StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

The FoxDen Forum : Powered by vBulletin version 2.3.0 The FoxDen Forum > Sports Handicapping, Trends, and Stats > First Game Fave Loser RLC
Search The Fox Den Forum:

Subscribe to this Thread


Last Message   Next Message
    
Author
Message    Post A Reply
htdykid
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2007
Posts: 3049

First Game Fave Loser RLC

Now that the drama is aside, let's get on to business. I will try to expound on the close calls but as y'all know, I have like 3 minutes a day to post and put in my own wagers. And I might make a mistake so double check me. And Mister MJ, you are still a dush for making me feel guilty about my system and now spending extra time explaining everything.

Today's plays
Boston(yesterday was borderline -119ish) -1.5 (+125)
NYY -1.5(+125)


Near miss LAD. I have them at pk tomorrow but if someone has seen a -120, let me know. As for the results, Chicago was a win as Windy pointed out so I'm updating toi reflect my negligence.

FGFLRLC- 20-9 +21.7 units

FGFLMLC- 30-11 +16.8 Units

Did I mention Mister MJ is a dush?

Old Post 05-24-11 06:40 PM
htdykid is offline Click Here to See the Profile for htdykid Click here to Send htdykid a Private Message Edit post   Report post
BigR


Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 503

Thanks

for posting Kid. I like this system. GL

Old Post 05-24-11 09:25 PM
BigR is offline Click Here to See the Profile for BigR Click here to Send BigR a Private Message Edit post   Report post
cebrake


Registered: Apr 2009
Posts: 91

LAD tomorrow -130.

Old Post 05-24-11 10:24 PM
cebrake is offline Click Here to See the Profile for cebrake Click here to Send cebrake a Private Message Edit post   Report post
htdykid
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2007
Posts: 3049

FGFLRLC- 20-9 +21.7 units

FGFLMLC- 30-11 +16.8 Units

Old Post 05-25-11 03:33 AM
htdykid is offline Click Here to See the Profile for htdykid Click here to Send htdykid a Private Message Edit post   Report post
htdykid
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2007
Posts: 3049

Both chases end

Bosox win
NYY win by 1 run

So good night for the ml system and a +.2 unit for the RLC

FGFLRLC- 21-10 +21.9 units

FGFLMLC- 32-11 +18.1 Units

Old Post 05-25-11 03:35 AM
htdykid is offline Click Here to See the Profile for htdykid Click here to Send htdykid a Private Message Edit post   Report post
htdykid
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2007
Posts: 3049

LA's near miss now looks like a whiff. I'm pretty surprised by the -121 today. Looking at Lilly and Rodriguez, this is an outlier in their previous lines. But with a 1 run win, the chase would be over anyway but LA would have fit in the system so I will adjust the results to account for the RL loss and ML win.

While I'm sitting on a con call with 50 lawyers, thought I'd muse for a second on why the system is performing ahead of past 3 years.
First, I think the upstarts, like Cleveland have played havoc with lines meaning more favorites losing in game 1. There are about 20% more plays right now than last year.

Second, the lack of scoring has driven up RLs to better rates. Instead of pk or +110, we now get last night's +125 with Boston. with 20 RL wins so far, that extra juice makes a huge difference.

Third, and this plays off my first thought, vegas and the house are damn good at what they do. Even when the Red Sox were struggling, they kept showing up in the system. They are 6 of the 20 wins and 1 loss. Hos a team that is 2-10 is a favorite in a whole series 6 straight times is beyond me. But it tells me they have played weak competition and so if I were picking a team to fade in picking the East winner or WS winner, I might pick Yanks or Rays or even Blue Jays with some value instead of the Sox.

Fell free to join in with any thoughts-don't be scared to get all philosophical!

Old Post 05-25-11 03:17 PM
htdykid is offline Click Here to See the Profile for htdykid Click here to Send htdykid a Private Message Edit post   Report post
htdykid
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2007
Posts: 3049

My 3000th post!!


Updated for LA Dodgers last night(good catch Cebrake) who won by 1 run, giving the system a split and -.2 units.

FGFLRLC- 21-11 +20.9 units

FGFLMLC- 33-11 +18.9 Units

Old Post 05-25-11 03:19 PM
htdykid is offline Click Here to See the Profile for htdykid Click here to Send htdykid a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Post A Reply
  
  Last Message   Next Message

Quick Links: