacks for the season. Stafford and top WR Calvin Johnson are starting to get on the same page, as Johnson has racked up three straight 100-yard receiving games and now leads the NFL with 1,117 receiving yards. He has been battling knee and thumb injuries, but he is expected to start on Thursday. Detroit's rushing offense has been nothing to write home about, ranking 23rd in the NFL with 99.9 yards per game. With Houston ranking second in the NFL in run defense (86 YPG), the game plan for Detroit will be a heavy passing attack. With the Lions committing four turnovers last week, they are now tied for third in the NFC in most giveaways (18).
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NFL Week 12 Preview: Redskins at Cowboys
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (4-6)
at DALLAS COWBOYS (5-5)
Kickoff: Thursday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -3, Total: 48
A classic NFL rivalry resumes on Thanksgiving Day when the Redskins visit the Cowboys.
Dallas has yet to cover at home this year (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS), but it has covered in five of its past six games as a Thanksgiving Day favorite. They Cowboys will be dealing with a rising rookie superstar in Redskins QB Robert Griffin III, who bounced back from a mini-slump to throw four TDs against the Eagles last week. He’s posted a 100.3 passer rating in five road games this year. Dallas needed to come back and force overtime against the Browns at home last week, but has managed back-to-back SU wins for the first time since Weeks 9-12 last season.
Which NFC East rival will prevail on Thursday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.
Griffin III was outstanding in last week's 31-6 trouncing of Philadelphia, completing 14-of-15 passes for 4 TD. He also added 84 yards on 12 carries, improving his league-leading total among quarterbacks to 613 rushing yards. He hopes to be the difference maker that his team has lacked in the past three meetings, which the Cowboys have won by a combined eight points. Partly because the Cowboys are the sixth-best passing defense in the NFL (211 YPG), Washington will likely try to control the game by rushing the football. The Redskins rank second in the NFL with 165 rushing YPG led by another exciting rookie, Alfred Morris, who has 869 rushing yards on 4.7 YPC with five touchdowns. Griffin has six rushing TD. The Redskins have rushed for at least 150 yards in four of their past five road games. This ground game has also been a key reason why Washington has zero turnovers in its past three games combined.
Cowboys QB Tony Romo was able to bring his team back from a double-digit, fourth-quarter deficit against the Browns last week, winning 23-20 in overtime. Although he's had a subpar season (7.4 YPA, 13 TD, 13 INT), Romo expects to throw ball all over the weak Washington secondary. The Redskins are allowing 289 passing YPG, which ranks fourth-to-last in the NFL. Romo has a pair of talented receivers in Miles Austin (727 rec. yds) and Dez Bryant (735 rec. yds), who is coming off a 12-catch, 145-yard performance against Cleveland. TE Jason Witten leads the team in both receptions (73) and targets (99). The running game is a big problem though, as both of Dallas' top running backs, DeMarco Murray (foot) and Felix Jones (knee), are expected to miss Thursday's contest. That leaves rookie Lance Dunbar as the main running back. Dunbar has just 20 carries this season, gaining just 67 yards (3.4 YPC) with zero touchdowns. Washington's rushing defense ranks seventh in the league at 95 YPG allowed, so the game plan for the Cowboys figures to be one heavily favoring the pass.
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NFL Week 13 Preview: Patriots at Jets
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (7-3)
at NEW YORK JETS (4-6)
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -6.5, Total: 48
One of the most bitter NFL rivalries continues on Thursday night when the red-hot Patriots make the short trip to New Jersey to battle the Jets.
In Week 7, the Jets played arguably their best game of the season in New England, but blew a late lead and eventually lost 29-26 in overtime. They outgained the Patriots 403-281 and Mark Sanchez threw for 328 yards. Tom Brady led field goal drives at the end of regulation and in OT. Brady has had a couple of duds in New Jersey since Rex Ryan took over in New York. He has a 79.7 passer rating over three games against Ryan’s Jets, but he picked them apart last November, throwing for 329 yards and 3 TD in a 37-16 Patriots blowout. He’ll be without TE Rob Gronkowski (broken arm), but should get TE Aaron Hernandez (ankle) back on the field.
