Saturday, 05/25/2024 (501) BOSTON vs. (502) INDIANA
Favoring: INDIANA against the spread.
INDIANA is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season.
The average score was INDIANA 121.8, OPPONENT 116.1 - (Rating = 3*)

Saturday, 05/25/2024 (501) BOSTON vs. (502) INDIANA
Favoring: INDIANA against the spread.
INDIANA is 31-12 ATS (+17.8 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.
The average score was INDIANA 125.2, OPPONENT 118.2 - (Rating = 3*)

Saturday, 05/25/2024 (501) BOSTON vs. (502) INDIANA
Favoring: Over on the total.
INDIANA is 30-13 OVER (+15.7 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was INDIANA 120, OPPONENT 122.8 - (Rating = 2*)

Saturday, 05/25/2024 (501) BOSTON vs. (502) INDIANA
Favoring: Over on the total.
INDIANA is 29-15 OVER (+12.5 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.
The average score was INDIANA 125.2, OPPONENT 118.2 - (Rating = 2*)

The reality is that the Pacers are extremely deep at the point guard position. Andrew Nembhard, who starts at shooting guard, is more of a pure point guard. So, he’s going to be very comfortable if thrust into a heavy on-ball role. And TJ McConnell has been one of Indiana’s best players throughout the course of these playoffs. So, the Pacers will be in good hands as far as game management goes. Nembhard and McConnell will make sure guys are in the right spots and do a good job of setting teammates up for good looks.

The only real concern is the scoring. But it should help that Indiana will be playing at home, where the team hasn’t lost a game in this postseason. The Pacers role players will be comfortable in this building, so you should see some better shooting than normal out of a lot of players. And the Celtics haven’t had much of an answer for Pascal Siakam. He had 28 points in Game 2 and should find a way to put up big numbers here.

It’s also hard to ignore how teams have played against teams that have been missing their star players in these playoffs. It feels like every team has slipped up at least once in that situation, and I can see it happening here. But overall, I just think this is a little too many points for the Pacers to be getting in this building.

While I trust Nembhard and McConnell to do a good job setting the table for the Pacers, I’d be surprised if Siakam isn’t featured a little more heavily in Game 3. And while that should mean a big night as a scorer, Siakam is also a good playmaker on the wing. That said, this feels like a really low assist total for the forward to clear in Game 3. After all, Siakam had seven assists in Game 1 of this series, and that was a game in which Haliburton played. And overall, Siakam is averaging 3.7 assists per game throughout these playoffs. He’s just a much better passer than he is given credit for, and I think he’ll handle his business in the assist column in Game 3. This is also a doable number for Siakam to reach even if Haliburton does play. That’s a nice little bonus.

Bet: Siakam Over 3.5 Assists (-112)

Sources: Indiana Pacers All-NBA G Tyrese Haliburton is unlikely to play Game 3 vs. the Boston Celtics tonight with a left hamstring injury.

Since 2005, road favorites in the NBA Playoffs are 182-152-8 (55%) ATS

But only 17-20-1 ATS in the Conference Finals.