**Top Play** (BEST BET)

Florida State (+4) (-110) over UCLA*

*This line is currently available at sportbet and betus. Florida State remains a Top Play at +3.5 or more. I would invest now and buy the hook if necessary.

The Bruins are coming off a huge upset over USC and now must get motivated to play the 6-6 Seminoles. Unfortunately for the UCLA faithful, the Bruins apply to one of my best 'bowl letdown' systems which dictates investing against certain bowl teams following a regular-season finale win over a ranked opponent.
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Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Florida St.) - in a bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.
(26-6 over the last 5 seasons; 81.2%)

This system is 14-1 ATS since 2002 and 49-29 ATS since 1995.
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Getting back to UCLA's upset win over USC, the Bruins are a terrible 0-5 ATS in bowl games following a victory over USC and 2-7 ATS as bowl favorites. Meanwhile, Florida State is a whopping 15-3-1 SU/ATS in games when their win percentage is .500 or less, and Seminole's head coach Bobby Bowden is a terrific 18-8-1 SU in bowl games.

Since 1982, Florida State leads in the country with a 17-6-1 bowl record, including 15-8-1 ATS. While UCLA maintains a significant special teams advantage, Florida State has the superior talent on both sides of the ball and should have additional motivation after being installed as underdogs in this game. Florida State also has a coaching advantage over UCLA head coach Karl Dorrell whose team is 29-20 SU and 25-19 ATS under his leadership.

Invest with confidence! I love the Seminoles in this game.

I like your play alot, when i was looking over this game yesterday FSU realy stood out. If you get a chance osk can you give me a few tips on what you look for in line movements/public money and how I should read them. If your open to the idea, please send me a PM.

This is per SI as of right now. Pinnacle opened at UCLA -5.5. Currently
-3.5.

Total wagers accepted: 27,802

FSU 38%
UCLA 62%

Public is on UCLA, line has moved in UCLA's favor.

some of the stats you use that support your plays, for example,


[ Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Florida St.) - in a bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.
(26-6 over the last 5 seasons; 81.2%)

This system is 14-1 ATS since 2002 and 49-29 ATS since 1995. ]

i'm not sure where you get this from but does it generate the individual games with lines and scores? or is it possible to query this database for a teaser line?

as a teaser player id be interested in how such a system did with a teaser line as well - thanks in advance for your input.

Love seeing you with my Noles, good luck! Hope we get a win!

Osk
I posted on this yesterday but recieved no response.. I was just asking about location and bowls. I like FSU alot and my only hesitation was the location. Being in San Fran, do you think this could adversly effect FSU being on the west coast. Or even do you use location as any influence in your bowl plays?? 5:00pm game so the kickoff is at decent time for FSU. Just wondering.. Thanks

Ucla won thier "Bowl game" for the year against USC a couple of weeks ago. Go Noles !

Unless the creminole 'D' scores or causes a TO in the red zone they might not score. The whole offensive staff are done after this game and I suppose you could take that either way, go out in a blaze of glory or continue to be the most inept offense in the country. Weatherford is starting and he will be lucky to last the 1st half, the Bruins will run him down all night, the great Lorenzo Booker will get less than 60 yds rushing. Other than the under in this game I would wait as there are better games to play coming up. UCLA 13-6.

After watching FSU struggle to even move the chains let alone score points this year vs some pretty inferior teams.............I am having a hard time seeing them score vs this UCLA defense............anytime you get points with FSU in bowl games its worth a look..........but remember this is a very very average at best seminole team............Weatherford and Lee both suck........

My opinion is that the QB position is the very reason FSU (and Miami) have been declining the past five years..................god awful QB play..................

This will be the one, I'm sure of it. I am personally unloading on it. GL to us!!

BIG O, I could not agree more. This is also one of my top plays of the bowl season!!! Took a 4' a while back and don't think I will have to use them?

Good Luck to Us!!

It's money in the BAG$!!

Everyone is talking about the Bruins defense going into this game but the Seminoles are much more imposing. I fully expect to see them come out and shut down the UCLA rushing attack, much like they have previous opponents, and force them to go to the air. In that kind of game, I like the Seminoles.

Another factor may be overconfidence for the Bruins. They managed to beat the Trojans with a strong defensive showing and a very conservative offensive game plan. And, while it had to be nice pulling off such a major upset, the Bruins may feel as if they were held back a little. As a result, they may try and open things up a little under this spotlight. For the record, I don't think it's a good idea!

Even if the Bruins play it safe on offense, the Seminoles will still have the advantage as long as they do the same.

One final thought: Bobby Bowden is over 75 years old and is college football's most accomplished coach. Realistically, this could be his last season. Are his players going to lose what could be his last game, and even worst, make his last season a losing one?

I think not.

Actionbrett:
I think the bowl season is an anomaly as far as reverse line movement is concerned: every single game this bowl season has seen reverse line movement from open to close. I think (and definitely could be wrong) that the opening lines are just high, and tone down closer to game time.

Al McMordie:

Florida State--4*
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Sebastian:

Florida State--200*
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John Fina:

Florida State--3 units
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Good luck!

Akira. Ive come to realize that as well, your correct.

Is that a good thing those guys are on FSU as well?

UCLA is 2-9 against the money line (-17.7 Units) when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
The average score was UCLA 15.1, OPPONENT 22.5 - (Rating = 6*)

UCLA is 4-10 against the money line (-23.0 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
The average score was UCLA 28.1, OPPONENT 33.1 - (Rating = 7*)

i know that fla st did not have a very good year, but i see them winning by 7 or8 points. the info os that you provided just makes the play that much stronger. and also i am going with the under, seeing that fla st is 20-8 under in road games. hope you are doing well osk.

have a great day and a better one tommorrow.

daddydan

just wanted to say oskiem keep up the good work and I tail you alot you hardly ever disapoint and if I do lose on you its only by a point or two. thanx and keep up the good work

I have this as a 10 Star play. First of the year in ncaacf. Fsu played well vs. Florida at home and UCLA has NADA to play for.

I love FSU and may add a ML play too

Fsu +3.5 for me, 2 units, also considering moneyline. Good luck to everyone tonight.