Can the Jets slow down the Patriots on Thursday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.
New England is riding a four-game win streak (2-2 ATS) thanks to an offense averaging 42.5 PPG during this stretch. Brady has a 111.3 passer rating during this string, throwing 11 TD and 0 INT. Brady is 17-5 as a starter in his career against the Jets, throwing for 5,314 yards (242 YPG), 32 TD and just 11 INT. In the Week 7 overtime victory, he connected on 26-of-42 throws for 259 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. Brady and his talented receiving corps, led by Wes Welker (73 rec, 890 yds), is the main reason this offense is so efficient, but the rushing attack has also been strong in 2012 (143 YPG), piling up at least 115 rushing yards in four straight games. Defensively, the Patriots have also been great in stopping the run, with just 99 rushing YPG allowed. A big reason New England hasn't lost in four games is that the club has turned the ball over just once during the win streak, posting three straight turnover-free games.
The Jets have dropped five of their past seven games, including three of four on their home turf. Although they beat St. Louis handily last week, 27-13, they generated only 289 total yards including 3.0 yards per carry. Starting with the New England game, New York is averaging a subpar 105 rushing YPG on 3.6 YPC over the past four games. Sanchez played well the last time he faced New England, but is just 2-5 in seven regular-season starts versus the Pats, throwing for only 212 YPG on 7.0 YPA with 9 TD and 10 INT. For the season, Sanchez has thrown for a mere 6.5 YPA, 11 TD and 9 INT, as he ranks 29th in passer rating. But after committing 13 turnovers in his first nine games, Sanchez (and the entire Jets team) had a turnover-free game last week. Ball protection is of the upmost importance, as New England leads the AFC with 27 takeaways, returning two interceptions for touchdowns last week.
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NFL odds: Week 12 opening line report
Your sweat pants are washed and pressed. Sixty percent of your fridge is home to a 20-pound half-frozen turkey. And you just tossed a few extra bucks into your sportsbook bankroll. It could only mean one thing: Thanksgiving is almost here.
The NFL is serving up triple helpings of action on Turkey Day, starting with Houston at Detroit at 12:30 p.m. ET, followed by Washington at Dallas at 4:15 p.m. ET, and finally New England at New York at 8:20 p.m. ET.
“Traditionally, we’re high on favorites with the Thanksgiving games. Everyone is home and everyone is betting,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service, The Sports Club, told Covers. “This year, the games are a little more competitive but we’re still high on the favorites.”
Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 49)
Korner was baffled by what he saw at some of the online shops, when early spreads had Houston favored by only three points. The Texans were nearly knocked off by the lowly Jaguars Sunday but Houston – at 9-1 SU – is still one of the best teams in the NFL.
“Detroit is just 4-6 and not the team everyone expected this season,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested spread of Houston -6. “I don’t understand why this came out at three. Come Thursday, who do you think everyone is going to be playing?”
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 47)
The Cowboys, coming off a nail-biting overtime win against Cleveland, turn around to face a classic rival on Thanksgiving Day. The Sports Club sent out Dallas -4.5 while early lines offshore opened with America’s Team as a 3.5-point home fave.
“Washington is a live dog here,” says Korner. “That win was great for Dallas and the Cowboys do have their following, but I don’t think (the spread) will go either way. It should settle in around three.”
New England Patriots at New York Jets (+5.5, 49)
The Sports Club sent out a suggested spread of New England -7 for this AFC East battle, but the injury to star TE Rob Gronkowski (out 4-6 weeks with broken forearm) has dropped the spread as low as -5.
Korner says big money could be controlling this line, waiting to see how low it can go before buying back New England.
“Whoever is controlling this move definitely doesn’t want New England -7.5 come Thursday,” he says. “I think it went down because of Gronk (who Korner says is worth a point to the spread), and he’s a difference maker. But it’s a good excuse to take this line down. There won’t be any Jets money coming in Thursday.”
