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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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NE faced just 7 offenses this season that ranked in points per game at #18 or higher. here is a look at those games, and how many yards per play they averaged vs NE:
6 Arizona 6.1
17 Miami 7.5 (with starting QB)
10 Buffalo 5.3
11 Pitt 5.4 (without starting QB)
10 Buffalo 5.8
18 Seattle 7.0
17 Miami 4.9 (without starting QB)
So if you take away the 2 games when the opponent did not have their starting QB the remaining 5 teams averaged 6.34 yards per play against the vaunted NE defense.
To put that in perspective the high powered offense of Atlanta generates 6.9, and GB generates 6.0
So if you take the average of GB and Atlanta of 6.45 compare that to NE's 6.34, and they have allowed elite offensive numbers to teams that would have an average rank of 12.2. Now consider Pittsburgh ranks at #11 (comparable to the best group of teams NE has faced all season), and those teams put up GB and ATL style yards per play against them.
Remember this is a #1 ranked defense in points allowed, I think after reading this, IT'S A BUNCH OF GARBAGE! Sorry, NE fans, but the numbers spell it out.
So suppose this plays out. What does it do to the NE offense, if the opponent is having offensive success against them? They don't get the ball as much, or for as long as they are used to, and the defense which is used to going against very poor offenses, is having to defend a lot more than they are accustomed to.
So now if we take the facts, and put it up against history we see this:
Playoff teams in week 20 that have allowed 33 or less points in their last 3 games (typically comprised of bad offenses), are 4-10-1 ATS, and here is the biggie, allowing 26.3ppg. So where did the elite defense go?
Take it a step further, and since the 2004 playoffs, these teams are a shocking 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS, allowing 31.4ppg! Best defense? they have lost by an average of 14ppg.
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01-21-17 11:24 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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The New England Patriots host the Pittsburgh Steelers in what will be another fascinating Conference Championship game. They are two of the hottest teams in the league, both undefeated since their Week 10 losses.
The Steelers and their “Killer B’s”—Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, and Chris Boswell (No, that was not error. Give the man his due after kicking six freakin’ field goals last week)—face a Patriots team that is dominant in all three phases of the game. The bad news for Pittsburgh fans is that New England has thrived against Steel City in recent years.
Since 2003, the Patriots are 6-3 ATS and 7-2 straight up (including a 3-0 record at home) with Brady under center versus the Steelers in the regular season and postseason combined (discounting ’08 when Brady was injured). In the most recent game, Brady and Co. defeated Pittsburgh 27-16 and covered the 7.5-point spread, but that was under different conditions. Landry Jones was the starting quarterback, Rob Gronkowski was healthy, and the game was in Pittsburgh.
New England has received the majority of the spread tickets throughout the week and currently is getting 57% of spread bets. The same can’t be said about the spread dollars, which has moved a considerable amount and are split. Pittsburgh is receiving 51% of spread dollars, yet there hasn’t been much fluctuation in the line.
The Patriots moved to -5.5 shortly after opening, but that line has fallen back to the opening number. It’s worth noting that we have not recorded a single steam or reverse line move on our bet signals page, which suggests that public money is responsible for these line moves. There’s a chance we could see some sharp action later in the week when there are higher limits, so continue to monitor these lines.
There’s also some interesting movement in this game’s total. Weather reports indicate that there will be winds stronger than 10 miles per hour throughout the game. Oddsmakers at Bookmaker have already made adjustments based on that report, moving the opening total (50.5) down a half-point.
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01-21-17 11:00 PM |
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Tex
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 4747
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The average Joe is having their best NFL playoffs which in turn has made the last two weeks the roughest playoffs Las Vegas sports books have ever seen. It's been an incredible run, and those bettors have made it well-known what their collectively strategy is for Sunday's conference championship games.
"We're split overall on the Packers-Falcons game," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal, "but if the Packers win paying off on the money-line (+175), parlayed to the Over (61) and then tied to the Patriots covering (-6), it's going to be an ugly day."
That's the doomsday three-team parlay paying out +902 that the books simply can't make up through straight bet wagers on the other sides.
"It's been all Packers money-line with the fans (public) while the sharps have been on the Falcons," Simbal said. "Were 5.5-to-1 on ticket counts with the Packers money-line."
CG Tech's nine books in Las Vegas have theFalcons as 5.5-point home favorites over thePackers, which along with the Westgate SuperBook is the highest number offered in Las Vegas as of Friday afternoon. Most books are at -5 with the South Point offering the only -4.5.
William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada have seen 91 percent of their GB/ATL money-line tickets written on the Packers money-line (+175) as well as 78 percent of the actual cash.
Wynn Resort sports books director John Avello says he's "seeing some good size wagers on the Packers money-line". When Avello says "good size wagers" at a place that houses several whales who get any amount they want, I immediately think six-figures.
Who needs the points with the Packers anyway, right? Although, it was the Packers who needed +3 to cash in the Week 8 meeting at Atlanta when the Falcons won 33-32, the Packers to win outright has been the popular bet throughout town.
It's hard not to buy in to the reasoning and believe in quarterback Aaron Rodgers after saying his team would "run the table" when the Packers were 4-6 and playoff hopes were looking dim. True to his word, Green Bay has won eight straight (7-1 ATS) and made Joe Public a believer.
Perhaps the most intriguing part of the Packers-Falcons game is the monstrous record setting total sitting as high as 61.5 at Boyd Gaming and Station Casinos chain of local casinos. Most books, like CG Technology, are firm at 61.
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"We had sharp action take 'over' 59.5 and also 'under' 61.5. When we've been at 60 or 61 we've had good two-way action. The fans are betting Over."
The last two meetings between MVP candidates Matt Ryan and Rodgers have totaled a whopping 145 points.
"If Atlanta could win by 3, that would be super," said Simbal regarding his best scenario. "It would also help us out in futures because we do the best with them in NFC and Super Bowl."
Sunday's late game features two more elite quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, with thePatriots as consensus six-point home favorites over theSteelers and the public has made it clear who they support here with a number driven up from an opener of -4.5.
"They're betting New England and they can't stop betting New England," said Simbal. "We're at -6 and have over two times the cash on the Patriots. We've also taken a huge Patriots money-line bet (at -230). All the fans are betting the Steelers money-line (+220), but we still need them to win."
The Steelers come into this game on a nine-game win streak (7-1-1 ATS), but the Patriots have won eight straight (7-1 ATS). The most incredible thing about what New England has done this season is go 14-3 ATS when most of the spreads -- when Tom Brady returned in Week 5 -- were inflated by 25 percent of what the true rating suggested.
The Patriots won a Week 7 meeting at Pittsburgh, 27-16, as 7.5-point road favorites in a game that Roethlisberger missed. They last met in the playoffs during Big Ben's rookie season when the Steelers were seeded No. 1 and the Patriots (-3) won 41-27 earning a trip to the Super Bowl.
William Hill books have taken 88 percent of their cash on the game laying the points with the Patriots. The total in the game hasn't been as popular as the NFC game holding steady at 51 with a few books showing 50.5.
Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 12 years.
give a man a fish, you feed him for a day, teach a man to fish, he'll sit in a boat and drink beer all day"
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01-22-17 03:14 PM |
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