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Registered: Aug 2003
Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Week 2
Weíll lead off our weekly look at what the Sharps are thinking in the NFL with the reigning SuperBowl Champions. Games are presented in rotation order so you can make notes in your schedule.
TAMPA BAY AT NY GIANTS:
The opener here was Giants by 8.5. Sharps were impressed with Tampa Bayís intensity last week, and know that New York can be spotty as a home favorite (theyíre most dangerous when expectations are low, and conversely play down to the level of their opposition when you expect them to outperform). The line has come down to NYG -7 as a result. That also keeps the game out of the two-team teaser window, as anything from 7.5 to 8.5 would encourage teaser players to move the Giants down past both the 7 and the 3 to the -1.5 to 2.5 range. I will only talk about Over/Unders that have seen Sharp influences of at least a point. Nothing yet here.
ARIZONA AT NEW ENGLAND:
No interest from Sharps in this game yet, with the line staying at New England -13.5 and 48.5 or 49 all week. Itís telling that Sharps DIDNíT drive the line to -14. I've told you in the past that any widely available line that settles within a half point of a key numbers gives away Sharp intent. If Sharps wanted the favorite here, they would have jumped all over -13.5, (since its likely that the public will jump on NE, taking the line to two full Tds or more). They didnít. That tells you Sharps are waiting to see if that scenario plays out on the weekend so they can come in on the big dog at +14 or better.
MINNESOTA AT INDIANAPOLIS:
This line opened at pick-em, and moved to Minnesota -1. Thatís not much of a move since games rarely end in a tie. Many Sharps were disappointed with the Colts last week in terms of overall team quality. Andrew Luck is going to be a star, but heís not surrounded by a lot of talent at the moment, and the defense struggled badly in Chicago. But, even with that, the Vikes only moved a point, possibly because of previous poor performances in this spot, having lost 5 straight and 13 of the last 15 against the AFC, as well as 3 straight vs the Colts.
NEW ORLEANS AT CAROLINA:
Carolina received support as a home dog here, moving from +3 down to +2.5. Even though itís only a half-point move, thatís a strong indicator because three is a key number and it takes significant money to move off key numbers. Sharps will typically bet any line TOWARD the three just based on historical percentages. Money moving a game off a three is therefore very significant. Note that there was no buyback on the Saints at -2.5. Sharps are anti-Saints after that poor showing last week vs. Washington, and given all that the franchise has gone through in the offseason. Remember Sharps are dog players by default and will usually side with the pup unless there are compelling reasons not to.
KANSAS CITY AT BUFFALO:
No interest from Sharps here that we can decipher from the line or from discussions with well-placed sources. Both teams struggled last week. An opening line of Buffalo -3 basically says the teams are even and the Bills are getting home field advantage. Sharps would fade any public line move, but this isnít the kind of game the public usually bets with any passion. If nothing significant changes, Sharps will likely grab the points with KC, as they at least showed signs of life against a good Atlanta squad.
BALTIMORE AT PHILADELPHIA:
Big news on both the side and total here, as an opener of 43.5 is up to 46 because Baltimore looked so good in its up-tempo offense last week. If theyíre going to strike deep and often, then they will switch from a team that plays defensive struggles to one that plays shootouts. An opener of Philly -3 has come down to -2.5 as well, because the Ravens looked so good Monday. Given how badly the Eagles played in Cleveland, Sharps are taking Baltimore on the moneyline to win outright. As mentioned in NO/Carolina, the game moved off the three and didnít go back to the key number. Very important.
OAKLAND AT MIAMI:
Here we have another move off a key number, as Oakland opened at -3 but was bet down to -2.5. Itís not that Sharps love Miami-they looked pretty bad in Houston last week, but the Raiders were also very much out of sync Monday Night vs. San Diego, and are now flying cross country for an early start on a short week. Sharps felt the Raiders were getting too much respect at -3. Nobody of merit has stepped in on the Raiders at -2.5 after the drop. The opening total of 39.5 is down to 38.5 or 38 because both offenses look to be in trouble to start the season.