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-1, 49.5)
Online books opened New York as a slim home favorite in this rematch of the NFC Divisional showdown from last year. However, Korner disagrees with making the Giants the favorites and expects this line to easily move to Green Bay before Sunday.
“I was the only one of our guys who had Green Bay favored,” he says. “The Giants aren’t playing well, Eli hasn’t been sharp, and this is a revenge spot for the Packers. One bet can move this spread over to Green Bay.”
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Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 04:26 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12040
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NFL Thanksgiving Day betting cheat sheet
Thanksgiving is about taking a break to reflect with family and friends, but it’s also a time to get some tasty bets down on NFL action.
If you’ve been too busy jumping through the Thanksgiving hoops to handicap Thursday’s slate - don’t worry. Our NFL Thanksgiving Day cheat sheet comes to the rescue like gravy on dry turkey.
Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 50.5)
The Texans are coming off a near-upset to Jacksonville Sunday and visit the Lions for their first Thanksgiving Day game in franchise history. Detroit has dropped back-to-back games and hasn’t fared well on Thanksgiving Day in recent years, going 0-8 SU and ATS since 2004.
Detroit will be without WR Titus Young, who is being benched for behavior issues, leaving the Lions very thin at receiver. Veteran wideout Nate Burleson is already out for the season, allowing opponents to double-up on star WR Calvin Johnson.
Tight end Brandon Pettigrew could see more passes his way and RB Mikel Leshoure may have to shoulder a heavier load on the ground, in order to take pressure off QB Matt Stafford Thursday.
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48)
This classic NFC East rivalry has been dominated by the underdog in recent seasons, with the pup going 22-6 ATS in the past 29 meeting between the Redskins and Cowboys. Dallas won both encounters with Washington last season but failed to cover in those – and the last four meetings with the Skins overall.
The Cowboys are another Thanksgiving Day mainstay and - unlike the Lions - they have thrived on the holiday, going 8-3 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2001. That goes against Dallas’ current ATS slide at home, where it has failed to cover in its last seven home games overall, including last week’s OT win against the Browns.
Washington rookie QB Robert Griffin III won’t be in an unfamiliar atmosphere at Cowboys Stadium Thursday. During his college career at Baylor, the former Heisman winner played twice in the $1 billion venue. The Redskins have lost all three trips to “Jerry’s World” and are 0-6 SU all-time versus Dallas on Thanksgiving Day.
New England Patriots at New York Jets (+7, 48)
No wonder this spread is back up to a touchdown after dipping as low as 5.5 earlier in the week. The road team is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings between these clubs, including New York’s near upset of New England at Gillette Stadium in Week 7.
The Patriots won’t have tight end Rob Gronkowski for this Thanksgiving Day game but fellow TE Aaron Hernandez could return to action after missing time with an ankle injury. New England could hand the bulk of the playbook over the rushing tandem of Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, who have quietly given the Pats the fifth-best ground attack in the NFL (142.9 yards per game).
New York’s defense has been gashed on the ground this season, allowing foes to rumble for 141.7 yards an outing – 30th in the league. Gang Green allowed the Rams to run for 124 yards on just 20 carries in last week’s win in St. Louis (6.2 yards per carry), and watched New England rush for 131 yards in Week 7. The Patriots’ no-huddle attack will drain the Jets’ battery if they line up quick and keep to the ground.
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NFL
Dunkel
Week 12
New England at NY Jets
The Patriots look to build on their 7-3-1 ATS record in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record. New England is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 14 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22
Game 103-104: Houston at Detroit (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 138.139; Detroit 136.551
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3 1/2); Under
Game 105-106: Washington at Dallas (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.590; Dallas 131.544
Dunkel Line: Even; 51
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3 1/2); Over
Game 107-108: New England at NY Jets (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 142.851; NY Jets 128.310
Dunkel Line: New England by 14 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: New England by 6 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2); Over
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NFL
Long Sheet
Week 12
Thursday, November 22
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HOUSTON (9 - 1) at DETROIT (4 - 6) - 11/22/2012, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in dome games since 1992.
