These numbers are amazing. I was just interested in knowing how this type of system would have worked out over the last couple of seasons? As of now I'm sold!!!!

Jack,

That is true, if a >50% team was shut out like 0-6, 0-7 or so. The same game will be under both "lost 6 or more runs" .AND. "shut-out". I think you can double up (2 units) to get same results as numbers indicated. 2 golden eggs in 1 basket is considered to be a little risky though. LOL.

BD

The concept is like this ....

>50% teams lost 1 game and need to win 1 back to keep them above 50%.

These teams have more pride than those <50% teams. So I think "L6" and "Shut-out" are served like "wake-up" calls for these teams, and they have to be more careful or need to find a way to handle next game(s). Maybe shuffle the lineup or have a team meeting, etc.

It would be nice to go deeper to 2004, or further to 2003 & 2002 records for confirmation. The more games, the better. I think maybe ignore the '1st 30 days' is the best way to query data.

You are right, the 31-6 combined is caused by some games fitting both lost by >=6 and shutout (ie. a 0-7 lose).

FYI... the 6 loses are...
5/9 ARZ
5/9 ANA
5/11 NYM
5/12 LAD
5/15 MIL
5/21 LAD
I'm looking to see if there's a common thread among them to further improve the system.

Since 5/9 ARZ lost the game in double-category (fulkgl post), today ARZ fit in double-category again, L 0-10 last nite. Maybe just 1 unit.

The 31-6 record current yields +22.22 units.

Looking at the games that fit this system a few things stood out to me. First, how even odds the games played are. That is, 24 of the 37 games were played with a ML line of +130 to -130. And that the 24 games in this "even" range results in a 22-2 record. Large lines (>+130 or <-130) result in a 9-4 record.

This system has had 20 visit and 17 home plays (losers were 3v 3h).

10 times out of 37 we played a team with a better record than us (lost 2 of the 10).

The 6 losers had ML lines of: -134, -142, +151, +128, +125, -134.

Of the 37 games only 3 large dog lines: +135, +137, +151. We lost the +151 and won the other 2.

----
today, 5/27 there are 4 plays that fit.
SD-105
FL+130
BOS+155
WAS+185
The first 2 fit quite nicely. The later 2 have very long lines and might be a long shot.

We've had 5 games YTD that are shutouts >=6 runs. We won 3 and lost 2. That doesn't look good for increasing your unit size.

SD will be the 6th game tonight.

Ooops I goofed. Scratch SD for the play tonight. It's ARZ-103, not SD. I should look more carefully at my own program's output before I start to type.

I will run those queries for your system tonight. I have the data going back to '97 and will get you those results tonight. I have a ****-load of things to do today so I'll be free tonight to run those numbers. They look good! Keep it up!

I think you mean ARZ, not SD for tonite. SD W yesterday.

ARZ is +108 dog in Pinnacle .... 4 dogs tonight.

Fulkgl - as you mentioned BOS & WAS look like long shot. I guess WAS is while BOS Wakefield is pretty effective facing NYY, plus a bounce-back for the Bosox also. I played them all, just go for %.

parlay pays 30 to 1

0-4 yesterday? What a big surprise! Bad start in such a 80%+ system.

Today only 1 game fits this system :

>50% team Shutout: 5/27 FLA 0-1

Play on Florida -190

I'm on Florida today. Not only does it fit this system, it fits another system I've been using with success: play on a winning home pitcher with era<4 against a losing visitor picher with era>4.

This revenge or bounce-back or [fill in a good name] system seems to work best with a small line. If you limit bets to +140 and -140 you make fewer bets and make slightly more profit. Long odds (games >+140 or <-140) don't work well. So I only bet 2 of the games yesterday (and lost both). I'm still betting Florida today because of the pitching system mentioned above.

fulkgl
Amazing info. If I had your data I don't think I'd ever leave my computer. In these turnaround games, is there a way to determine if the -1.5 RL would have produced a bigger profit?

I've only save the ML lines and O/U data. If I had RL data I could look into that to.

turnaround status... (not good lately)
5/27 0-2 with games in the (-140+140 range)
0-2 outside
5/28 0-1 outside
5/29 looks like 2 games so far... (still 2 late games to go)
ATL-130
NYY-185
NYY line is outside the (-140+140 range), but ATL looks like it fits.

Here's the 33 game for May (27-6 record +20.16 units)

w 5/1 ARZ+115 SD
w 5/4 TOR BAL-123
w 5/8 LAD+105 CIN
w 5/9 SD-138 CIN
L 5/9 WAS ARZ-134
w 5/10 MIN+137 BAL
w 5/10 DET TX-118
w 5/10 CLE ANA-104
L 5/12 LAD+128 STL
w 5/13 ANA-112 DET
w 5/13 ATL LAD-112
w 5/14 STL+104 NYM
w 5/14 ARZ-118 COL
w 5/14 BOS-117 SEA
L 5/15 MIL+125 PIT
w 5/15 TX MIN-130
w 5/16 FL+129 LAD
w 5/18 MIL WAS-119
w 5/18 ARZ+129 HOU
w 5/18 FL-112 LAD
w 5/18 ANA-136 CLE
w 5/18 TOR MIN-139
w 5/20 ATL BOS-111
w 5/20 WAS TOR-110
L 5/21 ANA LAD-134
w 5/22 NYY+120 NYM
w 5/22 WAS+135 TOR
w 5/24 BOS TOR+106
w 5/24 SD-113 ARZ
w 5/24 CWS+104 ANA
w 5/26 LAD-120 SF
L 5/27 NYM FL+127
L 5/27 LAD ARZ+110

Here's the 9 plays I've discounted because the ML line was <-140 or >+140...
L 5/9 CLE ANA-142
L 5/11 NYM+151 CHC
w 5/20 HOU TX-176
w 5/21 PHL BAL-172
w 5/22 MIL MIN-240
w 5/23 PIT STL-200
L 5/27 WAS+190 STL
L 5/27 BOS+152 NYY
L 5/27 NYM FL-220