The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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htdykid
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2007
Posts: 3049
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First Game Fave Loser RLC
Now that the drama is aside, let's get on to business. I will try to expound on the close calls but as y'all know, I have like 3 minutes a day to post and put in my own wagers. And I might make a mistake so double check me. And Mister MJ, you are still a dush for making me feel guilty about my system and now spending extra time explaining everything.
Today's plays
Boston(yesterday was borderline -119ish) -1.5 (+125)
NYY -1.5(+125)
Near miss LAD. I have them at pk tomorrow but if someone has seen a -120, let me know. As for the results, Chicago was a win as Windy pointed out so I'm updating toi reflect my negligence.
FGFLRLC- 20-9 +21.7 units
FGFLMLC- 30-11 +16.8 Units
Did I mention Mister MJ is a dush?
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05-24-11 06:40 PM |
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cebrake
Registered: Apr 2009
Posts: 91
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LAD tomorrow -130.
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05-24-11 10:24 PM |
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htdykid
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2007
Posts: 3049
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FGFLRLC- 20-9 +21.7 units
FGFLMLC- 30-11 +16.8 Units
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05-25-11 03:33 AM |
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htdykid
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2007
Posts: 3049
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Both chases end
Bosox win
NYY win by 1 run
So good night for the ml system and a +.2 unit for the RLC
FGFLRLC- 21-10 +21.9 units
FGFLMLC- 32-11 +18.1 Units
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05-25-11 03:35 AM |
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htdykid
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2007
Posts: 3049
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LA's near miss now looks like a whiff. I'm pretty surprised by the -121 today. Looking at Lilly and Rodriguez, this is an outlier in their previous lines. But with a 1 run win, the chase would be over anyway but LA would have fit in the system so I will adjust the results to account for the RL loss and ML win.
While I'm sitting on a con call with 50 lawyers, thought I'd muse for a second on why the system is performing ahead of past 3 years.
First, I think the upstarts, like Cleveland have played havoc with lines meaning more favorites losing in game 1. There are about 20% more plays right now than last year.
Second, the lack of scoring has driven up RLs to better rates. Instead of pk or +110, we now get last night's +125 with Boston. with 20 RL wins so far, that extra juice makes a huge difference.
Third, and this plays off my first thought, vegas and the house are damn good at what they do. Even when the Red Sox were struggling, they kept showing up in the system. They are 6 of the 20 wins and 1 loss. Hos a team that is 2-10 is a favorite in a whole series 6 straight times is beyond me. But it tells me they have played weak competition and so if I were picking a team to fade in picking the East winner or WS winner, I might pick Yanks or Rays or even Blue Jays with some value instead of the Sox.
Fell free to join in with any thoughts-don't be scared to get all philosophical!
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05-25-11 03:17 PM |
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htdykid
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2007
Posts: 3049
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My 3000th post!!
Updated for LA Dodgers last night(good catch Cebrake) who won by 1 run, giving the system a split and -.2 units.
FGFLRLC- 21-11 +20.9 units
FGFLMLC- 33-11 +18.9 Units
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05-25-11 03:19 PM |
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