HOUSTON is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 32-54 ATS (-27.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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WASHINGTON (4 - 6) at DALLAS (5 - 5) - 11/22/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
DALLAS is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
DALLAS is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW ENGLAND (7 - 3) at NY JETS (4 - 6) - 11/22/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 150-111 ATS (+27.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 76-53 ATS (+17.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 44-24 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-3 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 04:26 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12040
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NFL
Long Sheet
Week 12
Thursday, November 22
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HOUSTON (9 - 1) at DETROIT (4 - 6) - 11/22/2012, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in dome games since 1992.
HOUSTON is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 32-54 ATS (-27.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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WASHINGTON (4 - 6) at DALLAS (5 - 5) - 11/22/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
DALLAS is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
DALLAS is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW ENGLAND (7 - 3) at NY JETS (4 - 6) - 11/22/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 150-111 ATS (+27.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 76-53 ATS (+17.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 44-24 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-3 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 12
Texans (9-1) @ Lions (4-6)—Short week plus travel for Houston team that has 3-game division lead with six to play, but is also playing for home field in playoffs. Wade Phillips coached in Dallas, so he should know how to deal with short prep time for Turkey Day game. Schaub passed for 504 yards in dome last week (8.8 ypa) after they struggled to 13-6 win in elements in Chicago week before (88 PY), so home field means more to them than most. Texans are 4-0 on road, with all wins by 6+ points; they covered seven of last ten tries as a road favorite. Detroit lost last five Turkey Day games, allowing average of 40 ppg; they lost to division rivals last two weeks, allowing 34-24 points. Lions are 15-10-2 vs spread in last 27 games vs AFC opponents, 1-1 this year; since start of LY, they’re 0-2 as home underdogs. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 5-2 vs spread, 1-1 on road. Four of last five Texan games in a dome, three of last four Detroit games went over total.
Redskins (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5)—RGIII returns to Texas (went to college at Baylor) with Redskin squad that snapped 3-game skid with 31-6 rout of Eagles last week; Skins are 2-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-4-15 (Steelers) points. Dallas was gifted with OT win last week; 10 of their 30 first downs came via Cleveland penalties. Cowboys are 3-14 vs spread in last 17 games as home favorite, 0-3 this year; they’re 2-2 at home, beating Bucs by 6, Browns by 3. Pokes led at halftime in one of last seven games, but they’ve also only turned ball over once last three weeks (+2) after having 19 giveaways in first seven games (-11). Redskins scored 40-28-23 points in three games on artificial turf (1-2), with underdog covering all three games- they’ve run ball for 151-169 yards in last two games. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in NFC East divisional games; home favorites are 1-3. Last three Washington games stayed under the total.
Patriots (7-3) @ Jets (4-6)—Key indicator for Jets is 3rd down conversions; they’re 41-87 (47.1%) on 3rd down in games they’ve played well (4-2), 13-53 (24.5%) in four stinkers they played, losing all four by average of 23 points. In three of Jets’ four wins, they had +3 or +4 turnover ratio; Dolphins are only team they’ve beaten (23-20, OT) without winning TO ratio. Patriots are just trying to outscore people; in last two games, foes converted 15-25 on 3rd down, scoring 31-24 points, but NE scored 37-59 points. Absence of Gronkowski (broken arm) is a problem. Jets are 2-3 at home; since ’08, they’ve covered three of four as a home underdog. Since 2003, Pats are 16-6-1 vs spread as road favorite in divisional games; they’re 2-2 in true road games this year (beat Rams in London), with both losses by point (Ravens/Seattle), wins by 21-24. Home teams are 2-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games; home dogs are 0-2. Last eight New England games went over, three of last four Jet games stayed under.
