The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
|
|
|
|
|
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
7:45 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals (-135, 8.5)
The Cardinals (10-13) took last night’s series opener 5-3, taking care of business as -115 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Diamondbacks (11-13) hand the ball to lefty Tommy Henry (0-1, 6.87 ERA) and the Cardinals go with fellow southpaw Steven Matz (1-1, 3.60 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -115 home favorite and Arizona +105 road dog. The public sees two evenly matched teams as says “take the plus money with the Snakes.” However, despite 57% of bets backing Arizona, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward St. Louis (-115 to -135). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Cardinals, with pros fading the trendy dog Diamondbacks and instead backing the unpopular home favorite. St. Louis has the better pitching staff (team ERA 3.81 vs 4.02) and specifically the better bullpen (ERA 3.33 vs 4.18). Matz has a 0.00 ERA at home this season compared to 4.80 on the road. The Cardinals have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Sharps are also leaning over, as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -120, signaling a possible rise up to 9. The over is receiving 55% of bets but a whopping 95% of money, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
|
04-23-24 10:00 PM |
|
|
| |
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
9:38 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-155, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
The Orioles (15-7) won last night’s series opener 4-2, cashing as -105 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Orioles start righty Grayson Rodriguez (3-0, 2.63 ERA) and the Angels (9-14) counter with fellow righty Griffin Canning (0-3, 8.05 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -145 road favorite and Los Angeles a +130 home dog. Sharps are riding the red-hot Orioles, who are now 7-1 over their last eight games, steaming Baltimore up from -145 to -155. The Orioles are receiving 93% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars, indicating lopsided one-way support from both Pros and Joes. The Orioles have the better offense (hitting .261 with 35 homers and 126 runs scored vs the Angels hitting .237 with 23 homers and 94 runs scored) as well as the better pitching staff (team ERA 3.84 vs 4.40). Road favorites are 72-36 (67%) with an 18% ROI this season. Baltimore is 9-5 (64%) with an 11% ROI this season as a favorite against teams who missed the postseason the previous year and 55-20 (73%) with a 19% ROI since the start of 2023. Baltimore is 7-3 on the road. Los Angeles is 2-5 at home. Pros are also leaning over, as the total is 8.5 with the over juiced to -115 or -120 depending on the book. The over is receiving only 44% of bets but 76% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. The forecast calls for mid 60s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing out to center at Angel Stadium. The Orioles are 13-7-2 to the over, the 3rd best “over” team in MLB behind the Guardians and D
|
04-23-24 10:00 PM |
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
|