My simple questons is, how to to understand, SHOULD I use this as part of my handicapping, the math calculation. I see that SD ST has a better offense and Boise has a significantly better defence,...thus the number in the sum of the difference, -6.3
Am I to understand that in theory, Boise should be favored by 6.5 ?
What would be a near perfect number or what is an excellent number ? In other words, is there a standard 'perfect' number or is there a number to reference too ? Thanks in advance
you should get a significant number from your proposed computation; but I tried that applying it to all sixty or so lined NCAA games for each of the last two Saturdays, and came up with exactly 50% wins and losses ATS, so it clearly doesn't produce consistent winners. You might take a look at Andy Iskoe's stats summaries in which he computes an "X" factor, somewhat like your computation. http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/stats/iskoe-spreadsheet/
It's pretty clear to me that there isn't any such simple evaluation that can be used alone; any actual formula has to take into account a lot of such variables. Keep trying and good luck.