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NFL
Week 12
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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 22
12:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. DETROIT
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 games
Detroit is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
4:15 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Washington
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
8:20 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 9 games on the road
NY Jets are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against New England
NY Jets are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games when playing at home against New England
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NFL
Short Sheet
Week 12
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Houston at Detroit, 12:30 ET CBS
Houston: 8-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3
Detroit: 12-29 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
Washington at Dallas, 4:15 ET FOX
Washington: 14-2 ATS vs. excellent passing teams
Dallas: 13-4 Under when playing against a marginal losing team
New England at NY Jets, 8:20 ET NBC
New England: 14-5 ATS in road games
NY Jets: 40-69 ATS at home after playing their last game on the road
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 04:27 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12040
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NFL
Thursday, November 22
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Texans at Lions: What bettors need to know
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Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 50.5)
The Detroit Lions have hosted a Thanksgiving Day game for 73 years. It has not gone their way recently. The Lions will be looking to snap an eight-game losing streak on Thanksgiving when they host the Houston Texans on Thursday. The Texans needed overtime to squeeze past lowly Jacksonville on Sunday but own the best record in the AFC at 9-1. Detroit has dropped two straight and sits in a familiar position - last in the NFC North.
The Lions lost to the Green Bay Packers last Thanksgiving - a game most notable for Ndamukong Suh’s stomp of an offensive lineman that ended up earning him a two-game suspension. Suh and company rank in the top 10 in the league defensively as far as yardage is concerned but sit in the bottom third in scoring defense, thanks in part to an offense that has left it in bad position with turnovers. The Lions can’t afford to do that against the Texans, who broke out for 43 points on Sunday and have yet to lose on the road.
TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: Houston opened as big as 3.5 with most books dealing -3, which has remained steady. The total is set at 51 after moving up from 49.
THANKSGIVING HISTORY: Detroit is right there with mashed potatoes as a Thanksgiving staple. The Lions are 11-16 SU and ATS and 14-13 over/under on Thanksgiving since 1985, including going 0-8 SU and ATS since 2004 with a 2-6 over/under count in that span. This will be Houston's first Thanksgiving Day game in franchise history.
ABOUT THE TEXANS (9-1, 7-3 ATS): After winning two straight ugly games with its defense, Houston lit it up offensively on Sunday, totaling 640 yards. Matt Schaub passed for a career-high 527 yards and five touchdowns and Andre Johnson broke out of a slump in a big way with 273 yards and a TD on 14 receptions. The Texans had held their previous three opponents to 13 points or less and are entering the most difficult stretch of the schedule. Houston will play its next three games on the road, with trips to Tennessee and New England coming after Detroit. The Texans struggled in pass coverage against Jaguars backup Chad Henne on Sunday and will have to get that fixed before facing the Lions, who lead the league in passing offense.
ABOUT THE LIONS (4-6, 4-6 ATS): Passing is the one thing the offense has done consistently well this season, though quarterback Matt Stafford has only 12 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Stafford and Calvin Johnson have been able to pile up the yardage but have struggled in the red zone. The Lions had to settle for two field goals inside the 10-yard line and Stafford had a pass intercepted in the end zone in Sunday’s 24-20 home loss to the Packers. Johnson caught the lone touchdown pass in that contest but, like Stafford, he also lost a fumble. Detroit might have to run the table to make the playoffs for a second straight season, and a schedule that includes Houston, Atlanta, Chicago and Green Bay over the last six games makes that a difficult proposition
TRENDS:
* Texans are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
* Lions are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Texans last six road games.
* Under is 7-3 in Lions last 10 Thursday games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Lions OT Jeff Backus left Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury and is questionable for Thursday. He has started 186 straight games.
2. Schaub’s 527-yard performance tied for the second-biggest passing day in NFL history. Norm Van Brocklin has held the record of 554 yards since Sept. 28, 1951.
