Well here it is, the game we all hope for, a game 7 to decide on who goes to the cup. You would think that home team would be a slam dunk with a high winning percentage, but lets see what history tells us.
Not as high as you would think, the home team in this situation is hitting at a 57.5% and with a very low sample of 30 games for the Semifinal round it hits at a much better 63.3 %. But the Pens are a huge -210 for tonight, so that's a huge no go !!!! Even with using the Semifinal numbers it's still not enough to cover that line.
Now the public is all over the Pens like you would expect and the oddsmakers have opened the line to show that, but no way in hell should they be favored this high. The public has moved this line at least .20 across the board.
Remember home doesn't mean squat in the NHL and you are going to pay the premium price if you take the Pens, but once again that huge payback on TB is the play in my opinion and the opinion of history. But if you just gotta take Pens and you think they will win, make sure to play them on the -1 line instead of the -.5