CLEVELAND AT CINCINNATI:
The only interest here has been on the total, as an opener of 40 is down to 38 or 38.5. That may foreshadow weather issues. But, itís mostly because Clevelandís offense was so inept last week that Sharps are reluctant to bet Overs in their games! The Browns didnít score an offensive TD, but did play valiant defense. Same story as last year. Sharps, particularly the stats guys, hit the Under hard when it went up at 40. The Bengals opened at -7 on the team side line and stayed there. Sharps would fade any public move off the key number.
HOUSTON AT JACKSONVILLE:
Here we have a move on a home dog toward a critical number. Houston opened -7.5 and fell to -7 even though they posted a big win vs. Miami. Jacksonville is a home underdog that tends to get up for its divisional rivals. And they gave Minnesota all they could handle last week. Sharps expect a competitive game, and are backing Jacksonville accordingly.
DALLAS AT SEATTLE:
This may end up being a heavily bet game, but itís not one showing Sharp tendencies yet. Dallas is -3 on the road after impressing in New York and having extra time to get ready. Sharps absolutely LOVED Seattle last week in Arizona, but have rethought that passion given the disappointing Seahawks performance. The public will likely bet Dallas on game day. Sharps would come in on the home dog IF they can get them at +3.5. We may just see oddsmakers adjust the vigorish because they donít want to risk getting sided in a game that will draw public action on game day.
WASHINGTON AT ST. LOUIS:
Interest here has been on the total, as an opener of 44 is up to 45.5. Thatís based on Washingtonís strong offensive showing in New Orleans. Theyíre playing indoors again this weekÖwhich should allow RGIII to take advantage of his legs and his arm. The team side line hasnít moved off Washington -3 because Sharps arenít ready yet to lay more than a Fg with a rookie QB on the road. They would bet the dog at +3.5 if the public were to start a Redskins bandwagon. A lot of games on the three this week.
NY JETS AT PITTSBURGH:
Pittsburgh opened at -6 in the marquee matchup amongst the late games. Sharps hit the dog at that line, dropping the line to Jets +5.5. Sharps werenít impressed with Pittsburgh Sunday Night in Denver, (having backed them solidly and losing, with more than one mentioning Todd Haley's play-calling) and like New York's chances to make this a competitive game. The total hasnít moved much yet. But, it will drop if weather becomes a factor, particularly because thereís a college game on this field Saturday.
TENNESSEE AT SAN DIEGO:
San Diego fell a point from -7 down to -6 off their Monday night game. Even though they won, they didnít look very good. Sharps couldnít accept them as a full TD favorite given their form last year and lackluster performance in the opener against Oakland. This is a big move off a key number, even if itís only a point, particularly since Sharps could have waited to see if the public bet the Chargers. They didnít want to wait, and took the TD early. The total has dropped from 44 to 43.
DETROIT AT SAN FRANCISCO:
This line has frozen at San Francisco by 6.5 with a total of 46. Whatís that tell you? If the Sharps liked the favorite, they would have hit that -6.5 immediately. They didnít, which means they want the dog and are hoping for a +7 (or better) in a Sunday Night TV game that the public has all day to bet. Sharps would likely come in very strong if they saw that seven, and will still get involved with authority on game day if +6.5 is the best theyíre going to get.
DENVER AT ATLANTA:
Sharps were impressed with Peyton Manning last week. Atlanta opened here at -3.5 but has been bet down to the key number. Thatís something, because Sharps loved Atlanta last week at Kansas City and won with them. The Falcons are a team that Sharps are currently high onÖbut you can now say that about BOTH of these teams. The total in this Monday Night finale has moved up two points from an opener of 49 to 51. Good quarterbacks playing indoors will draw attention from Sharps, particularly given the high scoring league tendencies last week and during the prime parts of the Preseason.
That wraps up this weeks look at the NFL markets.
As Always, Good Luck Den!
09-15-12 03:15 AM