3. Texans RB Arian Foster lost a fumble for the first time this season against the Jaguars.
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NFL
Thursday, November 22
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Redskins at Cowboys: What bettors need to know
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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48)
While hardly aesthetically pleasing, the Dallas Cowboys have put together a pair of wins to position themselves in the discussion for a potential postseason berth. The talk could get louder should the Cowboys topple the Washington Redskins on Thanksgiving when the NFC East rivals meet in Arlington, Texas. Dallas moved one game behind the division-leading New York Giants after posting a 23-20 overtime victory over Cleveland on Sunday.
Rookie Robert Griffin III had a much easier time of it on Sunday as the reigning Heisman Trophy winner tossed a season-best four touchdowns in a 31-6 triumph over reeling Philadelphia. Washington snapped a three-game losing skid and preserved its slim postseason aspirations. The Redskins will look to gain ground in the division as they continue their stretch of playing five NFC East rivals over the final seven weeks of the season.
TV: 4:15 p.m. ET, FOX.
LINE: Dallas opened as high as -4 but most books are dealing 3.5. The total has moved from 47 to 48 points.
THANKSGIVING HISTORY: Dallas is a mainstay of the Thanksgiving schedule, going 15-12 SU and 16-11 ATS (13-14 over/under) on Thanksgiving since 1985, including a 5-1 SU and ATS record since 2006. Washington is 0-3 SU and ATS on Thanksgiving Day since 1985 with a 2-1 over/under record in those game.
ABOUT THE REDSKINS (4-6, 5-5 ATS): Veteran wide receiver Santana Moss found the end zone for the fourth time in as many weeks after splitting double coverage to reel in a 61-yard scoring strike from Griffin. Moss, who matched a career high with six touchdowns this season, has traditionally torched the Cowboys (78 receptions, 1,125 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games). After failing to force a turnover in its previous two games, Washington did so three times during the first half on Sunday.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (5-5, 4-6 ATS): Wide receiver Dez Bryant benefited from the pass-heavy offense to reel in 12 catches for a career-high 145 yards and a touchdown. Tony Romo and the mercurial Bryant will likely be licking their chops when they face Washington's porous 29th-ranked pass defense, which is yielding 289.2 yards per contest. With DeMarco Murray (foot) sidelined for a fifth straight game, Felix Jones matched a career high with his third touchdown run. Jones injured his knee late in Sunday's game but is expected to play on Thanksgiving.
TRENDS:
* Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Dallas.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Underdog is 22-6 ATS in their last 28 meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Washington S Brandon Meriweather made his season debut versus Philadelphia after being sidelined with a left knee injury. Meriweather, who intercepted rookie Nick Foles, tore his ACL and is lost for the season.
2. After leading the league with 13 interceptions through seven games, Romo has four touchdowns and no picks over his last three games.
3. Dallas has won six of the last seven meetings - including a season sweep in 2011 by a total of five points.
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NFL
Thursday, November 22
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Patriots at Jets: What bettors need to know
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New England Patriots at New York Jets (+6.5, 48)
Riding a four-game winning streak, the New England Patriots have to prepare for Thursday night’s game against the host New York Jets without tight end Rob Gronkowski. In the midst of another dominant season Gronkowski broke his forearm in the Patriots’ win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. Gronkowski underwent surgery Monday morning and could miss the rest of the regular season. With him sidelined, the Patriots may look to run the ball more against the Jets, who are sixth in the NFL against the pass but rank 30th vs. the run, giving up an average of 141 rushing yards.
The Jets finally got back on the right path in beating the St. Louis Rams to end their three-game slide and rebound from two straight blowout losses. New York needs to go on a winning streak to get back in the playoff picture. It trails New England by three games in the AFC East standings but is just two out of a congested wild card race.
TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.
WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the low 44s. Winds are expected to blow south at 1 mph.
LINE: New England opened as a touchdown favorite but was bet down as low as 5.5 before buyback came back on the Patriots. The total has moved from 50.5 to 48 points.
THANKSGIVING HISTORY: The Jets and Patriots have only played three Thanksgiving Day games each since 1985. New England is 2-1 SU and ATS and 2-1 over/under in those games while New York is 1-2 SU and ATS with a 1-2 over/under count.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (7-3, 6-4 ATS): The loss of Gronkowski is a major setback. Fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez has missed six games overall and three straight with a nagging ankle injury. Hernandez has been listed as questionable for several weeks and played just twice since sustaining the injury early in Week 2. Although New England expects him to be ready for Thursday, how well he’ll play is uncertain and tight ends have been a crucial part of the Patriots’ top-ranked offense. New England scored 59 points in its win against Indianapolis, the second time this season it has topped 50 points. The rest of the NFL has only done it twice.
ABOUT THE JETS (4-6, 6-4 ATS): New York finally got its offense in gear in its 27-13 win at St. Louis. Reserve running back Bilal Powell ran for the first two touchdowns of his career and QB Mark Sanchez was efficient and turnover-free. Sanchez ranks last among starters in completion percentage but fired a scoring pass against the Rams and completed 75 percent of his passes. The Jets nearly won at New England in Week 7. New York scored 13 straight points in the fourth quarter to take a three-point lead with 1:37 to play. But the Jets watched Tom Brady move the team into field goal position to tie the game and New England won it in overtime with another field goal.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Patriots are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings in New York.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in New York.
* Road team is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Jets PK Nick Folk booted a pair of 51-yard field goals against the Rams. He has missed just three of 17 attempts this season, two of which were blocked.
2. Gronkowski scored twice against the Jets earlier in the season.
3. Sanchez threw for a season-high 328 yards in the 29-26 loss at New England.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-22-12 04:28 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 12040
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NFL
Sunday, November 25
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Falcons at Bucs: What bettors need to know
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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1, 50.5)
If the conference-leading Atlanta Falcons hope to continue their winning ways, they'll have to derail one of the hottest teams in the league when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a matchup of the top two clubs in the NFC South on Sunday. After winning its first eight games of the campaign, Atlanta dropped a four-point decision at New Orleans on Nov. 11, ending its hopes of an undefeated season. The Falcons avoided a second straight loss last Sunday as they overcame an early 13-0 deficit and five interceptions by Matt Ryan to record a 23-19 triumph over Arizona.
Tampa Bay also made a comeback last weekend, rallying from a 21-10 deficit with 11 points in the final 4:03 of the fourth quarter and a touchdown pass from Josh Freeman to Dallas Clark just 4:20 into overtime for a 27-21 road victory over Carolina. It was the fourth consecutive win for the Buccaneers, who had lost four of their previous five contests. The triumph kept Tampa Bay three games behind Atlanta in the division and in the thick of things in the NFC wild-card picture.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
LINE: Falcons -1, O/U: 50.5.
WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s with sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the NW at 6 mph.
ABOUT THE FALCONS (9-1): Atlanta became the first team to win when its quarterback throws five interceptions and no touchdowns since Green Bay accomplished the feat in 1967 with Bart Starr under center. Ryan has been superb over his last seven road games as he has thrown 19 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. The Falcons have struggled against the run, ranking 30th in the league with an average of 5.0 yards allowed per carry. Tony Gonzalez needs 12 receiving yards to become the eighth player - and first tight end - in NFL history to reach the 14,000-yard plateau.
ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (6-4): Tampa Bay has scored a league-high 205 points over its last six games. Freeman has lost four of his last five games against Atlanta, throwing 10 interceptions and only six touchdown passes. In his last six overall contests, he is 5-1 with 16 TDs and only three picks. The Buccaneers own the league's best run defense with an average of 81.8 yards allowed. However, the team has surrendered an NFL-worst 312.6 passing yards.
TRENDS:
* Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Falcons’ last five vs. NFC South.
* Over is 7-0 in Buccaneers’ last seven games overall.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Falcons have won six of the last seven meetings between the division rivals.
2. Tampa Bay has not won five straight games since 2002.
3. Six of Atlanta's last seven games have been decided by no more than a touchdown.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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11-25-12 03:38 PM |
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